Board 8 > Rigged Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1275

(+) Yeah! (+)

I really enjoyed Undertale, but Draven can go die in a fire. I don't know what to think about this.
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Allen better add either Fire Emblem Heroes or Echoes. Who cares if the latter came out 3 days ago, its original release never came out in the US prior anyways.
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So Undertale and Draven repping 2017? What in the world?
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GranzonEx posted...

Link vs Santa was just sad. That was on Christmas Eve as well!

Got some amazing match pics out of the deal, at least!
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So do we really believe 94/01 is a 50/50 match?
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Why not? I'd take 2001, but in my oracle I had them pretty close.
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That might not be that far from the truth. 1994 is a bit more top heavy but 2001 is a deeper year. But both 1994 and 2001 have a strong Nintendo as one of their anchors and they are trying to challenge OoT. As a result, it's hard to say how much SFF might affect this if at all. Like if FF7 trashed FF10's strength, I'm not sure 2001 beats 1997 even with the picture imbalance.
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I'd still take 2001. Melee has been SFF'd by Pokemon and OoT before, and the second strongest Nintendo game in 2001 is what, Paper Mario? Golden Sun? I imagine that's affecting the outcome. Compare that to Super Metroid which nearly beat Majora's Mask last time, and probably holds up to SFF better than it used to.
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First vote for Banjo. That's all I needed.
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Man, StarCraft not getting a lot of love.
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MGS and FFT pretending like it's 2004
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No Resident Evil 2 huh
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where the fuck is RE2
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BlackDra90n posted...

Man, StarCraft not getting a lot of love.

You say that, but then Starcraft "pulls away" from Parasite Eve.
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Where the fuck is WCW/nWo Revenge?
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

No Resident Evil 2 huh

Superfluous with PE on the poll
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*votes MGS*
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

BlackDra90n posted...

Man, StarCraft not getting a lot of love.

You say that, but then Starcraft "pulls away" from Parasite Eve.

Doubling achieved.
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RE2 should be there instead of Parasite Eve, but holy crap that list makes it easy to see why it won. This year is stacked.
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Score-Brackets-% Right
68----0--------0.00
67----6--------100.00
66----4--------100.00
65----13-------100.00
64----11-------100.00
63----11-------100.00
62----14-------92.86
61----32-------87.50
60----21-------90.48
59----25-------96.00
58----15-------80.00
57----29-------96.55
56----51-------74.51
55----62-------79.03
54----51-------78.43
53----55-------70.91
52----64-------79.69
51----77-------74.03
50----81-------75.31
49----71-------66.20
48----117------54.70
47----110------67.27
46----112------74.11
45----111------68.47
44----101------59.41
43----107------69.16
42----118------54.24
41----115------53.91
40----117------52.14
39----106------47.17
38----105------43.81
37----120------39.17
36----105------31.43
35----118------35.59
34----96-------21.88
33----94-------20.21
32----94-------11.70
31----88-------13.64
30----92-------19.57
29----81-------9.88
28----85-------5.88
27----81-------4.94
26----78-------3.85
25----72-------4.17
24----69-------2.90
23----85-------0.00
22----65-------0.00
21----68-------1.47
20----77-------0.00
19----76-------1.32
18----55-------0.00
17----67-------0.00
16----64-------0.00
15----54-------5.56

Everyone with a score of 14 or less got the match wrong.

Only one person in the Top 59 picked against 1998. For some reason there's a sharp decline in faith in 1998 at -12 (56 points). Above that point, each scoring tier has a sky high prediction percentage.

No one fell off the Top 50. The one person in the Top 59 who picked against 1998 was not one of the people on the Top 50.
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whatisurnameplz posted...

RE2 should be there instead of Parasite Eve, but holy crap that list makes it easy to see why it won. This year is stacked.

Yeah, it is RIDICULOUS to think there is a year so strong that Resident Evil god damn 2 wouldn't even make the TOP TEN!!!!

