LogFAQs > #934929091

apolloooo posted...

how underreported are the actual cases in your estimation? in and outside china

how are they actually testing it and whether is it accurate ?

is the re-infection rate and mortality as bad as they say?

are we all going to die?

It's impossible to say. Alot of the Chinese data comes from the Chinese cdc. Typically the medical community is fairly reliable but take that for what it's worth. That's why I'm waiting to see what the Italian and South Korean data looks like. Last I read out of 800 something south Koreans, the case fatality rate was like 0.9% which is better than some of. The Chinese data which ranges greatly, but averages out to about 2%. Jama has a nice paper with the Chinese data summarized.

I don't know about reinfection but for mortality...the numbers I've seen have ranged pretty greatly but 1-3% is a safe estimate. This number is much higher in population above 70 and 80 years old, and with comorbid conditions. Young healthy people tend to be fine. 80%of cases are mild, 15% are severe and 5% are critical. The fact that this California person had it with no known exposure I think suggests that there are mild cases out there that aren't being diagnosed.

The only testing centers are at the cdc so the tests have to be sent out. I'm not sure about the sensitivity and specific data but I think that's being worked on now. The turn around time I believe is like 3 days from the time the test is sent off. It's difficult to determine who to test because these symptoms are so nonspecific. You'd lose count of how many times an urgent care or ER doc heard about complains of "fever, cough, chest pain" on a daily basis.