LogFAQs > #913773172

transiences Analysis

The Zelda match really makes Snake look good. She's looking like a possible #2, which is crazy. Snake was within a few votes of her so he could be #3.

There's been a lot of back and forth about Mario, Samus, Tifa and Sephiroth, and I just think I prefer to trust my priors over trying to sort out that tangled web. Sephiroth isn't good this year but I don't think he's below Tifa. I just think the fanbase went with the protagonist over the antagonist there. I don't put a lot of stock in it. SFF seems dead unless you're in the literal same game, and so I think Mario and Samus is just a legit result. I don't really think that hard about it, honestly. Samus has been talked about as this theoretically stronger character since 2004's match with Cloud and she's never been able to put it together. You'll have to prove it to me before I give you the benefit of the doubt.

That said, I'm too invested in the Samus over Snake matchup to pick against Samus. That was my pet pick from the beginning and I'm sticking with it. The winner here vs. Mario and Zelda -- in whatever order -- is going to be really fun. Snake gives us the purest matchup but Samus feels like the underdog trying to right the wrongs of the past. Then again, maybe that's Zelda. Go Samus.

transience's prediction: Samus with 52.67%

Leonharts Analysis

After seeing Snake lose to Zelda right out of the gate, my faith in him was a little shaken, but now shes beating Mario, so my confidence is back! Ive seen people talk about how Samus pulled rank on Snake in 2006, and shed pull rank again if need be, but I dont agree with that. I know Snake vaulted into the top tier because of Smash, but I dont think that means hes suddenly subject to the Nintendo hierarchy. He hasnt really shown any indications of it outside of potentially that match with Samus.

I think what happened against Samus was similar to what happened between Mario and Sephiroth in 2005. Both Samus and Sephiroth underperformed in the last couple matches of the female bracket and the Villains Contest, respectfully. Samus had a good excuse against Tifa, at least, but still, she didnt look good. Yet after Mario and Snake dominated their brackets, they both lost easily in against Seph and Samus, so what caused that? I dont know what it is, but I suppose theres a part of the voter base that feels comfortable voting the other way as long as the other character isnt in danger of losing. Weve seen random overperformances by losing characters in every contest (people would probably point to Ganondorf/Chun-Li or maybe Bowser/2B this year as examples). Yet when they face the big boys (or girls), their strength comes back. I dont understand it, but it seems to happen.

I also think Snake has gotten stronger since 2006. He outperformed Samus against a common opponent in Cloud in 2010, and he outperformed her directly in the 2013 finals. Yes, I know the Draven rallies muddle the numbers, but Snake was already well ahead of Samus even before Hayter got involved. The one thing that gives me pause is the fact that Nintendo is in a better place now than they were in 2013 or even 2010. The Switch is huge and Smash Ultimate literally just released yesterday. That being said, I think Ultimates release could benefit Snake because of the whole EVERYONE IS HERE THING since it was a big surprise that Nintendo brought him back and people were hyped to have him again as a result. Im going to stand by Snake here because hes still our one hope for a finals that isnt completely boring and riddled with SFF. This is his final mission.

Leonharts Vote: Solid Snake

Leonharts Prediction: Solid Snake with 51.15%
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Moltar Status: contest hype
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