LogFAQs > #937481150

AFC East

1. Miami Dolphins
2. New York Jets
3. New England Patriots
4. Buffalo Bills

Stop me if you've seen this before, but the Dolphins lost a lot of talent over the offseason. OLBs D.J. Williams and Daryl Smith retired, C Weston Richburg and top reserve DE Cassius Marsh were taken in RFA, DT Ndamukong Suh and MLB Paul Worrilow left in free agency, and top offensive reserves in HB Eddie Lacy and OT Eric Fisher were traded during the draft for what I assume were draft pick trading restrictions and roster space issues. A mass exodus of talent has occurred every offseason since the wave of retirements after S7, and the Dolphins have ultimately been fine each season having made the playoffs and multiple SBs during that span. I would be stunned if they had a losing season, especially with them running back the same offense with Richburg being replaced with RotY finalist Laurent Duvernay-T (who was an injury replacement for RG Kendall Simmons). What worries me is they are bringing in a whole new LB corps. It's a good thing for the Dolphins that they are bringing back their starting secondary and 3/4 of the DL, but the Dolphins are starting two rookies and a second year player with 12 tackles to his name. If the D slips because of them, they could lose out on the division for the second time in three seasons. If that happens, they should definitely be in line for a wild card spot given they face the worst division as their non-conference opponent (AFC South) while other leading wild card hopefuls have to deal with the NFC East or NFC West.

I really wanted to talk myself into picking the Jets here for the division crown. I'm really feeling them this season. They were the most injured team in the league last season, and they still started 4-4 before inexplicably losing seven straight games. Statistically, they were far from a bad team, finishing in the mid-to-upper teens on offense and defense and having a positive turnover differential. They had one of my favorite offseasons with my overall favorite draft class, a great trade for OT Eric Fisher, and in free agency continued to beef up the OL depth with signing OT Kwame Harris as well as other key areas. The OL depth had looked a little shabby, but it is robust now. All of their young starters are trending in a positive direction too. Last season was really just poor luck, and I feel confident in saying that they will put it in the rearview mirror once this one is concluded.

The Pats were a surprise 10-6 team last season and nearly took the division. They were great at rushing the ball and their defense finished around 10th in the league, so that isn't a surprise, but the underlying stats did not paint a pretty picture as they were overall the worst offense to make the playoffs and had red flags in other areas like turnover differential and defensive playmaking (sacks and FFs). For this season, I'm already seeing one red flag: OL. They used to have quite the impressive depth at OL and routinely finished in the Top 5 in sacks allowed and blocks:sacks ratio. Now the problem isn't their starters but the complete lack of depth behind them. I am a big proponent of assembling a collection OL because they tend to be hit the hardest with injuries, and when I see this team's OL behind the starters (one will already be out for at least the first four games), I see it holding the team back. The decision to trade for QB Cam Newton while signing WR Larry Fitzgerald to their #1 and SS Justin Bethel to be special teams ace and potentially Keon Jackson's successor could all make immediate dividends (it will have to for Larry), I think it will be hard to replicate last season's 10-6 given I think the Jets will bounce back, they overachieved last season, and the poor OL depth this season.

I noticed someone implied the Bills had the worst preseason for any user team, but while it is never good to lose three players for the season, you can hardly say they lost a lot. QB Matt Flynn was a backup who hadn't thrown a pass since S5. LT Garett Bolles was a rookie, so we have absolutely no idea how good of a player he is or will be. RG Phil Loadholt had 4 blocks against 3 sacks last season. While they are obviously not a realistic playoff contender this season, I think they have a chance of getting to .500. For one they have a relatively easier schedule having finished third in the division last season and the NFC South being the non-conference opponent. They also brought in multiple OL in free agency that should be far superior to the steaming pile of garbage that was their OL last season. HB Todd Gurley will finally make his debut. While he could easily struggle, there's at least hope that he will be the team's best HB since Courtney Lewis was shown the door and Clinton Portis retired. Probably the biggest and best change is that the defense finally has a direction now. After purposely playing people out of position and not putting their best players forward, the LB corps looks legit and that secondary could go back to being above average with Lewis Baker playing his natural SS again. Unfortunately, they play in what is usually one of the tougher divisions, Derek Carr is still their starting QB, and overall, and they have a talent deficiency issue that makes it hard for me to pick them to get out of the cellar. Still, after finishing 30th on offense and 27th on defense last season, I would expect improvements from both, especially on defense.
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