*votes for Weltall-2 out of fear of System Id*
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ya go my aya brea
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Pokemon RBY is getting almost doubled by OoT here, but I think an actual match between the two would be much closer (probably under 60%). I think people might be more likely to vote OoT in this poll since that game is stronger and likely to play a bigger role in making 1998 the overall winner of the contest.
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I wonder how many of the 81s will win a prize. I thought I saw SD say his was a fun bracket and we know Allen's is. My tiebreaker is 270k off though so I doubt it will be me.
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So... any way to find the stats and stuff? I was ranked 22 going in to the last match. I presume I'm still 22 because I can't imagine anyone in the top not choosing 98 but I want to know.
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Here's a link to the stats page:

https://www.gamefaqs.com/features/byg_stats
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OliviaTremor posted...

So... any way to find the stats and stuff? I was ranked 22 going in to the last match. I presume I'm still 22 because I can't imagine anyone in the top not choosing 98 but I want to know.

There's still a link to the contest on the front page.
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Come on Xenogears...plz stay above 5%!

You guys are so slow getting the x-stats together! At least I know that 1994 is 3rd place (yay). Who would've guessed that before round 2?
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Final X-Stats:

1. 1998 - 50.00%
2. 2001 - 33.81%
3. 1994 - 33.65%
4. 1997 - 32.64%
5. 1995 - 32.38%
6. 1991 - 31.38%
7. 1987 - 30.83%
8. 2002 - 28.29%
9. 2004 - 27.80%
10. 1992 - 27.15%
11. 2011 - 25.56%
12. 2006 - 23.08%
13. 2008 - 21.37%
14. 1996 - 20.14%
15. 2000 - 19.58%
16. 2007 - 18.94%
17. 2003 - 18.65%
18. 2010 - 16.76%
19. 2005 - 15.79%
20. 1985 - 15.78%
21. 2013 - 15.65%
22. 1999 - 14.85%
23. 1993 - 14.70%
24. 2016 - 13.96%
25. 1990 - 13.59%
26. 2015 - 12.94%
27. 2009 - 12.04%
28. 1981 - 11.86%
29. 2014 - 11.38%
30. 2012 - 8.88%
31. 1988 - 7.82%
32. 1986 - 7.13%
33. 1989 - 6.57%
34. 1978 - 4.57%
35. 1979 - 4.54%
36. 1983 - 3.98%

1973 - 0.06%
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X-Stats Bracket:

1) 1998
8) 1986

4) 2007
5) 2003

3) 2004
6) 2016

2) 2002
7) 1990


1) 1997
8) 2014

4) 1996
5) 2005

3) 2011
6) 1999

2) 1995
7) 1981


1) 1994
8) 2012

4) 2008
5) 1985

3) 2006
6) 2013

2) 1991
7) 2009


1) 2001
8) 1988

4) 2000
5) 2010

3) 1992
6) 1993

2) 1987
7) 2015
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Thank you. For some reason I couldn't find that link.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Final X-Stats:

1. 1998 - 50.00%
2. 2001 - 33.81%
3. 1994 - 33.65%
4. 1997 - 32.64%
5. 1995 - 32.38%
6. 1991 - 31.38%
7. 1987 - 30.83%
8. 2002 - 28.29%
9. 2004 - 27.80%
10. 1992 - 27.15%
11. 2011 - 25.56%
12. 2006 - 23.08%
13. 2008 - 21.37%
14. 1996 - 20.14%
15. 2000 - 19.58%
16. 2007 - 18.94%
17. 2003 - 18.65%
18. 2010 - 16.76%
19. 2005 - 15.79%
20. 1985 - 15.78%
21. 2013 - 15.65%
22. 1999 - 14.85%
23. 1993 - 14.70%
24. 2016 - 13.96%
25. 1990 - 13.59%
26. 2015 - 12.94%
27. 2009 - 12.04%
28. 1981 - 11.86%
29. 2014 - 11.38%
30. 2012 - 8.88%
31. 1988 - 7.82%
32. 1986 - 7.13%
33. 1989 - 6.57%
34. 1978 - 4.57%
35. 1979 - 4.54%
36. 1983 - 3.98%

1973 - 0.06%

Anyone think 1987 would actually beat 1992?

That's the only one I really disagree with.

I'd like to see 1995 vs 1997 heads up.

It's pretty clear that the upper half of the bracket is mostly worse off than it should be.

