LogFAQs > #937485081

AFC North

1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Mexico City Browns

The Ravens didn't really do much. They saw their long-time SS Michael Boulware retire and DT Babatunde left in free agency to join the Raiders, but they eschewed free agency except for depth pieces, and the only notable draft picks were DE Stephon Tuitt and SS Damontae Kazee. Having finished in the top half of the league on defense every season except one, it's the offense that needs to make strides if they wish to become SB contenders again. It will likely be all up to QB Ben Roethlisberger who has been a disappointment since his trade from the 49ers. Both teams probably wished they could take that trade back. After blowing the chance for a first round bye last season, the Ravens will have to take advantage of their quirky schedule and injury-free offseason to get there. Their first three games are on the road, including the first two against playoff teams from a season ago (Raiders and Jags). Then they play eight home games in an eight week stretch. These include pushovers, playoff hopefuls, and top franchises like the Vikings and Dolphins. If they can go 7-1 (I would expect 5-3 at the worst given their current injury status) during this stretch, they are a virtual playoff lock and their final five games (all on the road) include just one playoff team from a season ago (Packers). By playing the NFC North as their non-conference opponent, there is a path here to the #1 seed even.

While the Steelers are rarely outstanding, they tend to be at least adequate in all major areas, so they are a safe pick to finish second. Defense is clearly this team's strength, and they are running back virtually the same starting squad as last time (CB Bashaud Breeland won a starting gig, but he's out for several weeks to begin the season). I expect them to finish in the low teens at worst. The offense though is a concern. When healthy, HB Jamario Thomas is one of the best HBs in the game, but he has missed double digit games in three of the past four seasons. They have a high-end backup in HB Le'Veon Bell, but he's no Jamario. Even among scrambling QBs, Reggie McNeal isn't the most gifted passer, but you have to wonder if a poor WR/TE group and coaching strategy is holding him and the offense back. The biggest concern for me is that the OL has lost depth and star power, which will make it tough for a run-first team to reach the same level of production and efficiency they are used to seeing. They could compete for the division given their high floor, but their lower ceiling could also have them compete for the cellar. I sort of wanted to pick them to finish third, but I will play it safe and have them finish second.

I had at one point considered taking the Bengals to claim the division. While I wasn't completely enamored with their draft, I loved their first two picks in OLB Matthew Judon and WR Kenny Stills. They were also active in free agency grabbing multiple starters in their secondary in SS Chris Browning and CB Darrelle Revis. I think they can make great strides on both sides of the ball. They owned the #1 D for a multi-week stretch last season before the wheels came off, and QB Jake Locker had a strong end to the season. I am worried about this OL though and HB Eric Haw. Calling the OL underwhelming is an understatement. This aging group just hasn't been great for awhile. OTs Khalif Barnes and Lyndon Murtha own career block:sack ratios under 7, LG Eric Steinbach is coming off a season where he had 29 blocks against 16 sacks, C Travis Frederick has had two seasons where he played a combined 5 games due to injuries, but RG might be a bright spot as third-year player Mark Glowinski won the starting gig and has 30 blocks against 0 sacks in his career. Haw has three 1400+ yard seasons (all with 4.3 YPC), but those are his only good seasons. He has been very underwhelming in his other healthy years (six seasons of less than 4.0 YPC and none with 1000+ rushing yards) In two of the past three seasons, he has missed significant time (15 games S12 and 9 S10). Free agent HB Knowshon Moreno had arguably his best season last year under this OL (1150 rushing yards on 4.5 YPC and 270 rec yards on 10.0 YPC), so maybe the Bengals picked the wrong HB to retain. Anyway, I like the potential of this team, but with how much the running game matters and my belief that OL is the most important unit on offense, the Bengals lagging in those areas will probably prevent them from taking the division but could be a wild card contender.

I really, really wished that the Browns took advantage of a free agent class that perfectly fit many areas in needing of improvement. They could have grabbed SS Browning or Polite (latter wasn't signed until R2 of free agency) and MLB McDonald (former: see Polite) or Worrilow and still have a couple million left over. The team has naturally picked in the Top 10 for five straight seasons having won 5 or 6 games in each season. Being worried about contracts coming up next season should not be an issue for a team in desperate need for improvement. If you are a struggling franchise and see an opportunity to make significant immediate and long-term improvements to your team, you take it without question. Now all hope for this season isn't lost. A lot of these top picks using those Top 10 selections or picks received from those selections (HB Mark Ingram, RG Kevin Zeitler, WR DeAndre Hopkins) have developed and improved upon their production each year in the league. If #6 pick QB Dak Prescott proves to be a good fit in his rookie season, we could be looking at an offense that flits with being a Top 10 unit. I am very concerned about this defense though, and with FS Lovon Ponder potentially retiring after the season, I am also very concerned about its future. The defense is basically Ponder, OLBs Aaron Curry and Kwon Alexander, and DE Pierre Woods. Four players can't mask the deficiencies of seven others, and while the AFC North isn't known for their potent offenses, they will probably post some of their best outings of the season against this squad. Maybe the offense can carry this team to an overachieving level, but with defense being more tied to success than offense, it is more likely that a team that Madden dubbed as tied for the least talented in the league will once again be picking in the Top 10 come next season.
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