Board 8 > Best Year in Gaming Contest Analysis Crew

(+) Yeah! (+)

Kleenex’s Analysis

Every time I see the Dark Souls 3 box art, I think it's an armor-clad dude stoically standing there giving the thumbs up. I'm always disappointed to find out that's not the case.

Anyway, the vast majority of 1992's strength is on the back of Link to the Past, but that's certainly enough to win round 1. Mario Kart is decent backup, and 2016 probably ain't all that hot - although to be fair, every game from 2016 is untested. It's possible that FF15 and Sun/Moon are actually powerhouses, and not just two games from well known franchises that happened to skate through the GotY polls. It's also possible that Half-Life 3 gets announced tomorrow.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1992 with 69%



Guest’s Analysis - Bane

So this is a match that pre-contest starting I thought could be interesting. 2016 games are a new entity since the last contest was in 2015, and leading the 2016 pack is the massive wave known as Overwatch. I struggled on picking this one, because while the obvious answer is 1992 I thought 2016 might get a boost from Overwatch hype. Also has a Pokemon game that was received by the fanbase loads better than X and Y, plus the force known as Final Fantasy XV that turned out to NOT be a total disappointment after 10 years of hype. Decent year, right? 1992 (best year ever holla at '92 babies) of course does have a Legend of Zelda game. And not only that, but probably the most beloved 2D Zelda game and one of the highest regarded in the series: A Link to the Past. This game kicked some ass last contest, beating out Majora's Mask and holding Ocarina of Time to under 60%! So that alone gives 1992 a decent advantage. Sonic 2 is also favorably regarded by fans of the Sonic series, didn't really show its strength in 2015 but it did get to round 3 regardless. Other games include Super Mario Kart, Wolfenstein 3D, Mortal Kombat, and Kirby's Dream Land which I don't think have much in the way of contest history but feel like are regarded well. But yet I still thought "Hey, I need some risky picks. Let's take a bet on 2016 and some Overwatch shenanigans!"



Yea fuck that logic of thinking fuck my bracket RIP


1992 wins with 73.83%



Crew Consensus: 1992 beats last year
---

Master Moltar posted...

2016 is really relying on a rally of some sort. Its best game basically lost to a Pokemon game released after 2000.

hey now FFXV won the 1-on-1 poll
---

hence basically!
---

looks like '95 will end up with the blowout of the contest

'98 flop
---

How did people think 94 had a bad performance? 2004 is easily the strongest year post 2001....
---

Hey I might have screwed my bracket but at least I might be getting the analysis point for 1992 v 2016
---

Round 1 – 2013 vs. 2003

Moltar’s Analysis

I don’t know why, but 2011 vs 2006 makes me hesitate slightly here. 2003 should have this in the bag since 2013 doesn’t have a Skyrim like beast or huge pic advantage going for it. 2003 isn’t all that strong though, mainly just KotOR and Wind Waker there. That’s really all it needs to beat 2013 though.

Not expecting a blowout, but 2003 should take this by a comfortable margin. I feel like The Last of Us has enough casual clout here to make 2013 look semi-respectable.

Moltar’s Bracket: 2003

Moltar’s Prediction: 2003 - 64%



transience’s Analysis

I'm short on time today so I'll be brief. 03 isn't a very good year. It's like the 1993 of the PS2 era. It does have a Zelda, though, and I guess KOTOR means something. The others feel kinda like filler. FFX-2 is technically notable but I don't think there's a lot of good will with that game anymore.

13's got decent games - Last of Us is solid and is a damn notable game of the ever contender - but there's a real lack of powerhouse games. 03 might struggle next round but it's hard to see 2013 doing too much.

transience's prediction: 2003 with 71.15%



Leonhart’s Analysis

The end of round 1 and the halfway point of this contest is already upon us, and I’m totally okay with it! Maybe we’ll start having more competitive matches, and if not, at least it’ll be over before too much longer! Anyway, in terms of this match, 2003 is a weird one. It’s got a Zelda, a Pokemon, and a Final Fantasy game in its corner. You would normally think that would make you a top tier year, but when it’s Wind Waker (which is mostly liked these days but still has its detractors), R/S/E (which might be the least popular mainline game), and Final Fantasy X-2 (which is a pretty divisive entry), who knows!

I do think the brand name value of those three is probably enough to defeat 2013, which is basically The Last of Us and a bunch of other middling stuff. Link Between Worlds is getting no representation at all, either in the match pic or in the notable games list. We saw KH2 being omitted from 2006 possibly cost it the match, and I think 2013 was already weaker than 2003 even had it been included. The Last of Us is a “Game of the generation” type of game, but we’ve already seen that one solid anchor isn’t enough to carry a year unless you’re Chrono Trigger.

