LogFAQs > #964927509

The_Viscount posted...

Otherwise, I feel like the impact on elections is probably overstated. The loudest voices are going to vote the way they've always voted. Then the areas most for it or against it are still likely to vote the same way -- it's not like states that kept passing restrictive abortion bills are suddenly going to do a complete about-face when they could've done it all along.

Most of the impact is going to take the form of voter turnout, rather than how people vote. You'll get a relatively small handful of people that do change their vote based on the issue (either way, really, since some anti-abortion folks that would normally vote blue may see the Feds' efforts to codify Roe v. Wade into law as an overreach and change their vote to prevent that), but you're correct that that won't make a huge difference because most people already factor abortion rights into their voting decisions as much as they ever will. Far more significantly than that, though, this development has raised the stakes of the election quite dramatically in many people's eyes, so you're going to get quite a few people who otherwise wouldn't have bothered voting making a point of doing so. That's going to favour the left more than the right, given that the pro-abortion rights viewpoint is more popular by a considerable margin, but the exact impact remains to be seen.

The_Viscount posted...

While the left is going to try to press it to their advantage, there's a strong chance the revocation won't go through anyway given the backlash so far. And, honestly, it's never seemed that likely.

It might, it might not, but the effects it's going to have on midterms and the 2024 election are going to happen anyway. Regardless of whether or not it goes through, the Supreme Court has tipped its hand and shown that they are willing and able to overturn the abortion rights so many people have been taking for granted. Codifying it into law (or preventing that) has therefore become a pressing election issue, and that urgency is going to affect how and how many people vote.

SKARDAVNELNATE posted...

I don't think this is that serious of an issue.

It's literally a matter of life and death, with even further consequences for health, financial stability, and psychological well-being, as well as broader questions of gender equality, personal liberty, and public health. If you don't think it's a serious issue, it's because you haven't considered the issue beyond its immediate effect on you, and that's generally not a very sensible way to approach social issues.

Revelation34 posted...

Yeah that's definitely going to happen.

It's a non-zero risk. If the precedent is overturned, it's going to be a very long time before it's re-established, especially given that the court that overturned it is very unlikely to reverse that decision. The current oldest SC Justice is 83 (and is a Clinton nominee), the next only 73 (Bush), with everyone else in their 60's or younger, so it could very well be 30+ years before the court sees enough turnover to start changing their minds.