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Topic	azuarc ranks your future VGMC nominations (also, [VGMC])
PIayer_0 02/16/20 3:34:17 PM #134:	whoops accidentally posted early on the previous one Just for fun, I decided to run some alternative bracket scenarios for VGMC 13 based on each song's X-Stats (thanks to Janus for providing those last year). Of course, X-Stats are based on your vote share in a directly or indirectly extrapolated match against the champion, so close eliminations are more important than how far you actually got. A look at the top 16 shows how X-Stats are biased this way: https://i.imgur.com/33mDNji.png Since EXSPHERE_NOSURGE will always win using this ranking, I can shake things up by adding a random disturbance to each song, where a spread of 5 means a random adjustment between -5 and +5. To start, though, I just wanted to see how the retirees might change if I used the X-Stats as is (spread set to 0), but with seeding order into the bracket randomized instead. From there, the spreadsheet just simulates each match with the higher X-Stats always winning. https://i.imgur.com/ZO2vYw8.png Scenario A1: DNF FW15C makes the finals; other new retirees are That Person's Name Is, ENDYMION, Life Will Change, Mt. Vesuvius, Full Base, A. Rene, and Laurara's Dance. Favourable bracket definitely helping A. Rene here, who lost 24-25 to Gokinjo Battle in round 2 of the actual bracket, a respectable opponent but not exactly a powerhouse! https://i.imgur.com/hVORLZr.png Scenario A2: New new retirees are Snake Eater, Kill Command, and The Final Song, with Mt. Vesuvius, DNF FW15C, Life Will Change, and ENDYMION returning from Scenario A1. The Final Song redeemed after losing instantly to the champion during the contest! https://i.imgur.com/QphYoGC.png Scenario A3: New new retirees are Rhuzerv, Under the Moon, The End of the Raging Waves (woohoo), and Gokinjo Battle, with DNF FW15C, ENDYMION, A. Rene (again wow), and Full Base returning from previous scenarios. Groove Coaster 2's Under the Moon lost 21-26 to Pac Twin Attack in round 1, but somehow makes the retirement round here! You see quite a few names now who lost close matches to "strong" opponents in the actual bracket, like That Person's Name Is (23-25 ENDYMION in round 2), Laurara's Dance (25-30 Full Base in round 1), Full Base (23-23, 24-25 New World Order in round 2), Snake Eater (20-25 Innocence & Emptiness in round 2), and The Final Song (17-23 EXSPHERE_NOSURGE in round 2). Now let's have a bit more fun by adding the random spread of 5 to get some new winners! https://i.imgur.com/efxF0rp.png Scenario B1: Innocence & Emptiness over Life Will Change in the finals, with notable retirees TIGAR, Studiopolis Zone Act 1, and What Am I Fighting For. Not sure how likely this one would be! https://i.imgur.com/SVi0Kvd.png Scenario B2: ENDYMION over Maze Cave in the finals, with notable retirees I'll Face Myself, Steel and Snare (azuarc must have rigged it), and Escaping the Courtyard Garden. Nice job Maze Cave! https://i.imgur.com/36ajrYv.png Scenario B3: Full Base over DNF FW15C in the finals, with notable retirees Gangplank Galleon, Field of Hopes and Dreams, Knight of a Foreign Country, and M4 (Part II). Go M4!!! Shoutouts to ENDYMION for retiring in every single simulation, with Life Will Change and DNF FW15C not too far behind at 5/6 retirements. I should also mention admirable upstarts Full Base and Snake Eater with 4/6 and 3/6 retirements after only making round 2 originally! --- -Abraham Lincoln <cite>PIayer_0 posted [p:934463448] in azuarc ran... [t:78277942]...</cite> <quote>whoops accidentally posted early on the previous one Just for fun, I decided to run some alternative bracket scenarios for VGMC 13 based on each song's X-Stats (thanks to Janus for providing those last year). Of course, X-Stats are based on your vote share in a directly or indirectly extrapolated match against the champion, so close eliminations are more important than how far you actually got. A look at the top 16 shows how X-Stats are biased this way: https://i.imgur.com/33mDNji.png Since EXSPHERE_NOSURGE will always win using this ranking, I can shake things up by adding a random disturbance to each song, where a spread of 5 means a random adjustment between -5 and +5. To start, though, I just wanted to see how the retirees might change if I used the X-Stats as is (spread set to 0), but with seeding order into the bracket randomized instead. From there, the spreadsheet just simulates each match with the higher X-Stats always winning. https://i.imgur.com/ZO2vYw8.png Scenario A1: DNF FW15C makes the finals; other new retirees are That Person's Name Is, ENDYMION, Life Will Change, Mt. Vesuvius, Full Base, A. Rene, and Laurara's Dance. Favourable bracket definitely helping A. Rene here, who lost 24-25 to Gokinjo Battle in round 2 of the actual bracket, a respectable opponent but not exactly a powerhouse! https://i.imgur.com/hVORLZr.png Scenario A2: New new retirees are Snake Eater, Kill Command, and The Final Song, with Mt. Vesuvius, DNF FW15C, Life Will Change, and ENDYMION returning from Scenario A1. The Final Song redeemed after losing instantly to the champion during the contest! https://i.imgur.com/QphYoGC.png Scenario A3: New new retirees are Rhuzerv, Under the Moon, The End of the Raging Waves (woohoo), and Gokinjo Battle, with DNF FW15C, ENDYMION, A. Rene (again wow), and Full Base returning from previous scenarios. Groove Coaster 2's Under the Moon lost 21-26 to Pac Twin Attack in round 1, but somehow makes the retirement round here! You see quite a few names now who lost close matches to "strong" opponents in the actual bracket, like That Person's Name Is (23-25 ENDYMION in round 2), Laurara's Dance (25-30 Full Base in round 1), Full Base (23-23, 24-25 New World Order in round 2), Snake Eater (20-25 Innocence & Emptiness in round 2), and The Final Song (17-23 EXSPHERE_NOSURGE in round 2). Now let's have a bit more fun by adding the random spread of 5 to get some new winners! https://i.imgur.com/efxF0rp.png Scenario B1: Innocence & Emptiness over Life Will Change in the finals, with notable retirees TIGAR, Studiopolis Zone Act 1, and What Am I Fighting For. Not sure how likely this one would be! https://i.imgur.com/SVi0Kvd.png Scenario B2: ENDYMION over Maze Cave in the finals, with notable retirees I'll Face Myself, Steel and Snare (azuarc must have rigged it), and Escaping the Courtyard Garden. Nice job Maze Cave! https://i.imgur.com/36ajrYv.png Scenario B3: Full Base over DNF FW15C in the finals, with notable retirees Gangplank Galleon, Field of Hopes and Dreams, Knight of a Foreign Country, and M4 (Part II). Go M4!!! Shoutouts to ENDYMION for retiring in every single simulation, with Life Will Change and DNF FW15C not too far behind at 5/6 retirements. I should also mention admirable upstarts Full Base and Snake Eater with 4/6 and 3/6 retirements after only making round 2 originally! --- -Abraham Lincoln</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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