Leonhart’s Vote: 2003

Leonhart’s Prediction: 2003 with 63.75%
---

Kleenex’s Analysis

2003 doesn't impress me very much. It has Wind Waker, but that's really all it has. I don't have very much repect for KotOR and beyond that the pickings are slim. I think 2013 is probably better than people (myself included) initially gave it credit for. Fire Emblem is pretty well-liked, as if The Last of Us. The supporing games - Bioshock, Pokemon, GTA - aren't that strong here, but they're pretty big-name series. I don't think any of these games can stand up to Wind Waker, though, so that should be enough to give 2003 a win.

Kleenex's Prediction: 2003 with 58%



Guest’s Analysis - sPOOPY

2013 is no slouch when it comes post 2009 years, after 2011 it could be our strongest year. Last of Us was worth 40% on KH2 in the BGE contest which is fairly respectable for a western game. Grand Theft Auto V was worth 42% on SMRPG. Throw in some Nintendo stuff like a weak Pokemon (because new fans vs old fans) and Fire Emblem game and could definitely have another round 1 match where the losing side at least breaks 40%. 2003 has a nice mixture of Nintendo, Pokemon, Japanese and Western games which allows 2003 to have a respectable amount of depth, even though none of the games world beaters.

spooky's prediction - 2003 with 59%



Crew Consensus: 3 > 13
---

Round 1 – 2015 vs. 2005

Moltar’s Analysis

I don’t know why, but 2011 vs 2006 makes me hesitate a little here. 2005 should have this in the bag since 2015 doesn’t have a Skyrim like beast or huge pic advantage going for it. 2005 isn’t all that strong though, mainly just SotC and RE4 there. That’s really all it needs to beat 2015 though.

Not expecting a blowout here, but 2005 should take this by a comfortable margin. I feel like The Witcher 3 has enough casual clout here to make 2015 look semi-respectable.



okay mgs5, bloodborne, and even undertale help it here too this is definitely going to be a lot closer

Moltar’s Bracket: 2005

Moltar’s Prediction: 2005 - 55%



transience’s Analysis

Look, man, 05 ain't that good. RE4 and SOTC are fine games, and Phoenix Wright might bring some boys to the yard, but it's really missing that special game. I lost a lot of respect for RE4 when it went down to Mario RPG. SOTC is fun as the MGS-killer but I think that's more of a novelty than anything. Too bad MGS5 didn't get into the poll.

15's a great modern year. Witcher 3 is only going to improve over time. Undertale.. god, I'm scared to talk about Undertale. It's legit but it's probably not a rally target. It's more popular now than it was then but it's also less likely to get a big run here. Rocket League isn't our kind of game and Fallout 4.. is actually fine, but isn't gonna shake the heavens like 3 did.

I'm scared of 2015 here, but I'll go with the chalk.

transience's prediction: 2005 with 53.36%



Leonhart’s Analysis

I’ve got 2005 here, but I’ve never really felt good about it, even without taking into consideration the possibility of 2015 getting a rally. I think it’s one of the weaker modern years. RE4 isn’t what it used to be, and as much as I respect Shadow of the Colossus, both as a game and a contest entrant, that can’t be your second strongest game if you want to do well. Phoenix Wright has come a long way in the last 12 years, but the Ace Attorney games have never been particularly strong. 2005 isn’t deep and it’s not top heavy, but its anchor is stronger than anything 2015 has to offer (in unrallied form, of course), which is what it’ll have to rely on to win.

2015 may not have high top end strength from any of its games, but it’s got some solid and influential games in its corner, like Witcher 3, Bloodborne, Fallout 4, MGSV, and, of course, Undertale. It’s got a good amount of depth. My biggest concern with 2015 is that it doesn’t have a really good Japanese game on its side, but 2011 managed just fine the other day without one (although it did have a Zelda, even if it was Skyward Sword).

I really feel like this is a tossup, so I’m going to turn against my bracket and side with 2015 here. I’m not expecting a rally or anything, and if all else fails, at least I’ll save the Crew from another curse!

Leonhart’s Vote: 2005

Leonhart’s Prediction: 2015 with 55.55%
---

Kleenex’s Analysis

2015's a weird one. There's some big games - Witcher 3, Bloodborne, Undertale, MGSV - but Undertale notwithstanding, none of them are really GameFAQs strong. Even Witcher 3 - 2015's game of the year on this site - couldn't beat MGS2 and MGS in general didn't look great last time around. 2005 is...whatever. I still think 2005 isn't really much to write home about.

