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Topic~*Ultimaterializer's Post-Contest Retro Summer 2008 Analysis!*~
PostContestUlti
12/05/20 12:47:46 AM
#41:


Division 4 Round 1: Alucard, Captain Falcon, Diddy Kong, and Kratos Aurion

Alucard - 43108 [35.54%]
Captain Falcon - 34435 [28.39%]
Diddy Kong - 22950 [18.92%]
Kratos Aurion - 20787 [17.14%]
Total Votes - 121280

After a long run of predictable necessities, we were given our second surprise match in a row. This didn't have the aura of an L-Block match, but it was a surprise nonetheless.

Alucard, Falcon, and Kratos were all known commodities coming in, and because people were wise to LFF this year, Alucard was the clear and obvious favorite to finish in first place. Falcon and Diddy were guaranteed to steal each other's votes and prop Alucard up; we all knew that already. What we <i>didn't</i> know was who would finish in second place. Captain Falcon had been in two contests, and in both he got utterly embarrassed. Losing to Crono in a blowout will happen, but that 2007 result is so bad. In an all-Nintendo poll, this dude finished in third place behind Wario: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2872-division-3-round-1-banjo-falcon-fox-wario

Wario! Who actually likes Wario unironically?

So there was that with Falcon. It was very hard to make an honest case for him to win second place here, because just one year ago we saw him lose in a similar spot. Kratos had made one contest prior to this one, and this was the result: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2866-division-1-round-1-agent-47-kratos-a-midna-scorpion

Doesn't exactly fill you with determination to pick him, does it? That, and Fails of gets nominated for every contest and pisses down its leg in <i>every</i> contest. A ton of people thought Falcon and Diddy were collectively weak enough to not finish in second place while stealing enough votes from each other to allow Kratos to squirt by into second place.

Yes, people in 2008 had faith in Fails of finishing ahead of Nintendo. This is a real thing. It actually happened.

The overall consensus ended up being Alucard > Diddy Kong, but it was not a confident backing of Diddy at all. It's almost like he was the choice by default. If you check the guru, oracle, and overall prediction percentage of the time, there was not a lot of faith in the little guy winning second place here, but the logic in him being the favorite was sound. Fails of had never proven to be anything but garbage. Captain Falcon had never proven to be anything but garbage. Diddy Kong had BrawlFEAR, The Hierarchy, and the given fact of Donkey Kong Country being more popular than F-Zero all on his side. Captain Falcon had been in Smash since 1999 and never amounted to much in contests, but Diddy making a hyped Brawl debut had to be worth a lot.... right?

When this match started, this was Captain Falcon:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDj40PJqcCs

When this poll started, Captain Falcon didn't just come out and legitimately end Diddy Kong's whole career -- Diddy got his ass kicked in this poll and hasn't made a contest since -- he was winning the entire poll outright. To this day a lot of people are confused how this happened, but the answer is simple. Rally spillover. Weird things happen after L-Block/Draven/Undertale/etc type matches. This was no exception, as both sides of the L-Block crowd backed Falcon with the board vote. This gave him a lead over Alucard for 15 minutes before things settled down to a simple Alucard > Falcon finish, and it stands to reason Falcon might have won this poll if it was a 1v1 match.

For those playing the home game, the thought of Alucard losing to Captain Falcon 1v1 in 2008, or frankly in any other contest after 2002, was preposterous. But it was very likely would have happened if this was a 1v1 contest and this match happened directly after a Ryu/L-Block 1v1 match. Can you see why I hate this format yet? It robs us of so much.

By the way, as one of the people who called this match, my logic was simple. Donkey Kong is a historic choke artist. Why would the less popular Diddy be any different, especially in the face of a character that Smash fans think of in much higher esteem? I know Smash fans really well; they <i>hated</i> Diddy Kong right from the jump and always had a healthy respect for Captain Falcon, plus Falcon has the cool factor. You can't say I didn't warn you, because I legitimately saw this coming. Us Smash fans are really, really picky like that.

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