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TopicCharacter Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 10
Master Moltar
12/08/18 12:51:34 PM
#9:


Kleenexs Analysis

I can see this match going either way and you can probably make an argument for either character winning. Based on their two matches, we can set Mega Man and Pikachu to being roughly 50/50 - the results were close enough that they could flip back and for depending on which day you ran the match or even what hour the match was started. So given that, where do we put Pikachu on the Nintendo hierarchy? Is the stronger than Bowser? My gut reaction is yes. I think hes looked better in all his indirect matches this year, and I think hed edge out Bowser in a direct match. It would probably be fairly close though. Is it enough to close the the ~55/45 gap we saw between Bowser and Crono? Im not convinced. I think this probably ends up something like 52/48, maybe 51/49 in favor of Crono. If PIkachu was here Id be a lot more worried, I think the novelty of Pikachu beating Crono is more dangerous and might have pushed him over that hump. Im not sure Mega Man has it in him to do that, especially because Mega Man and Crono both have fairly similar trends. Id expect whoever is ahead after the first 30 minutes of this match to win.

Kleenexs Prediction: Crono with 51%

Guest's Analysis - Luster Soldier

This may be the closest we get to having a true coin flip match. It could easily go either way. Mega Man is expected to get 55.41% on Yoshi by going through the MM/Pikachu rematch. Bowser has to get 50.70% or 50.84% Yoshi for Crono to be equal to Mega Man. I could see Bowser getting above that on Yoshi, but Yoshi/Luigi/Bowser have always been very close to each other that it is quite possible Bowser hasn't boosted at all.

Mega Man winning this match would be better just to avoid a Crono/Cloud rematch. Mega Man/Cloud is more interesting as the match has not happened in a 1v1 format. Only a fairly small percentage of registered users would even vote Mega Man to avoid this rematch, but it could be one intangible in Mega Man's favor when the match could be decided by less than 50 votes. Based on general voting trends among registered/anonymous users, I think Mega Man will have the edge with registered users. Mega Man also has better rally potential outside of GameFAQs than Crono. For a late match clutch situation, both characters have shown some clutch ability in the past. Crono activated his clutch to get his revenge on Vincent in 2008 while Mega Man out-clutched Charizard in 2013.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Cloud Strife

Luster Soldier's Second Chance Bracket: Crono

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Mega Man - 50.09%

Crew Consensus: Mega Man wins in a 3-2 split.
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Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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