So here's the thing. Undertale is in the match today. Do people try to recapture the 'magic' from last time? Do people anti-vote 2015 out of spite? Does anyone actually care anymore? 2011 showed that with a match pic advantage, you can take out years that you probably shouldn't beat. Problem is, I don't think 2015 has that advantage. Rocket League seems like a miss here and I think I'd much rather see either Bloodborne or MGS5 on here, and I'd rather Undertale have one of the top 2 slots.

I have 2015 making it a few rounds in my bracket but I'm starting to talk myself out of that pick. In my mind 2015 is certainly a much better year for games, but I'm struggling to see GameFAQs having the same opinion.

Kleenex's Prediction: 2005 with 60%



Guest’s Analysis - Luster Soldier

Out all the entrants in this contest, 2015 was the only year that could have gotten a rally in Round 1. 2016 was another possible year, but it would have been lucky to get above 30% in its match and had a serious uphill battle to dig its way out of that hole with a rally. 2015 is located in a much more advantageous position, potentially capable of breaking 40% on 2005 through natural strength alone.

2015 has some games of decent strength, with both The Witcher 3 and Fallout 4, along with Undertale as well. More than a year has passed by since the 2015 GotY polls, which helps The Witcher 3 and Fallout 4 improve their playrates even more. Both games are probably stronger today than they were in the 2015 GotY polls. 2005 has the stronger anchor in Resident Evil 4 and solid backup from SotC and Phoenix Wright. God of War should be much weaker today compared to the GotD contest and thus a non-factor in 2005's strength. 2015 might have a better chance of winning this match if the match picture had Bloodborne instead of Rocket League, a game that should probably win head to head against God of War.

The rally potential of this match is the only thing that even gives 2015 a chance of winning this match. Considering that we're averaging about 16000 votes per match in this contest, a 60/40 match would be equal to a 3200 vote lead for 2005. This lead is less than half the size that Mass Effect 3 had on Undertale before the rally kicked into full gear. 2005 will have much less of a lead to work with before any rally can take place. It all comes down to how much the Undertale fanbase cares about rallying for 2015. The game doesn't have as much of a presence on Tumblr these days, so it will be harder to start a rally on Tumblr.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: 2005

Luster Soldier's Prediction: 2005 – 59.48%



Crew Consensus: 2005 is the favorite
---

go Leon!
---

you can thank me in about 45 minutes
---

unfortunately I need a few more minutes to gauge that board vote!

excited to see tonight. this is like the last piece of the puzzle. this fourpack has been painful because no one cares about that much in it.
---

I should have written all my analyses before I submitted my bracket

It would have been much better
---

you're all welcome
---

Yay 59% was about right
---

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 19
Guest: 19
Kleenex: 19
transience: 18
Leonhart: 16

Crew Accuracy Challenge: tran gets the point for 00 and 97, Moltar gets the point for 96 and 91, Leon gets the point for 02, Tsunami gets the point for 94, Bane gets the point for 92, Kleenex gets the point for 03, Luster gets the point for 05

Kleenex: 5
transience: 5
Guest: 4 (Dp, Tsunami, Bane, Luster)
Moltar: 3
Leonhart: 2
---

slackin'

we might finish the Crew in one topic this year. sad!
---

Round 2 – 1995 vs. 1987

Moltar’s Analysis

round 2 already woo

87 already proved in Round 1 that it can beat a year that’s held up by a single game. However, Chrono Trigger is no Super Mario Bros. on GameFAQs. CT is still one of the very strongest games here, and the other games behind it aren’t complete nothings (though that Round 1 match pic would say otherwise).

1987 should put up a respectable showing considering the amount of depth it has, and it does look like voters are taking that into account when voting. Still, CT’s overwhelming presence here is just too much. If Round 1 was CT vs. SMB, this is going to be CT vs. LoZ, and playing out like that should be enough for 1987 to coast to Round 3.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1995

Moltar’s Prediction: 1995 - 64%



transience’s Analysis

I'm doing this writeup blind. For all the talk of 2006's disastrous match picture, 1995 is undoubtedly got the worst of the round. Chrono Trigger is quite literally on its own with three games that are pretty obscure by this site's standards. Fortunately for 95, it drew 1986 in round 1, the worst year in modern video gaming history.

