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TopicTsunami does blind playthroughs of VNs--Grand Revival [spoilers] [ztd] [aa6]
TsunamiXXVIII
02/03/19 5:33:17 PM
#32:


Still, having the results of Q-team's time in the decontamination room fresh on the page when I started Monty Hall, I was inherently inclined to compare the two. These games do that a lot, frame the same theme differently in different parts of the game. 999 did that especially often, with the rats and the detergent and the funyarinpa and all of that. The thing is, the Monty Hall problem and the Sleeping Beauty problem are exact opposites. Or rather, the solutions are; the reasons are the same. In both cases... the initial probability doesn't change. There was always a 1 in 3 chance, or in this case, a 1 in 10 chance, that your initial choice was correct, and so with all but one wrong choice revealed to be wrong, the odds favor switching to the other unknown. And there was always a 50% chance that the coin landed on heads, so the fact that there are three possible situations changes nothing. There are, after all, two variables. Was it heads or was it tails? Is it Monday, or is it Tuesday? Since the experiment terminates on Monday if it's heads, the combination of Tuesday/heads is automatically ruled out. Leaving, it would seem, twice as many options with tails as with heads... but by the same token, twice as many where it's Monday as where it's Tuesday. So what if the question asked wasn't "what did the coin land on?" but "what day is it?" If the chances of the former question's answer being "tails" are, in fact, 2 in 3, then so are the chances of the latter's being "Monday". But whether the question will be asked on Tuesday is dependent on the coin being tails. You can frame it thusly: "If the coin was heads, there is a 100% chance that it is Monday. If the coin was tails, there is a 50% chance that it is Monday. Therefore, there is a 75% chance that it is Monday." And then it becomes clear that the missing 25% from automatically ruling out Tuesday/heads was all added to Monday/heads. That option has a 50% chance, and the other two are 25% each. Even I didn't bother analyzing it that closely when I saw it; I just instinctively said "it's 50%" and left it there. Hm, the "if A, then 100% chance of B; if ~A, then 50% chance of B" sounds an awful lot like what happened to D-Team in the incinerator room...

Speaking of D-Team, we're joining them next. For... Force Quit?! Holy crap I don't know if we have the information for that yet!

No casualties yet. Past midnight again; 00:03. No memories past the vote at 13:30. Probably follows the result of all teams refraining from pushing the buttons in the decontamination rooms. The Force Quit Box is open! There's text on the monitor. Force Quit program on standby. To initiate, two key items must be set. Each is a mother's memento. Sigma asks if any of that rings a bell to Diana, and she starts screaming in pain, her head hurting. I know Phi has one, but...I don't know the other. And I don't know exactly what to enter for Phi's, anyway. Looks like we have a 6-letter word and a 9-letter word, so I'm guessing Phi's is "Amulet"? Only other words I can think of don't fit properly. Well, I guess we'll jump to Q team oh shit this is Force Quit, too. Well, we only have one unexplored fragment on Q's side, so we're more likely to have the necessary info. 00:03 again. Eric says that the fact that the death count is still zero is worth celebrating with a shot. Q mopes about him rubbing it in. Eric thinks he's referring to being a minor, but actually it's that his helmet has no mouthpiece. The Force Quit Box says that the central control computer must be booted to run the program. Q has an idea and runs off to the Quantum Computer Room. The Central Control Computer looks disturbingly like GLaDOS. Q remembers how to do it. Get the cover off, and... We've gotta enter an 8-digit code. Damnit, I've got nothing. Again. Looking at the files, it seems that there are translations provided for the Latin phrases, not that they help much. Well, one might, but not yet.
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