Thanks for nothing, 2001.
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Overall vote total for the entire contest as a whole - 590253


Anyways, today's poll has 1904 votes at the end of the first hour. It's possible today's poll could have been slightly frontloaded at the start if people were expecting a bonus match, so this poll should finish somewhere between 17000 and 20000 votes.
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Final Top 10 Stats

Top 10 Biggest Blowouts
1. 1995 – 89.00% vs. 1986 – 11.00% - Round 1 – 78.00%
2. 1991 – 87.54% vs. 1988 – 12.46% - Round 1 – 75.08%
3. 1998 – 85.93% vs. 1993 – 14.07% - Round 1 – 71.76%
4. 2005 – 85.53% vs. 1978 – 14.47% - Wildcard – 71.06%
5. 1996 – 83.69% vs. 1989 – 16.31% - Round 1 – 67.38%
6. 2001 – 83.17% vs. 2014 – 16.83% - Round 1 – 66.34%
7. 1998 – 81.35% vs. 2003 – 18.65% - Round 3 – 62.70%
8. 2009 – 81.10% vs. 1979 – 18.90% – Wildcard – 62.20%
9. 1997 – 77.25% vs. 1999 – 22.75% - Round 1 – 54.50%
10. 2007 – 76.56% vs. 2012 – 23.44% - Round 1 – 53.12%

Top 10 Largest Vote Gaps
1. 1995 – 14966 vs. 1986 – 1849 – Round 1 – 13117
2. 1991 – 14850 vs. 1988 – 2114 – Round 1 – 12736
3. 1998 – 14822 vs. 1993 – 2427 – Round 1 – 12395
4. 1998 – 15764 vs. 2003 – 3614 – Round 3 – 12150
5. 2001 – 13966 vs. 2014 – 2826 – Round 1 – 11140
6. 1996 – 13583 vs. 1989 – 2648 – Round 1 – 10935
7. 2005 – 12343 vs. 1978 – 2088 – Wildcard – 10255
8. 2009 – 12792 vs. 1979 – 2978 – Wildcard – 9804
9. 1997 – 12363 vs. 1999 – 3640 – Round 1 – 8723
10. 1987 – 12549 vs. 1985 – 4319 – Round 1 – 8230

Top 10 Closest Matches
1. 1996 – 51.38% vs. 2000 – 48.62% - Round 2 – 2.76%
2. 2001 – 51.74% vs. 1997 – 48.26% - Round 4 – 3.48%
3. 2001 – 52.11% vs. 1995 – 47.89% - Round 3 – 4.22%
4. 1995 – 52.39% vs. 1987 – 47.61% - Round 2 – 4.78%
5. 1994 – 53.38% vs. 1991 – 46.62% - Round 3 – 6.76%
6. 2011 – 54.86% vs. 2006 – 45.14% - Round 1 – 9.72%
7. 1991 – 54.87% vs. 2002 – 45.13% - Round 2 – 9.74%
8. 2003 – 57.67% vs. 2005 – 42.33% - Round 2 – 15.34%
9. 2003 – 58.03% vs. 2013 – 41.97% - Round 1 – 16.06%
10. 1994 – 58.69% vs. 2004 – 41.31% - Round 1 – 17.38%

Top 10 Smallest Vote Gaps
1. 1996 – 7880 vs. 2000 – 7465 – Round 2 – 424
2. 2001 – 9218 vs. 1997 – 8598 – Round 4 – 620
3. 1995 – 8668 vs. 1987 – 7878 – Round 2 – 790
4. 2001 – 10156 vs. 1995 – 9333 – Round 3 – 823
5. 1994 – 9839 vs. 1991 – 8591 – Round 3 – 1247
6. 1991 – 8664 vs. 2002 – 7125 – Round 2 – 1539
7. 2011 – 9262 vs. 2006 – 7622 – Round 1 – 1640
8. 2003 – 9305 vs. 2005 – 6830 – Round 2 – 2475
9. 2003 – 9711 vs. 2013 – 7024 – Round 1 – 2687
10. 2005 – 9799 vs. 2015 – 6803 – Round 1 – 2996

