vcharon posted... It's just rather annoying to have people whose favorites (Belle and Stitch) ALWAYS do well here complain about their impending doom because of a character that never even made the top 10 once.
I've been supporting Belle as either #1 or #2 every contest. That is why she's done so well. Scar has not always had the same support he's had now. That is why he hasn't consistently done as well. All it takes to get a character far in this contest is dedication - something I've done yearly with Belle. For whatever reason, whether it be someone supporting Captain Jack Sparrow or Frollo as their #1 instead of Scar, he has never had the same support until this year. Once it gets down to the end, dedication starts to matter less, and it becomes about who the casuals like more. And this is Scar's year.
Past performances means little here. You have to look at the users participating now. There can be a "casual" factor in the finals, but it's usually negligible. As someone who hasn't been totally invested in any of the remaining characters, I feel pretty confident about my prediction. In fact, I think Belle's closer to Stitch in my inequality than she is to Scar.
No one expects Hook in the final and I think that would put him over the edge if he made it. I don't see any of the other three taking Hookers down if he makes it.
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"THIS is how you make Nintendo win another generation. Good job, Sony and Microsoft, you're idiots." - Vlado
BrettEagles posted... As someone who hasn't been totally invested in any of the remaining characters, I feel pretty confident about my prediction..
It could happen. I don't have any trouble foreseeing this scenario:
15 saves needed.
[14] Belle - [13] Captain Hook - [13] Stitch -
Scar just got saved! Scar supporters choose to save Hook or Stitch in an effort to eliminate the closest competition. Belle is eliminated. Belle's supporter shift to Stitch and backhand Hook into the finals next round to spite Scar.
Trading for the majority of the game is the most important part in getting your character far. Once it gets to here, you can't trade as much and have to rely on other people to save your character for free.
Scar could have easily made Top 10 every contest if he had someone maining him. Past performance means absolutely nothing in a trading contest.
I could pick some less popular character and take him/her to the Top 30 at least just by solely maining them. Hell, I helped Khan get to top 5 last year when before he's had completely horrible results.
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The Master of Chaos - http://s15.postimage.org/lzzps5w1n/addendum.png Enjoy the silence.
Pokewars posted... From: vcharon | #207 I hope you aren't trying to tell me Belle is some cult character that has no casual strength at all. Not at all. Just less than Scar.
For all this talk of Scar being a huge casual draw, the only casuals I see that vote for him occasionally are blindhobo, Inviso, and... I can't really think of any more atm. Most of his strength comes from regulars who switched priorities once their other favorites perished.
GenesisSaga posted... Raka, Dra90n, My Immortal, and Yoblazer don't count apparently.
Yep, Belle gets no casuals at all.
Notice how none of them were here today. Not to mention Dra9on votes Scar more often than Belle, Raka hardy ever shows up, My Immortal has voted for her twice, and Yoblazer has showed up once. That was a terrible argument.
I guess by "casual" I mean more than just people who pop in every now and again. Like you just said, Scar becomes more people's focus once their favourites go out.
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The Master of Chaos - http://s15.postimage.org/lzzps5w1n/addendum.png Enjoy the silence.
Dra90n actually prefers Belle from what I see. And the entire idea behind "a casual" is that they don't always show up. That's why they're called "casuals" and not "regulars". Talk about terrible arguments...
GenesisSaga posted... Dra90n actually prefers Belle from what I see. And the entire idea behind "a casual" is that they don't always show up. That's why they're called "casuals" and not "regulars". Talk about terrible arguments...
I suppose my definition of casual differs from yours then. What I'm talking about more closely fits Poke's definition: those who have since had their favorites eliminated and are jumping on the Scar bandwagon. Scar absolutely has more of those than Belle does. Sorry for not being more clear.
Pokewars posted... I guess by "casual" I mean more than just people who pop in every now and again. Like you just said, Scar becomes more people's focus once their favourites go out.
Now that seems to be true. Scar does seem to be getting the bulk of regulars who's other support has fallen, but this myth about Scar being some unstoppable casual magnet is just that- a myth.
Oh, and I forgot Maniac. I guess he can count as a Scar casual. So Maniac, Inviso, and possibly blindhobo.