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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 224: The Congressional Contempt for Political Buggery
Suprak the Stud 05/14/19 3:26:05 PM #306:	I saw this last week and forgot to post it. An interesting "how good is this senator in terms of approval above the state average". Some good news for Dems in here and some not so good news. Unsurprisingly, Manchin ranks at the very top https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-every-senator-ranks-according-to-popularity-above-replacement-senator/ Looking at some people up for election in 2020: Doug Jones is surprisingly (to me at least) +6 in Alabama. He is actually the second highest rank senator just below Manchin (and just above Klobuchar and Tester). I don't think that is enough to save him in Alabama of all places and I expect this to drop when they start hammering him closer to the election, but he should actually keep the race close. It is at least worth keeping an eye on his favorability going into the election because this is much, much better than I thought it'd be. Susan Collins is +13 in Maine. This is why I am not actually optimistic about taking Maine from the republicans. She's extremely popular still and the democrats don't even have a good candidate to put against her yet. I might actually drop this seat below both IA and NC just because of how strong she is. Cory Gardner is currently even in Colorado. Yum yum yum give me that senate seat. Joni Ernst is only +3 in Iowa (a state with a +6 partisan lean for Republicans). She's vulnerable depending on the candidate and also on how the Dems do in Iowa as a whole. They did amazing in 2018 and if Trump keeps up his tariffs (which hurt farmers more than any other group) I could see the right democrat senator riding off the right democratic presidential nominee to flip the seat. Martha McSally is even in Arizona. I feel like there are two really good candidates in Arizona that, if they run against her, have pretty good odds of taking it. Sinema already beat her and Arizona is trending more blue by the year. This is a really good opportunity here. Thom Tillis is only +2 in NC. That's another possibility, but NC has burned me in the past. He might be too conservative for what the state has become, but it really will depend on the candidate here. --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." <cite>Suprak the Stud posted [p:921888404] in Politics C... [t:77687499]...</cite> <quote>I saw this last week and forgot to post it. An interesting "how good is this senator in terms of approval above the state average". Some good news for Dems in here and some not so good news. Unsurprisingly, Manchin ranks at the very top https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-every-senator-ranks-according-to-popularity-above-replacement-senator/ Looking at some people up for election in 2020: Doug Jones is surprisingly (to me at least) +6 in Alabama. He is actually the second highest rank senator just below Manchin (and just above Klobuchar and Tester). I don't think that is enough to save him in Alabama of all places and I expect this to drop when they start hammering him closer to the election, but he should actually keep the race close. It is at least worth keeping an eye on his favorability going into the election because this is much, much better than I thought it'd be. Susan Collins is +13 in Maine. This is why I am not actually optimistic about taking Maine from the republicans. She's extremely popular still and the democrats don't even have a good candidate to put against her yet. I might actually drop this seat below both IA and NC just because of how strong she is. Cory Gardner is currently even in Colorado. Yum yum yum give me that senate seat. Joni Ernst is only +3 in Iowa (a state with a +6 partisan lean for Republicans). She's vulnerable depending on the candidate and also on how the Dems do in Iowa as a whole. They did amazing in 2018 and if Trump keeps up his tariffs (which hurt farmers more than any other group) I could see the right democrat senator riding off the right democratic presidential nominee to flip the seat. Martha McSally is even in Arizona. I feel like there are two really good candidates in Arizona that, if they run against her, have pretty good odds of taking it. Sinema already beat her and Arizona is trending more blue by the year. This is a really good opportunity here. Thom Tillis is only +2 in NC. That's another possibility, but NC has burned me in the past. He might be too conservative for what the state has become, but it really will depend on the candidate here. --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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