LogFAQs > #939635115

Bust Analysis continued:

Still, there WAS a school of thought that theorized that in an eightpack full of Western games, KHIII might be able to ride its name recognition and JRPG-ness to wins against Portal and RDR II. While I did not attend this school, I did concede that it wasnt impossible for something like that to occur.

But even in loss, Kingdom Hearts III was expected to at least have a pulse. It had a bye into Round 2 thanks to being seeded against another 2019 game, Disco Elysium. A game that by all accounts is probably too smart for the average GameFAQer, who thinks FFX was the apex of writing in the medium (oh shit). Even in a contest where two WRPGs placed in the top 5, and even though this game is MASSIVELY critically acclaimed, DE is too much of an old-school CRPG to have been worth much, the lack of console ports crippling it even further. Which made the fact that KHIII couldnt break 70 on whats essentially its home turf all the more embarrassing.

Anyone still thinking KHIII had a shot at Portal pretty much gave up at this point, but a lot of people were still unprepared for how terribly it would job out in Round 2. Personally, I remember making a post claiming that Portal could very well beat KHIII harder than it beat Tomb Raider. While it wasnt exactly that bad, it was pretty damn close, with Portal putting 62% on the once venerable Kingdom Hearts franchise. It wasnt even somewhat competitive, just a thrashing from the word go. I remember a lot of people that took KHIII to Division Finals GLADLY conceding these points. Its funny to think that in a different timeline, it could EASILY have been a top 5 game in this bracket. Easily. Guess this is what happens when you mismanage expectations and create a tangled mess of a plot that is impossible to satisfactorily wrap up.

Still, despite underperforming, KHIII got as far as most of us figured it would. The other Bust was far, far more disappointing despite being quite a bit stronger. Ive alluded to Fire Emblems horrible contest multiple times throughout this analysis, and FINALLY we get to why expectations were so high for it. Look, personally, I looooooooove Three Houses. In my mind I slot it alongside Mario, Zelda, and Smash as a must-own for the Switch. While the main plot is unevenly paced and the characters do draw heavily on typical anime tropes, there's quite a bit of meat on their bones. For a Nintendo joint, its actually INSANE how much decently-written dialogue there is, ALL of it voiced. Its the only time in recent memory where I started a second playthrough of a game immediately after beating it; I NEEDED to see another route.

But personal feelings aside, there was plenty of reason for Three Houses, and Awakening by extension, to do VERY well. 3H finally brought this series massive success on a home console, and has remained relevant through regular DLC. Its a game that has high engagement all across the Internet, tapping into the all important weeb market that generates fanart and fan theories and all that shit by the truckload. It won the Audience Choice Award at the Game Awards, which for our purposes matters a lot more than the actual GotY award. All the pieces were lined up for Fire Emblem to surge this contest, and for 3H to act as a rising tide for Awakening in the process, just as P5 boosted P4G. Taking 3H to Division Finals was an easy pick for a lot of people, and taking it to Quarterfinals was pretty common.

But it didnt happen. Not at all. Before we even saw 3H in action, we watched Awakening fail to impress against Deus Ex. Already alarm bells were being set off for those of us that bought into the hype, but hey, maybe Awakening didnt end up being affected. 3H itself should do fine, right?

Well, while there were arguments over what constituted fine, it was failing the eye test pretty hard. Its first opponent was South Park, which doesnt have much reason to be strong other than brand recognition (which did a fat lotta good for DBZ). A little over a doubling sounded ok-ish, but it wasnt the drubbing we wanted to see from the latest and greatest Fire Emblem game.

The next Round brought on Ori and the Blind Forest, fresh from a strong upset. But again, Fire Emblem wasnt putting in the ass-kicking required for it to remain the favorite for reaching Division Finals. 62% looked all the worse when GTAV broke 60 on Cuphead just the day before, and we all expected Cuphead to be appreciably strong than Ori (and it was).

I was getting very antsy at this point. I was one of the biggest 3H shills on the board in the days leading up to the contest, and here it was embarrassing me. Maybe, I thought, just maybe, Xenoblade was a fraud and putting big numbers on multiplayer shooters wasnt really THAT impressive.

Lol no. The Fire Emblem vs Xenoblade match had to be the single most bracket voted match of the contest, as B8ers who expected the world of Fire Emblem were desperately trying to push it over Xenoblade; this, on top of FE having a good board vote. It was 50-50 at the freeze. First update? 55-45 for Xenoblade. It was one of, if not THE, biggest freeze -> first update jumps wed seen all contest, at least in a match that mattered. That update single-handedly annihilated a LOT of expert brackets. The cookie had 3H getting to Quarters, for fucks sake! 55-45 is already terrible when the massive favorite was on the losing side, but Xenoblade kept climbing. And climbing. This ended up being a 60-40 match. As outlined in my 2017 write-up, 60-40 is officially the point where the match was never actually debatable, and one side was just wrong. Nintendo SFF mitigates the sting a bit, but almost all of us expected Fire Emblem to be the one exerting that SFF. And why the hell wouldnt we? Fire Emblem is the bigger name. It has more games. Its sold better. It SHOULD be higher up on the pecking order than a game that came out in the twilight years of the Wii as a Gamestop exclusive, and then on a 3DS revision no one owned.

I mean, come on, Fire Emblem even has WAY MORE characters in Smash!

oh.

Yes, when the match was over and we were all left sifting through the debris, trying to figure out what the fuck had just happened, the leading explanation that came about was that Fire Emblem was getting antivoted HARD by Smash fans, still salty at Byleth getting included over Dante and KOS-MOS and all the other characters people were actually expecting. Another Fire Emblem character?! goes a billion posts on the Smash board, in YouTube reaction videos, and all over Twitter.

Do I buy this theory? Honestly, yes. Yes I do. Being a part of the Smash community, I 100% believe theyd be petty enough to vote against Fire Emblem because Byleth took a spot away from whatever obscure F-list character they wanted on the roster. Even at locals Id overhear people talking about how disappointed they were with the choice, though I did have a great set with one of the best Byleth players in Michigan.

And whats the alternative theory? The Switch had done a lot of good for Nintendo this contest, and Three Houses being a recent, high-profile, well-loved release should have made it a real contender. Smash anti-votes are as good an explanation as any for why it seems that the series hasnt budged an inch. It could just be that Fire Emblem has a definitive ceiling on this site, in which case nothing is gonna give it the boost we thought it was going to get. Either way, I made a thread during its last match claiming that the series was THE Turd of the Contest, and now that its all over I can say that nothing has changed my mind about that. They didnt just lose debatable matches, they got punkd in them, and even in victory they looked underwhelming as shit.

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