Top 10 Most Popular Polls
1. 1998 vs. 2001 – Round 5 – 20614
2. 2001 vs. 1995 – Round 3 – 19489
3. 1998 vs. 1994 – Round 4 – 19454
4. 1998 vs. 2003 – Round 3 – 19378
5. 1997 vs. 1996 – Round 3 – 19363
6. 1994 vs. 1991 – Round 3 – 18429
7. 2001 vs. 1997 – Round 4 – 17816
8. 1994 vs. 2004 – Round 1 – 17441
9. 1998 vs. 1993 – Round 1 – 17249
10. 2002 vs. 2010 – Round 1 – 17086
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Top 10 Least Popular Polls
1. 2005 vs. 1978 – Wildcard – 14431
2. 2006 vs. 1981 – Wildcard – 15020
3. 2007 vs. 2012 – Round 1 – 15242
4. 1996 vs. 2000 – Round 2 – 15336
5. 1997 vs. 2007 – Round 2 – 15497
6. 1989 vs. 1983 – Wildcard – 15678
7. 2009 vs. 1979 – Wildcard – 15760
8. 1991 vs. 2002 – Round 2 – 15789
9. 1994 vs. 2011 – Round 2 – 15815
10. 1997 vs. 1999 – Round 1 – 16003

Top 10 Highest Individual Votes
1. 1998 – Round 3 – 15764
2. 1995 – Round 1 – 14966
3. 1991 – Round 1 – 14850
4. 1998 – Round 1 – 14822
5. 2001 – Round 1 – 13966
6. 1998 – Round 5 – 13644
7. 1996 – Round 1 – 13583
8. 1997 – Round 3 – 13389
9. 1998 – Round 4 – 12908
10. 2009 – Wildcard – 12782

Top 10 Lowest Individual Votes
1. 1986 – Round 1 – 1849
2. 1978 – Wildcard – 2088
3. 1988 – Round 1 – 2114
4. 1993 – Round 1 – 2427
5. 1989 – Round 1- 2648
6. 2014 – Round 1 – 2826
7. 1979 – Wildcard – 2978
8. 2012 – Round 1 – 3573
9. 2003 – Round 3 – 3614
10. 1999 – Round 1 – 3640

Top 10 Least Impressive Winners
1. 1996 – Round 2 – 7880
2. 1991 – Round 2 – 8664
3. 1995 – Round 2 – 8668
4. 2001 – Round 4 – 9218
5. 2011 – Round 1 – 9262
6. 2003 – Round 2 – 9305
7. 2003 – Round 1 – 9711
8. 2005 – Round 1 – 9799
9. 1994 – Round 2 – 9809
10. 1994 – Round 3 – 9839

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers
1. 1995 – Round 3 – 9333
2. 1997 – Round 4 – 8598
3. 1991 – Round 3 – 8591
4. 1987 – Round 2 – 7878
5. 2006 – Round 1 – 7622
6. 2000 – Round 2 – 7456
7. 2004 – Round 1 – 7205
8. 2002 – Round 2 – 7125
9. 2013 – Round 1 – 7024
10. 2001 – Round 5 – 6970

Top 10 Most Predictable Matches
1. 1995 vs. 1986 – Round 1 – 88.66%
2. 2009 vs. 1979 – Wildcard – 87.86%
3. 1998 vs. 1993 – Round 1 – 87.84%
4. 1989 vs. 1983 – Wildcard – 87.35%
5. 1991 vs. 1988 – Round 1 – 86.54%
6. 1996 vs. 1989 – Round 1 – 86.18%
7. 2005 vs. 1978 – Wildcard – 85.96%
7. 2001 vs. 2014 – Round 1 – 85.96%
9. 2006 vs. 1981 – Wildcard – 83.03%
10. 1997 vs. 1999 – Round 1 – 81.06%

Top 10 Least Predictable Matches
1. 2001 vs. 1997 – Round 4 – 17.06%
2. 1994 vs. 1991 – Round 3 – 19.84%
3. 2003 vs. 2005 – Round 2 – 27.77%
4. 1994 vs. 2011 – Round 2 – 35.74%
5. 2001 vs. 1995 – Round 3 – 36.25%
6. 1998 vs. 2001 – Round 5 – 36.52%
7. 2005 vs. 2015 – Round 1 – 40.10%
8. 1996 vs. 2000 – Round 2 – 46.81%
9. 1994 vs. 2004 – Round 1 – 49.15%
10. 1997 vs. 1996 – Round 3 – 49.41%
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To think that had I just added one more 0 at the end of my tiebreaker I would've been pretty close.

But it doesn't matter matter since I'm no where near winning a prize.
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Go Ocarina!

