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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 224: The Congressional Contempt for Political Buggery
red sox 777 05/07/19 1:44:49 AM #59:	metroid composite posted... red sox 777 posted... Net is massively in favor of Dems. I just checked. California is not even in the top 10 bluest states. (Texas also isn't in the top 10 reddest states, if you're curious). https://www.politico.com/gallery/10-bluest-reddest-states?slide=0 Though regardless, I see no reason to exclude California. It's not geographically isolated like Hawaii or Alaska. It's not ideologically isolated; nearby states have similar politics to the areas of California that they border. It's not religiously isolated like Utah. It has an outsized influence on culture including political culture (on both the left and on the right--Ann Coulter and Ben Shapiro and Tomi Lahren all live in or moved to LA last I checked). Because it has a huge population. Multiply that by the percentage gap and you get a huge net in favor of Dems from CA. It's about 1/8 of the population. If CA is D+40 (traditionally, it's not that high, but for Trump it probably is), and the country is D+4, the country without CA is probably going to be about R+1. It matters if a poll of the 49 states not including CA is better correlated to the Electoral College winner than a poll of all 50 states. Which it may well be at this point. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:921563469] in Politics C... [t:77687499]...</cite> <quote><cite>metroid composite posted...</cite> <quote><cite>red sox 777 posted...</cite> <quote>Net is massively in favor of Dems.</quote> I just checked. California is not even in the top 10 bluest states. (Texas also isn't in the top 10 reddest states, if you're curious). https://www.politico.com/gallery/10-bluest-reddest-states?slide=0 Though regardless, I see no reason to exclude California. It's not geographically isolated like Hawaii or Alaska. It's not ideologically isolated; nearby states have similar politics to the areas of California that they border. It's not religiously isolated like Utah. It has an outsized influence on culture including political culture (on both the left and on the right--Ann Coulter and Ben Shapiro and Tomi Lahren all live in or moved to LA last I checked).</quote> Because it has a huge population. Multiply that by the percentage gap and you get a huge net in favor of Dems from CA. It's about 1/8 of the population. If CA is D+40 (traditionally, it's not that high, but for Trump it probably is), and the country is D+4, the country without CA is probably going to be about R+1. It matters if a poll of the 49 states not including CA is better correlated to the Electoral College winner than a poll of all 50 states. Which it may well be at this point. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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