Poll of the Day > German elections are today

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Will the leader of the Free world Angela Merkel win?

Of course. Did the German people have any actual choice?
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Almost for sure.

Real question to me is how many seats Alternative for Germany will win. Wouldn't be surprised if they get over 15% of party list votes.

At the very least the FDP and the AfD should get over 5% of the vote this election so they will be in the parliament along side the CDU, SPD, Left and Greens
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From what I've read of the opposing party, they don't have a clear message. Just a vague anti-Merkel sentiment. I don't put much hope on her losing control.

wah_wah_wah posted...

From what I've read of the opposing party, they don't have a clear message. Just a vague anti-Merkel sentiment. I don't put much hope on her losing control.

Yeah, from my understanding since the last election the CDU and SPD have converged to the point where their platforms are largely the same, so all SPD really has going for it is being anti-Merkal and a few small differences like being pro-LGBT
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madadude posted...

wah_wah_wah posted...

From what I've read of the opposing party, they don't have a clear message. Just a vague anti-Merkel sentiment. I don't put much hope on her losing control.

Yeah, from my understanding since the last election the CDU and SPD have converged to the point where their platforms are largely the same, so all SPD really has going for it is being anti-Merkal and a few small differences like being pro-LGBT

If they went socialist left with an anti-refugee platform they'd probably get her out of there. But the opposition is like the Democrats here. They don't have a big idea.

I haven't paid any attention to this and had no idea their election was today. That's a shame, because the holder of the position of Chancellor of Germany is undoubtedly the current "leader of the free world".

I'd be impressed if Merkel won; last I heard her approval rating was among the worst of all world leaders. But that was over a year ago.
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faramir77 posted...

I'd be impressed if Merkel won; last I heard her approval rating was among the worst of all world leaders. But that was over a year ago.

The way it works is that the leader of whichever party gets the most votes for parliament becomes Chancellor, so the people aren't voting for individuals they are voting for parties, and the party with the biggest support from all polls is still the Christian Democratic Union which Merkal has been the leader of for well over a decade.
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And yeah projections at the moment from the votes coming in are

32.9% Christian Democratic Union - center-right
20.2% - Social Democratic Party - center-left
13.3% - Alternative for Germany - right wing/nationalist
10.5% - Free Democratic Party - right/libertarian
9.3% - Green - left/environmental
9% - The Left - socialist

and then other parties but none of them will get 5% which is required for seats in the parliament.
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madadude posted...

faramir77 posted...

I'd be impressed if Merkel won; last I heard her approval rating was among the worst of all world leaders. But that was over a year ago.

The way it works is that the leader of whichever party gets the most votes for parliament becomes Chancellor, so the people aren't voting for individuals they are voting for parties, and the party with the biggest support from all polls is still the Christian Democratic Union which Merkal has been the leader of for well over a decade.

But that's really the problem. The opposition at this point can only stand against Merkel and not for anything. It is pretty much presumed at this point that if you vote for the opposition, you're going to be less a Merkel but retain much of the German state policy of the Merkel era. It is pretty much a referendum only on her at this point, which is why I don't see the opposition parties succeeding at all.

Also I just realized actually the major decision will be what parties will form the government coalition. Since parties basically need to group together to the point where they have more than 50% of the seats to form the ruling coalition.

Before this election the two biggest parties had a grand coalition and a pretty centrist government as a result.

If they want a right-wing government which they likely do, the obvious choice is the CDU choosing the FDP to form a coalition with, however at the moment it looks like they will only make up 45% of the government together.

So, if they go for a right-wing government they will also have to invite the nationalist party to join them. However they could also just form a coalition with the Social Democratic Party again like was already in place. Or maybe some other formation? I'm not sure I haven't heard anything regarding what is likely to happen in that regard.
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Everyone knows zombie hitler is going to win
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Actually it looks like the SDP have officially declared they will not form a coalition this time, so the only options are either the nationalist party joining in, though to my understanding they won't because they are anti-EU and Merkel is pro-EU, or they will have to have the Greens join in, which would be unusual obviously.

And if no group decides to join in with the CDU and FDP, apparently the election might have to be redone?

European elections are so interesting in comparison to the United States. So much more complicated yet at the same time make more sense in terms of representation.
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