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| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 06/24/20 6:21:47 PM #4: | It looks like Eliot Engel lost. Also, a 24-year-old won a Republican primary in North Carolina against a Trump-endorsed candidate. This election feels rather strange to me - based on a lot of my metrics, Trump should have a fairly easy win, but his poll numbers against Biden are bad and have been bad for months now. Trump lost to Hillary in the popular vote by a little under 3%, and based on the state by state numbers in 2016, he could have lost by nearly 4% and kept his EC win. So we should probably be reading Biden +4 (maybe +5 if the country has gotten more polarized) as the breakeven point. But Biden is at +9 right now, which is a crushing win for him. I do believe that there are a lot of conservatives who are going to hem and haw right now about how they don't like Trump and his antics but come election day are going to decide that he's still better than a Democrat. That would show up in the polls, but only very late in the season. +9 though is hard to discount. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard! |
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