LogFAQs > #937492466

AFC South

1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Columbus Pioneers
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Tennessee Titans

Now this division is a toughie. There are compelling cases you can make for each of the top three teams. I actually am most concerned with the Colts, but I am stilling picking them because the surest thing in this division (in a positive way) is their defense, which has been among the league's best the past two seasons. I feel like that should carry them far. I feel the least confident about them making noise in the playoffs, but with their uncommon games against teams I am expecting some regression from in the Patriots and Hawks, I think they can get enough wins to take the division. I have major concerns about the offense though. I assume ageism was at play, but I found the signings of QB Colin Kaepernick and G Jonathan Martin perplexing, and that could derail what is an otherwise playoff caliber team. Charlie Whitehurst is without question the best QB on the team, but when he was injured last season, I tried the scrambling QB approach last season. It was a disaster, so to then hand the keys to another scrambling QB who had shown very little in Toronto and Carolina was odd. Jonathan Martin is just an outright bad G. His 23 blocks against 5 sacks last season brought his career line to 70 blocks against 22 sacks allowed. The key to this season on offense though is Steven Jackson's successor at HB in Duke Johnson. Rookie HBs tend to have efficiency issues, so for this season, we may have more of the same of what Jackson brought to the table, but if he can offer something above of what the Colts have typically seen, perhaps the offense can be just dynamic enough to separate themselves from the AFC South crowd. I know this isn't a ringing endorsement, and I will admit that I have extremely low confidence in this pick, but I just really like that defense a lot.

The Pioneers are the most complete team in the division, though the talent lags behind both the Colts and Jags. They are also a prime candidate to regress to the mean on offense after what is usually a unit that finishes in the Top 10 or so finished in the mid-20s thanks to high turnovers and poor injury luck. Under new management, they had a mini-makeover on that side of the ball with new starters at HB (Markus Manson), WR (Stefon Diggs, with Eric Decker as the slot receiver), and RG Wes Schweitzer. They also added a ton of depth on the line and added some pieces in the draft on all three levels (all this at the expense of their top picks next season). The Pioneers positioned themselves to seize this division if the majority of the adjustments they made pan out. The defense should keep them very competitive though with the division's best secondary and a rising LB corps. The DL is no slouch either, but they aren't the focal point of this defense. I see the floor of this team being 7-9 while something in the 10-11 win range isn't unrealistic and should be good enough for a playoff spot.

The Jags have the most star power in this division, and we've seen teams in recent seasons like the Bucs coast on their star power alone. The Jags are a better team than those recent Bucs squads, but even after making the AFC Championship last season, I have a feeling this will be a year the Jags slip. For starters, their OTs are gone for extended time, including one for the entire season, and because of cap issues, they've had to cut back on depth there. HB Adrian Peterson is still playing at a high level, but the offense really goes through him as QB Tim Tebow is looking more and more like a flash in the pan, and despite the level of talent, they haven't had a 1000 yard receiver since S7. On defense, the DL is amazing, but the rest of the team has question marks. MLB Rey Maualuga turned in arguably his best season in S12, but his OLBs are a recent 1st round pick and a former 5th rounder. ROLB Aaron Lynch had a very disappointing season statistically as the #6 overall pick and while LOLB Corey Morrison had a promising 2 FFs and 1 FR as a reserve last season, who knows how that will translate to a starting job. The secondary keeps having turnover because management has decided they want to keep switching safeties each year. This will be the third straight season that a different pair of safeties will be starting for them. Last year, rookies FS Tre Boston and SS Ibraheim Campbell helped make the Jags pass D finish in the Top 5, and they developed nicely for their help. Campbell wasn't retained as a free agent while Boston was traded. It's hard to develop a defense in particular when there's no continuity, and there's a chance that quickly abandoning those players could ultimately be the difference between being in the playoffs and watching them from the couch.

The Titans are finishing last. I don't think anyone would disagree with that. The situation isn't as dire as it is like the Chiefs in the AFC West. I am genuinely intrigued by this team though. Paxton Lynch was a blah QB, but the Titans can go to the free agent well and get a superior option with the savings. The highest are off the table, but there are several options that could be of use for this team as it tries to right its offense. The best offensive ranking the team has ever had was actually with Bobby Reid at the helm, so if the Titans want to admit their mistake in releasing him, he's available. Other options include Jake Christensen, Brock Osweiler, Ryan Lindley. I am droning on about QBs because I think it is imperative to get #2 overall pick WR Mike Evans going. The hit rate of Top 10 WRs in the past five or seasons has been great (very small sample size though), but a team like the Titans shouldn't take it for granted. The right QB could help put this offense on the right path because there's really nowhere else to look forward to on offense. The defense is weird. They should be better than what they've given over the years. They do have MLBs Brian Cushing and David Harris, but the rest of the team is either older players treading water at this point or younger players who have hit a wall. They've added more resources at OLB and while Tom Burton is unquestionably no Shawne Merriman, maybe this LB corps can get them back to respectability. If both the QB/WR connection and defense become adequate, the Titans could possibly pick outside of the Top 10 for a change, but a more realistic, optimistic outlook is a pick in the back half of the Top 10.
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