If it gets the same picture, 95 could be in trouble. 87, after all, has some really core franchises in its back pocket: Castlevania, Donkey Kong,. Punch-Out!!, etc. For some of round 1, I considered 87 as a real upset shot, maybe even 50-50. Depth has shown its power and 87 has it.

But then someone, I think Leonhart, said something that snapped me out of it. 1987 is just Zelda 1 and a bunch of fodder. Donkey Kong is not a popular game. Nor is Castlevania 1, or any Castlevania besides SOTN and maaaybe the DSvanias. Mega Man 1 just isn't good. Punch-Out already lost to Donkey Kong which, again, nobody likes. Metroid 1 is kind of a wretched game. 87 gives the outward appearance of strength, and it went to town on 85, but 91/88 and 96/89 both suggested that our early years have a lot more overlap than the PS1 and on era. In that light, 87 has a big hill to climb.

Now, if Chrono Trigger gets saddled with three poor games again, maybe it drowns under the weight of having to carry an entire year. But if it gets Earthbound, DKC2 and Yoshi's Island? Good night, 1987. If it even gets one or two of those, or other noteworthy console games during that era, it'll be fine.

transience's prediction: 1995 with 63.35%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Okay, now we’ve actually got a little bit of data to work with here! 1995 did what it was supposed to do in getting 89% on perhaps the weakest non-vote-in year, while 1987 might have had the most surprising performance of the round (because it happened first) when it nearly tripled 1985. I’ve seen some people picking 1987 to win here because it has more depth than 1995, but I don’t know that I really buy that. 1995 is Chrono Trigger and some midtier games, but 1987 is Zelda 1 and some fodder games. Sure, Metroid 1, Castlevania 1, and Mega Man 1 launched big franchises, but none of those games are popular on their own. I guess some people would argue that those games have some sort of “respect factor,” but I feel like 1985 wouldn’t have gotten tripled if that was worth very much! I still think 1995 wins pretty easily, although I don’t know what it needs to hit to feel good going into next round.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1995

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1995 with 70.50%
---

Kleenex’s Analysis

Round 2 Time! Get hyped (?)

1995 scored the blowout of the contest so far, so now we get to see if it can hold up those kinds of numbers against a year that has a bit more than Bubble Bobble and Balloon Fight. 1987 is legit, and honestly probably has more theoretical depth than 1995 does, but Chrono Trigger absolutely annihilates anything '87 has to offer. These '80s years just don't have the punch they need to compete with the hot spot years of the '90s and early '00s. My bracket hopes '95 can put up another monster here, because next round will be where the real matches start.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1995 with 68%



Guest’s Analysis - Big Bob

In my opinion, this is the year where the contest title comes to a head. Last round we saw Super Mario Bros get its ass kicked when it tried to hold a year by itself, and this will be doubly so with 1995. This match is essentially Chrono Trigger vs. the universe. None of the games in 1987 are worldbeaters - they're all outclassed by their superior sequels. But if there's a "Contest Title Boost", this is where it counts.

Zelda, Metroid, Mega Man, Castlevania. These games paved the industry's path for decades. This match is strange because voters will be split between voting for quality vs. voting for history. Chrono Trigger is one of this site's top games, but it's on its own - the second strongest game that year is Earthbound, for crying out loud. So the question is, where will voters go?

I'm guessing 87. It already kicked 85's ass, and the way this contest has been trending, "respect" is going to be more of a factor than usual. In particular, 2004's stellar performance shows it, because while Half-Life 2 and World of Warcraft are nowhere near the popularity of FFVI and Super Metroid here, it put up a very respectable performance.

Ultimately, Chrono Trigger just won't be able to hold up on its own. It'll have its supporters, for sure, but I think the year of the classics edges it out.

1987 - 55%


Crew Consensus: 95 stays alive
---

Well, someone was bold enough to pick the upset here.

1995/1987 is the only match of its kind that we'll see in this contest. The year with an anchor of overwhelming strength against a year with a ton of low-level depth. Each of these 1987 games would get 25% or less against Chrono Trigger, with Zelda 1 probably maxing out at 25% on CT and everything else at 20% or less.
---

about time the Guest started doing his job

I've been having to fill in for him
---

Contest title boost, here we go!
---

Round 2 – 2001 vs. 2008

Moltar’s Analysis

alright i got big money on 2001 so it better rock faces here

2008 looks an awfully lot like 2014 on paper…or maybe that’s just because they both have Smash and MGS games in them. 2001 is still one of the strongest and deepest years in the bracket, and stuff like Fallout 3 and MGS4 and GTA4 can’t compare to even the 2nd tier stuff in 2001, let alone Melee and FFX. 2008 should fare a little bit better than 2014, but I’m still expecting 2001 to go hard.