Destroy that false god Pokemon RBY
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Pre-contest I made a bracket for this contest. I didn't include the vote-in winners since we didn't know them at the time. Given what we know now some of the matches would have still held up well. Also I know Tetris is listed as a 1986 game, but technically it was one.

Division 1

1) 1998 (LoZ: Ocarina of Time, Pokemon Red/Blue)
8) 2009 (Uncharted 2, Batman: Arkham Asylum)

4) 2011 (Skyrim, LoZ: Skyward Sword)
5) 1999 (Final Fantasy VIII, Super Smash Bros.)

3) 1990 (Super Mario Bros. 3, Final Fantasy)
6) 2005 (Resident Evil 4, Shadow of the Colossus)

2) 2004 (Metal Gear Solid 3, Half-Life 2)
7) 2007 (Super Mario Galaxy, Mass Effect)

Division 2

1) 1995 (Chrono Trigger, SMW2: Yoshi’s Island)
8) 2012 (Borderlands 2, Xenoblade Chronicles)

4) 2003 (LoZ: Wind Waker, SW: Knights of the Old Republic)
5) 2008 (Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Metal Gear Solid 4)

3) 1996 (Super Mario 64, Super Mario RPG)
6) 2016 (Final Fantasy XV, Pokemon Sun/Moon)

2) 2006 (LoZ: Twilight Princess, Kingdom Hearts II)
7) 1989 (Mega Man 2, Super Mario Land)

Division 3

1) 1997 (Final Fantasy VII, GoldenEye 007)
8) 1986 (Tetris, Bubble Bobble)

4) 1987 (The Legend of Zelda, Metroid)
5) 2010 (Mass Effect 2, Final Fantasy XIII)

3) 2000 (LoZ: Majora’s Mask, Pokemon Gold/Silver)
6) 2014 (Super Smash Bros. 4, Shovel Knight)

2) 1994 (Final Fantasy VI, Super Metroid)
7) 1988 (Super Mario Bros. 2, Zelda II)

Division 4

1) 2001 (Super Smash Bros. Melee, Final Fantasy X)
8) 2013 (LoZ: A Link Between Worlds, The Last of Us)

4) 1985 (Super Mario Bros., Duck Hunt)
5) 1993 (LoZ: Link’s Awakening, Secret of Mana)

3) 1992 (LoZ: A Link to the Past, Sonic 2)
6) 2002 (Kingdom Hearts, Metroid Prime)

2) 1991 (Super Mario World, Final Fantasy IV)
7) 2015 (Witcher 3, Undertale)
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When is the winner and actual final standings usually announced (I honestly can't remember). The top 6 all have the same score and the remaining 4 are tied as well, so the tiebreakers are going to shuffle them all around I would assume.

Agent M posted...

When is the winner and actual final standings usually announced (I honestly can't remember). The top 6 all have the same score and the remaining 4 are tied as well, so the tiebreakers are going to shuffle them all around I would assume.

From the Rules page.

Winner Notification

On or around May 31, 2017, potential prize winner(s) (the "Prize Winners") will be notified by email and/or the internal notification system on the gamefaqs.com site.

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_SecretSquirrel posted...

From the Rules page.

Okay thanks. Also in the fine print: I may be required to answer a mathematical skill testing question. Under a time limit. Unassisted. Possibly offline. Hey, we go to school up here too!

0,06%? That has to be a record.
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tennisboy213 posted...

I wonder how many of the 81s will win a prize. I thought I saw SD say his was a fun bracket and we know Allen's is. My tiebreaker is 270k off though so I doubt it will be me.

I'm also a fun bracket @ 10th. It's a pity but hey, I live in Australia. Hope I at least get something site related dont really need monetary prizes anyway
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36,52% had OoT as the winner. Is that a record?
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It's actually not even close to a record. Sephiroth had 76.51% of the brackets picking him to win the villains contest. Since we already had several character battles at that point, everyone knew that Sephiroth was the strongest.
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Forget that contest then. What about the others?
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FFDragon posted...

where the fuck is RE2

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So it looks like the dreadnought, crush-everything lineup for 1998 would be something like:

Ocarina of Time / Pokemon RB
Metal Gear Solid / Final Fantasy Tactics
Xenogears / Half-Life
Starcraft / Resident Evil 2

Yeeep pretty beastly.
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