Current Events > Does Trump win without COVID in the picture?

(+) Yeah! (+)

I know the general consensus has been that he would easily cruise to reelection had COVID not been a thing, but I'm gonna disagree with that.

His favorability/approval was worse before COVID, Biden was still leading him in every poll, and Democrats weren't signing up new voters/canvassing/rallying because of COVID

The whole dynamic of the race changes for both sides if the pandemic isn't a thing.

I still think Trump would've fallen short.

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Hard to say.

In some ways I think Covid boosted his votes. A lot of exit polling revealed voters were more concerned about the economy than they were the pandemic.

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I'm not sure how much the numbers would have changed without all the mail-in ballots. I obviously don't buy Trump's bullshit fraud narrative, but I think fewer Democrats would have voted if they had to vote in person.

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Will_VIIII posted...

Hard to say.

In some ways I think Covid boosted his votes. A lot of exit polling revealed voters were more concerned about the economy than they were the pandemic.

There's also some thinking emerging rn that suggests Democrats support for COVID restrictions and lockdowns may have hurt them with Hispanic/Latino voters.

If that's also the case then it shifts things around a bit.

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jpenny2 posted...

I'm not sure how much the numbers would have changed without all the mail-in ballots. I obviously don't buy Trump's bullshit fraud narrative, but I think fewer Democrats would have voted if they had to vote in person.

The only other elections we have for a reference are 2018 and the primaries early this year, but Democrats had no issues showing up in person for those.

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Easily. Trump didn't inherit a trash economy like Obama, and didn't have to deal with a 9/11. His 1st 3 years were exceptionally smooth, economy was good, and that's all Americans care about.

Once COVID hit, he came under the microscope for the first time in his presidency, and he botched it left and right, that's when people started paying attention to how much of a shitty leader he really is.

Lot of things to consider. Some Dem operatives think that the lack of door knocking/canvassing due to COVID hurt them, since the GOP continued to chug along doing it in those places.

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He lost, get over it.

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I think the turnout would be lower but Biden would still win

Covid gave Trump a solid excuse for all his failures. "Sure everything sucks but it's not my fault, it's this China virus" allowed him to handwave his 3 years of fuck ups

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Republicans will tell you he wins easily, but I still think people were tired of his shit.

Yazarogi posted...

He lost, get over it.

OP is definitely not a Trump supporter.

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probably. we've seen, time and again, that democrat voters are fairly shit at putting full support behind a candidate; only reason it happened this time is because trump has spent the last year literally killing americans...

Doom_Art posted...

His favorability/approval was worse before COVID, Biden was still leading him in every poll, and Democrats weren't signing up new voters/canvassing/rallying because of COVID

no. this election cycle pretty much proved that the polling is broken for a candidate like trump or the republican party in general now.

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Yes, because of mail in ballots and not in the way you think I think

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