Moltar’s Bracket: 2001

Moltar’s Prediction: 2001 - 70%



transience’s Analysis

2008 is a baby version of 2001. Melee vs. Brawl, MGS2 vs. MGS4, Fallout 3 vs... okay, it doesn't go that far. It's going to be awfully hard for 2008 to stand up to that.

I don't think this will be SFF or anything. 2008 stands well on its own. It's totally reasonable to prefer the MGS4/Brawl/F3 grouping over the FFX/MGS2 (assuming it's even there)/Melee grouping. But 08 isn't as influential to this site as 2001. Our average age is something like 28. People were ~14 when they were playing the 2001 games and ~21 in 2008. Games you play at 14 will always just make a bigger impact.

2001 is probably the top half favorite going into r2 - let's see if it can hold on to it.

transience's prediction: 2001 with 69.35%



Leonhart’s Analysis

I don’t think there’s any question 2001 wins here. The big issue is how high it needs to go to look like the favorite going into next round. I think 2008 is pretty strong, with a really solid top four in Fallout 3, MGS4, Brawl, and Persona 4, all of which were represented in its round 1 match pic. I won’t hold it against 2001 too much if it doesn’t blow the doors off of 2008 here, but if it can come close or outdo 1995’s performance, I’d probably consider it the favorite because I think 2008 is stronger than 1987.

Leonhart’s Vote: 2001

Leonhart’s Prediction: 2001 with 65.15%



Kleenex’s Analysis

2008 impressed me last round. Granted, I think 2009 is kind of junk, but still. It has a solid lineup and may actually put up more of a fight here than people think. 2001 is one of the 'big' years, and it's not going to lose to the likes of MGS4 and Brawl. For now, 2001 just takes its win and we get to compared today's matches to start debating what happens between 1995 and 2001 next round.

Kleenex's Prediction: 2001 with 65%



Guest’s Analysis - Tsunami


Crew Consensus: 01 stays fun
---

The Mana Sword posted...

Probably a bit of both, though I'm personally leaning more towards 1994 being a bit weaker than expected. FF6 is strong, and SM is decent but I think its kinda gotten overrated through that Majora's Mask match last contest. It didn't even break 60% on Galaxy the round before, which I don't think is some huge accomplishment.

But it was! Since when has Samus ever been able to beat Mario directly? Never, that's when. More Oracles had SMG winning outright (15) than SM breaking 60% (11), though I will concede that the records show that you were not only among those 11, but the second-highest. (And, uh, I'll also concede that I was among the 15 who picked that one wrong.)

But, no, I'm not surprised at all that 2004 is strong and I wouldn't be concerned about 1994's future prospects.

transience posted...

huh, a lot of 2004 disrespect here!

I gave 2004 plenty of respect! I honestly feel like it could've reached the Elite Eight with a more balanced bracket, because there are only seven years in this bracket that I think would beat it. Unfortunately, it got hit with one of them in Round 1.
---

Master Moltar posted...

Guest’s Analysis - Tsunami

Oh, wait, crap, I'm on day 1 of R2?

So, yeah, 2001 is really strong, and overwhelmingly, when a year with a Zelda game faces a year without a Zelda game, the year with the Zelda game wins. So far the only exceptions to this rule are 1991 > 1988, which barely even counts because if we go by first release instead of NA release, 1991 is the only one in that match with a Zelda game, and...2008 > 2009. Okay, forget about that theory, which I came up with to explain why 2000 is going to beat 1996.

Either way, this is Melee vs....Brawl? Wait, no, forget I said that; Brawl won that match in GotD! Um...MGS2 was stronger than MGS4 indirectly via their SotC matches?

...I give up. Every time I try to come up with a good argument for why 2001 is going to win, I wind up with an argument for why 2008 could pull the upset, even though there's no way that happens. The real reason, I suppose, is that in addition to having Melee and MGS2 and some Zelda games (even if they are only the Oracle games), it also has FFX. Now, I've long been arguing that Square games more than a decade old start weakening, with the exception of FFVII which will never die and FFVI which actually seems stronger now than it was when contests first started, but even a weakened FFX is still a strong enough #2 to Melee to take anything 2008 can dish out. And with low votals, most voters are probably well-informed enough to know that 2001's actually far deeper than can fit in the infobox, whereas 2008, uh...has a GTA game in its infobox even though those have never done anything here. That said, I seem to have talked myself into giving 2008 a lot more credit than it deserves, so...

