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Round 1 Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain vs. Dead Cells

Moltars Analysis

MGSV is going to eventually disappoint, but it has such a layup path that it should look good for a while. Its first match is against an indie game, which actually didnt look terrible in its GotY polls. Still, MGS is way too popular to blow it against one of those.

Moltars Bracket: Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain

Moltars Prediction: Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain 67%

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transiences Analysis

MGS5 bombed in 2015 relative to expectations but thankfully got a pretty easy road to round 3 and a rematch with Dark Souls. Phantom Pain has great gameplay but this game proves that people don't come to Metal Gear for gameplay. They come for crazy Solid Snake/Big Boss/Kojima madness and MGS5 largely does away with all of that in place of a great open world game. Modern gameplay mechanics aren't a replacement for good atmosphere and storytelling and so this is a bit of a bomb with us.

It won't matter against Dead Cells, a run-based Metroidvania that's pretty hard and not really our thing. It's really highly respected in the right circles and is an example of Steam early access success in the 2d space. But.. that's not really what we want. We like Symphony of the Night but we like it because it's got a great feel and sense of place, not because the dash and dodge mechanics are tight as hell. MGS5 probably can't blow it out like other weak indies just because MGS5 left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths but it won't have any actual trouble with Dead Cells. I don't think it gets embarrassed quite like KH3 or Sonic Mania.

transience's prediction: Metal Gear Solid 5 with 73.01%

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Leonharts Analysis

I appreciate the joke Allen made here by pairing Dead Cells with a Metal Gear Solid game. I assume he did it on purpose anyway! Anyway, Metal Gear Solid V was widely viewed as a disappointment, although it still has its ardent fans who defend the quality of the gameplay despite the fact that the story was blatantly unfinished. Its so weird to see it being given one of the weakest fourpacks in the contest where it wound up being the favorite to advance, but here we are.

Can Dead Cells be the next indie game to score a big upset? Its so hard to tell when its going to strike! Its apparently a roguelike Metroidvania that was inspired by the Binding of Isaac, the last indie game we thought was going to beat the mainstream game but flopped. The game apparently sold really well on the Switch in particular, and it did quite well in the indies poll a couple years ago, finishing a close second to Celeste. Has MGSV deteriorated even more in the last five years since the last time we saw it in a contest? Its very possible since it might now be viewed as the game that killed the series. I still think the Metal Gear name is enough to get it through, but I wont be surprised if Dead Cells pulls it off.

Leonharts Vote: Metal Gear Solid V

Leonharts Prediction: Metal Gear Solid V with 55.55%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Weve already seen MGSV in action in a few contest matches, and theres only so far attaching yourself to a popular series can take you. I dont think MGSV is all that well regarded after the fact, and its definitely losing to Dark Souls (again). But how will it fare against Dead Souls...er...Cells? I think Dead Cells is on the higher rung of indie games in the bracket. People like that game, and it was pretty popular for a while during the summer it came out. The game also just had some DLC come out not too long ago, which might help things. I dont think its capable of beating MGSV, but I definitely think it can do a good job of embarrassing it. This almost sort of feels like a Dragon Age/Ori situation, but MGSV probably hasnt rubbed people the wrong way as much as Bioware has, so itll probably be fine. Probably.

Kleenexs Prediction: Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain with 57.50%

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Guests Analysis MetalmindStats

This match in a series of contrasting bullet points:

• The big question here is about Metal Gear Solid Vs strength; the game scored 26% on Link to the Past through Dark Souls in 2015, which is respectable by GotD II standards.
• However, that was during its brief honeymoon phase, and MGSV has become wildly divisive since then. From what I gather, its actually a solid sandbox game, but it totally misses the essence of Metal Gear Solid. Combine that with the whole Kojima/Konami drama, and I anticipate MGSV having turned into an antivote magnet and dropping off hard.
• Then again, Fallout 4 and its 71.5% on VVVVVV does provide some light at the end of the tunnel for antivote-susceptible games against mid-level indies. Perhaps Metal Gear Solid V will prove more analogous to Fallout 4 than to Dragon Age: Inquisition or Final Fantasy XV.
• On the other hand, a Fallout 4 comparison does not look good for Metal Gear Solid V - the former bested the latter on all platforms in 2015 GotY voting, even for the PS4, which is MGSs primary platform versus Fallouts tertiary platform. Also, Fallout 4 at least stayed true to its predecessors, and so should have less backlash than MGSV right now.
• Opponents also matter in these types of matches. Dead Cells is a rather new roguelite, whereas VVVVVV was a player in the indie boom, and the latters funny title might have swayed some apathy votes.
• That being said, Dead Cells is also a Metroidvania, and voters have grown to appreciate that genre in particular, as evidenced by the last few contests. On top of that, Dead Cells almost beat Celeste in the indie poll of 2018 GotY voting, and Celeste has a certain prestige and particularly fanbase thats never really been there for VVVVVV.

I tried to make those bullet points balanced, but I think its become obvious which way Im leaning here. Metal Gear Solid V should win alright, but not exactly with a bullet - more in a fashion befitting its subtitle.

Prediction: Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain wins with 55.58%

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Crew Consensus: Snake yells at Dead Cells

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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/