Current Events > Weekly Election Forecast Discussion 4.7 - Biden reclaims PA

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls

Race to the White House was a pretty good polling aggregate, even better than 538 in 2022. I like it's easy-to-read summaries.

If you haven't kept up with forecasting tools (not just race to the WH, but also 538, realclearpolitics, other betting sites), Trump has had a pretty strong lead since late last year over Biden, but Biden has been making up strong ground as of late. He has regained the national vote lead and has also flipped PA back from Republican to democrat, cutting significantly into Trump's EC lead. Wisconsin also is within earshot of flipping, which would even the race nearly again.

Meanwhile, Trump has secured the Republican nomination which will allow him to focus on his national campaign, but the pending litigation against him, both criminal and civil, is going to hinder his ability to hold as many rallies as he may have wanted to. Not to mention, as nominee, Biden can now fully redirect his campaign solely against Trump.

I think early May, Biden will have the EC lead again with the rust belt fully converting at the moment.

Polls ain't shit.