2001 with 65% of the vote.
---

alright, time to ditch these shitty pictures
---

Round 2 – 1997 vs. 2007

Moltar’s Analysis

Easy match right here. 1997 is one of the strongest years in the contest while 2007 should be around 1999 in strength considering it has no heavy-hitters on the site. Expecting a performance similar to its round 1 showing here.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1997

Moltar’s Prediction: 1997 - 72%



transience’s Analysis

I have a lot of respect for 2007. It's on the 2004 tier for me, maybe even higher. It's got a great picture too with its four best games. 2007 is the signature year for the Xbox 360 especially, but also the PS3 and Wii. It's got amazing diversity with Bioshock, Galaxy, Mass Effect and Portal.

1997 doesn't have its best but it's 3 for 4. Goldeneye, SOTN and our the Final Fantasy VII is pretty darn good. If 1997 doesn't break 60%, that's okay - I think 2007 is great. 2001 has been set up for greatness the whole way by drawing 2014 and 2008. 1997 has rougher competition.

transience's prediction: 1997 with 59.55%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Yeah, 1997 wins here. There’s no debating that, at least I don’t think so. How well does it need to do to look good going into next round? I don’t really know. 2007 did well last round, but 2012 might be the weakest post-2000 year in the contest. At the very least, it can’t do worse than the 2000/1996 winner (unless there’s some weird SFF in that match or something). Don’t really know what else to say about this one! I think 1997 will do fine, and I still like it to win next round, too…at least until the matches start anyway.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1997

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1997 with 70.70%



Kleenex’s Analysis

I'm on my phone here so I'll have to keep this short. Luckily, there's not much to talk about with this match. 2007 is still weak, and 1997 is the second or third strongest year in this bracket. This match won't be close.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1997 with 67%



Guest’s Analysis - tennisboy213

Both years had nearly identical 77% performances in round one. 1997 is one of the favorites to make it out of this half of the bracket. It has a strong anchor and a nice supporting cast, especially starting in round 3, where user-submitted pics begin. It will be able to strengthen its nintendo lineup with games like Mario Kart 64 and Star Fox 64. Yes, it already had Goldeneye, but that isn't your traditional nintendo game. It will need all the help it can get next round.

This match isn't in question though. 2007 had a strong round one performance, and has a nice lineup of midcarders that are aesthetically pleasing in the match pics, but with no anchor and falling outside the nostalgia sweet spot, it just can't stand up to 1997. The other match today is the exciting one.

tennisboy213's bracket: 1997 > 2007
tennisboy213's vote: 1997
tennisboy213's prediction: 1997 with 65.5%


Crew Consensus: 199 Final Fantasy 7
---

thanks for the point guys
---

Round 2 – 2000 vs. 1996

Moltar’s Analysis

oh boy this is a fun one

Originally I took 2000 here because I felt that it’s a deeper year than 1996, and the combined power of Majora’s Mask, Pokemon GSC, FF9, D2, and more would outweigh SM64 and SMRPG, which pretty much draw from the same fanbase.

How do I feel know that the contest is over half-way over? Pretty much the same even though 2000 doesn’t get Pokemon in the pic to help it out. Depth seems to be key here, with voters voting for the sum of the whole rather than just the parts. Sure, a beast like Chrono Trigger can carry a year, but even its struggling with a mildly deep year like 1987.

SM64 is no Chrono Trigger, but it does have a bit more backup than CT did with the rest of 1995. Combine that with 2000 having more strength overall than 1987, and you’ve got a real match.

I’m sticking with my bracket and the deeper year here, but this could easily go anyway.

Moltar’s Bracket: 2000

Moltar’s Prediction: 2000 - 52%



transience’s Analysis

ARGH. I hate that we're using round 1 pictures! 2000 has an outside shot at the final. Its strongest four are FF9, Majora's Mask, GSC and Diablo 2. It's got great natural strength and it hits all platforms. Unfortunately, it's getting saddled with Perfect Dark -- which isn't bad -- and Deus Ex, which kind of is.

