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TopicGame of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2
Master Moltar
04/09/20 6:16:23 PM
#453:


Round 1 Uncharted 4: A Thief's End vs. Mario Kart 8

Moltars Analysis

Fairly important R1 match here, as the winner is also likely to win in Round 2!

Uncharted has never been that strong of a series on this site, and the last time we saw Uncharted 4, it was getting whooped by FF15 and Pokemon Sun/Moon, which isnt impressive. My guess is that Mario Kart would be closer to, if not stronger than, those games in strength. The problem is that MK8 also hasnt looked great in its previous showings, but it also keeps getting matched with much stronger Nintendo competition.

Its rare to see Mario Kart get put up against non-Nintendo competition, and I think it can step up in this case. Mario Kart isnt a favorite among Nintendo fans, and compared to other series like Zelda and Mario and Smash its going to look bad because the series ranks lower in their minds. Yep, thats the good old Nintendo hierarchy for you. Now that Mario Kart is facing something outside of that, Nintendo fans should be supporting it.

There may be some comparison to DMC5/DKCTF here, but Mario Kart is a much, much stronger franchise than DKC, both on and off GameFAQs.

Moltars Bracket: Mario Kart 8

Moltars Prediction: Mario Kart 8 56%

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transiences Analysis

This match feels real dangerous. The winner could easily take two rounds if FF14 is a bust, which is very possible. But they could both also bomb pretty hard.

Let's start with what is probably the more predictable entrant. Uncharted has a history of doing OK in these contests. The strongest game in the series is probably Uncharted 2 and it disappointed in 2015, but it didn't straight up bomb. It struggled with Legend of Dragoon and SF4 before going down softly to Halo. Uncharted 4 felt a little long in the tooth by the time it came. It was well received and was a distant third in its GOTY poll to FFXV and Pokemon Sun/Moon, but that's not awful.

Mario Kart 8. This is one of the four Nintendo games that could randomly go on a run and ruin the carefully constructed bottom half of the bracket. Mario Kart has never been too strong here unless we're talking about Mario Kart 64 and maybe Super Mario Kart. It's very Pokemon-ish in that regard. People play the Mario Kart games, they like them, but nobody really loves them. 8's poll results are poor - but they're also terrible matchups for Mario Kart. 2014 saw it lose to Bayonetta 2, but Smash 4 was in the poll. 2015's game contest had it face Mario 64, and honestly, getting 20% on Mario 64 feels like an accomplishment compared to some of the blowouts we've seen in this contest.

There's a real Nintendo fear here, and I get it. Everybody has played MK8. It's sold like 30 million copies or something stupid on Switch, more than Odyssey or BOTW. It's one of the best Mario Karts we've had in a while. Meanwhile, Uncharted 4 is... okay, and if Mario Kart bombs, it'll be there to clean up. This is a bit of an overreaction, but I'm not especially impressed with Last of Us 2's performance today against what should be a weakling in Crusader Kings 2. In fact, you could point to most modern action games -- Arkham City, Assassin's Creed Odyssey, Last of Us 2 -- and draw a broad conclusion that these games just aren't that good. Uncharted 4 feels long in the tooth.

But... I don't trust Mario Kart. I haven't been able to ever since it dropped that 2006 series match to Mega Man, when it had probably the two strongest games. I don't think this site really likes it. It's totally strong enough to win here, especially if Uncharted lays an egg. I think the default apathy vote may push towards Mario Kart, and I wouldn't be super surprised if it blows UC4 out with the way this site is.

But I actually think UC4 is undervalued in its polls, since it's stuck with FFXV. We saw FFXV do much better vs. Sun/Moon when UC4 was taken out of the poll. It's a PS4 exclusive, but we also saw God of War do pretty well as a single player game vs.a big Nintendo franchise. I actually see this match as a weaker version of that FFXV-Sun/Moon matchup, and I think UC4 might have enough to pull it off. Plus, maybe picking it will stop the inevitable crew curse! You can thank me later.

transience's prediction: Uncharted 4 with 52.11%

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Leonharts Analysis

This is probably the most important debatable round 1 match because the winner here has a chance to win again next round. My initial gut instinct was Uncharted 4 since it did pretty well in 2016 GOTY, and its the best-selling PS4 exclusive game since it was packaged with a lot of bundles. Even my fiance has played this game! But its not like Uncharted 2 was all that strong, and 4 will almost certainly be weaker.

On the other hand, Im skeptical of the strength of any Mario Kart that isnt the first two. Mario Kart is always one of the top sellers of any Nintendo system, but I dont think we ever get really attached to them or nostalgic for them aside from Super Mario Kart or Mario Kart 64. Theyre fun to play for a while, but when the next one comes out, we all completely forget about the previous one. Fortunately for Mario Kart 8, its still the currently active game in the franchise, so that will help it. I guess Ill stick with Mario Kart 8 since thats whats in my bracket, but I honestly dont have much confidence in either game here.

Leonharts Vote: Uncharted 4

Leonharts Prediction: Mario Kart 8 with 56.11%


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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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