LogFAQs > #962764639

masterplum posted...

Have you been following redistricting? Dems could actually gain seats from gerrymandering

I've been following it more closely than you have, because redistricting isn't going the Dems' way currently. Pickups in NY, NJ, and IL (some of these may be litigated) are being offset by losses elsewhere; the 538 tracker says that Dems have gained seats but that's super misleading due to the precise nature of where those gains are because there are a lot of tossup or light red districts being shored up R that are going to push Ds out after making some gains in 2020. If the NY/NJ/IL maps hold up then I think ultimately it's going to be a wash for the two parties - which means the more important factor will take over, which is that it's a midterm with the democrats in control where dem voters aren't motivated and gop voters are pissed about CRT or whatever. R+30-R+40 isn't really a sky-is-falling prediction here, it's the realistic expectation based on history.