I like to dump on 1996 for a lack of depth, but in this situation it's actually deeper than 2000. Super Mario 64 isn't THAT much better than FF9 or Majora, but Mario 64/SMRPG vs. Majora/FF9 is probably a toss-up, maybe a slight advantage to 96. I'm gonna stick with 2000 here but I'm mad about it. It shouldn't be this tough for it.

transience's prediction: 2000 with 51.00%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Yeah, I don’t know what to think of this match at all. 2000 had one of the closest matches of round 1 (technically speaking), and 1996 laid the smack down on 1989 probably harder than it should have because Tetris will always buckle to classic games, so I don’t think that match matters much. 2000 is the deeper year (although I don’t know if the match pic really reflects that well), but 1996 is the more influential year solely because of Mario 64. I don’t know how many people take that into account, but I imagine some do. People have wondered if having your two best games be from essentially the same franchise hurts 1996, but I don’t think it matters too much.

I was hoping I could talk myself into picking one or the other by the end of this writeup, but I’m still not sure! I’ll go with 1996 because I assume 2000 is the favorite and I’ll save the Crew from another curse.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1996

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1996 with 53.25%
---

Kleenex’s Analysis

This one is a bit tougher. I think on raw game strength, 2000 should win this. It's got Zelda, Final Fantasy, Pokemon - most of the things you'd want. I'm not sure the picture is going to do it any favors, though. Pokémon is missing. FF9 isn't until slot 3. However, looking at 1996's picture, I don't think it fares that well either. It's got Mario 64 and...Mario RPG in the 4th slot. I think straight up I'd probably take MM over Mario 64. So this depends on how much of a factor Mario RPG is. My gut is telling me to stick with 2000. I'd feel a lot better about it if Pokemon was in the picture, but I still think it's a stronger year overall. Don't let me down, voters.

Kleenex's Prediction: 2000 with 54%



Guest’s Analysis - spooky96

Oh man this is a tough one. Both these years did pretty good in round 1. 1996 only has Mario going for it while you have a pretty good depth in 2000 in the name of Zelda, Square and Pokemon. While none of the 2000 games beat Super Mario 64 head-on, but combine the fanbases FF9, MM and GS and I think that would be just enough to beat 1996. Now that we know that we're using round 1 pics, if 1996 loses by a small margin, I'm really going to blame the match pics because of the absence of Gold/Silver, a game worth 45% on a strong game like Melee.

As we've finished round 1, we all know that one anchor can't carry a year, and this seems like a good example of it. Even though you could argue that Super Mario 64 and SMRPG are pretty strong games, its really unfortunate that they're both just Mario. I have 1996 winning in my bracket, but it looks like 2000 should have this.

spooky's prediction - 2000 with 58%


Crew Consensus: 2000 is the heavy favorite for this debated match
---

thanks Leon
---

somebody's gotta do it since the Guest won't pick upsets anymore
---

transience posted...

thanks for the point guys

you're welcome
---

these results being so seemingly picture reliant is very frustrating
---

whoa am I finally going to steal one
---

huh, I have 96 in my bracket. I guess there's some upside here!
---

man 1997 is a monster. 2007 beats 2008, right? maybe that's a tossup, who knows.
---

Really? 2008 seems much stronger than 2007 to me.
---

Holy shit, a close match, with lead changes and everything!
---

8 vote different at about 7:55AM EST. That is ridiculously tight.

-MS

I voted for 1996 forgetting/ignoring what I had in my bracket. I have 2000 in my bracket, FWIW. And whoa, yeah, I didn't realize just how close it was because of the horrendous votals. I have to go out for a bit later on, but this is certainly the match to watch, and it was probably the one I most debated when making my bracket. The power of Mario/N64 vs LoZ/FF/Pokemon/PS2. 1996 also has CRASH BANDICOOT though!
---

The Mana Sword posted...

Really? 2008 seems much stronger than 2007 to me.

I think it's pretty close. How strong is 2008's big three still? They've all kind of fallen off or being obsoleted over the years.
---

Surprised to see that my bracket is actually on the winning end. I did end up voting for 1996, but only because I use "U.S. release date if available" rather than "U.S. release date only" as my criteria; these two years are pretty close for me, and I don't think 1996 gets my vote without Seisen no Keifu!
---

oh man looks like I'll sweep the day for the first time all contest

heck yeah
---

Round 2 – 1991 vs. 2002

Moltar’s Analysis

After some close match excitement, we’ve got what should be a boring predictable day. What will be interesting is comparing 1991 and 1994 in their matches, since that should be a fun showdown next round.

Anyway, 1991 is a strong year with depth, while 2002 is a decent year with some depth, but certainly not on the same scale. This should be an easy win for 91, but 2002 isn’t going to get blown out.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1991

Moltar’s Prediction: 1991 - 66%



transience’s Analysis

Okay, I'm out of town for a week so my writeups will be from my phone. Don't expect much!

91/02 has always weirdly fascinated me. Before the contest, I put forth a way to pick the bracket:

1. year closest to 1998 wins
2. in the case of a tie, the older year wins

So far, that bracket is -1 and possibly only because of the match picture imbalance. I bring this up because 91/02 is the one match where that logic goes against conventional wisdom. 02 is sneaky good and 91 is pretty old - is there any potential here? Probably not, but I'd like to think there's a nonzero chance.

transience's prediction: 1991 with 59.99%



Leonhart’s Analysis

Both 1991 and 2002 had very good first round performances. Coupled with 1994’s performance, 1991 seems to have become a bigger favorite for the big showdown next round, but that could change here. I believe 2004 is stronger than 2002, so at the very least, 1991 needs to outdo 1994’s first round percentage to remain the favorite. I still think 2002 is pretty solid though, so I won’t panic if 1991 doesn’t go sky high here.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1991

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1991 with 64.25%



Kleenex’s Analysis

I think 2002 did a bit better than I expected last round, but now it's up against some real competition - competition it can't beat. 1991 might actually be scary strong. It has the big games, it has depth, and if systems come into play next round, it has the biggest one. This round should be an easy win.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1991 with 68%




Guest’s Analysis - Luster Soldier

On paper, this match has some upset potential looking at the games featured in both match pictures. 1991 has the strongest game between both years with Super Mario World, but 2002 has Metroid Prime and Kingdom Hearts which are both stronger than the other 3 games from 1991. The major weak spot with 2002 is Warcraft III and Vice City, which are weaker than any game from 1991.

1991 would normally struggle in Europe with 3 games that draw heavily upon the SNES, but the presence of Sonic here gives it some ability to receive votes from Europe while 2002's duo of Metroid Prime and Kingdom Hearts are both below average in Europe. With 2002 having 2 games weaker than the 1991 games, the odds of an upset on this match is fairly low.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: 1991

Luster Soldier's Prediction: 1991 - 58.76%


Crew Consensus: Score another 1 for 91
---

Round 2 – 1994 vs. 2011

Moltar’s Analysis

Congrats on your upset victory 2011, now you get the honor of bowing out to 1994 today!

Neither 2011 or 2006 are strong years, and it is very likely that 2004, 1994’s Round 1 opponent, would beat both of those years. I’m not willing to let 1994 off the hook completely though, as I do think some of that is it getting exposed.

If 1994 struggles here again, then that’s definitely not a good look going into Round 3. It has to win big here to be the favorite going into next round, but I’m guessing that it will put up another middling performance.

Moltar’s Bracket: 1994

Moltar’s Prediction: 1994 - 64%



transience’s Analysis

94 kinda struggled with 04. 04 should be better than 11. - at the very least we should understand if 2011 is a fluke or not. 06 isn't great but it's probably not that much worse than 07 or 08. 97 and 01 set a good bar for us here. Can 94 go near it?

transience's prediction: 1994 with 63.34%



Leonhart’s Analysis

How much of the previous round’s match was 1994 not being as strong as people expected and how much was it 2004 being much stronger than people expected? I think it’s a combination of both, but I give more credit to 2004 than blame to 1994. I think 2004 is probably the third strongest modern year, after 2001 and 2000. 1994 should get a better chance to flex its muscles here. 2011 pulled the upset against an underrepresented 2006 last round, but it’s simply outclassed here. This will probably be pretty ugly and should demonstrate how much this site loves the SNES era compared to the modern era.

Leonhart’s Vote: 1994

Leonhart’s Prediction: 1994 with 73.60%



Kleenex’s Analysis

I'm still kinda reeling from 2011's win last round. Pics definitely matter here, but 1994's is totally fine, so that shouldn't be an issue.

However! I'm going throw something crazy out here. I don't think 2011 is completely dead in the water this round. I thought '94 looked pretty limp last round, and even with a large pic advantage, I thought 2011 looked pretty good. Now, I'm not quite crazy enough to actually pull the trigger on this upset, and I'm aware this would mean 2011 would need to be stronger than 2004, which sounds crazy. But if I were someone like, say, Lopen, it's something I might consider.

Kleenex's Prediction: 1994 with 60%



Guest’s Analysis - SpikeDragon




Crew Consensus: gonna get more 94
---

emergency guest analysis:

you guys have too much confidence in 94 after it stunk it up round 1, and are underestimating 2011. 94 will win but won't break 60.

94 - 59.83%
---

Oops I was actually about to email you mine!!
---

you can still get it in
---