Board 8 > Prediction: No one currently in the top 50 will finish on the leaderboard.

(+) Yeah! (+)

Yup.
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That's an interesting prediction.

It's true that, because of how much more later matches are worth, that there's likely extremely little correlation between who has picked matches well so far and who will finish in the top 50. If we assume that the current top 50 and the final top 50 are independently and randomly determined, then... well, there's a 99.3% chance any given bracket ends up in the top 50, and the odds of any of the current top 50 being one of those brackets is thus about 1-(0.993)^50 ~= 30%, which would suggest your prediction is the more likely outcome.

That said, there is SOME correlation between having a good bracket now and a good bracket later (in particular, deliberately bad brackets will be absent from both), so the 30% might be a slight underestimate. Probably not much of one, though. So in conclusion I think you're more likely than not to be right, but it's definitely a toss-up.
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yeah I have some bad picks in later rounds, like Yoshi > Pikachu for starters

That would be good for me
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yeah because I'm not on the leaderboard right now
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I have 3 in the top 20 right now.

Bring it
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Dva69 posted...

I have 3 in the top 20 right now.

Bring it

You won't finish anywhere near the top 50.
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Well, I most definitely won't.
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This is probably the only time I'll be on there, as I have Joel winning today and it looks like he wont if things hold.
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ExThaNemesis posted...

Dva69 posted...

I have 3 in the top 20 right now.

Bring it

You won't finish anywhere near the top 50.

How do you know the future my dude
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FlyingForever posted...

How do you know the future my dude

I am a sayer of the sooth.
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I have Aloy > D.Va and that will cost me my third point. I'm probably saying bye to the leaderboard in 22 hours and change.
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Yeah I'm in 5th right now, pretty worried about some later picks, but I still think I'll have enough points saved up now that I could stay in the lower half of the leaderboard
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Finally broke in, in position 43. I should climb a tiny bit tomorrow but I'm going to sink like a rock once Round 2 matches start. I already have one automatic-loss banked up.
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That moment when you dread checking the leaderboard, expecting yourself to have fallen off due to a miss (Ryu over Simon in this case), only to find that you've somehow improved in standing and are now in the top twelve.

I suppose I should savor the view while I can. It's only a matter of time before it all comes tumbling down...
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I got two wrong and expected to maybe drop to 10th or so but nope, still tied for first. Yesterday was a tough day. I also have Joker winning today so there goes another point.

I had Sans > Pacman but made the leaderboard today as well. This is my 1st time on a main contest leaderboard, and I'm currently 4/4 today :D
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It looks like I'll be taking a minus-1 for Magus (don't expect him to recover with the day vote). I'm happy with a temporary 7th place though... the last time I blipped into the top 10 was two or three contests ago.
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I definitely won't be visiting the leaderboards anytime soon. Had L-Block and Riku each winning 3 rounds. Whoops....

I banked on a rally and failed, so no top 50 for me lolz
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I think the rest of my bracket all looks pretty good.... except I have Charizard going deep. So yeah, I'm out.
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At least a few people will get there. As more rally characters fall (or fail to amount anything of significance), Link's odds of winning increase. If I had to pull a number out of my ass, I'd say he has 90-95% chance of winning right now. I'm also guessing everyone or almost everyone currently in the Top 50 has Link winning, and that alone will amount to almost 200 points of the 700-point max score. Among the other high-value matches, only Snake/Mario/Cloud/Crono REALLY have a chance, and all of those guys probably have enough representation among guys in the Top 50 right now.

Even if Crono makes a miracle run, he can only beat Cloud and cost most people 16 points before he runs into the Link wall. 16 points won't be a huge deal that late in the game (remember, 700-point bracket).

And the loser's bracket, which absolutely will be a bloodbath, is only 8 points per battle and won't be responsible for a death of all the current leaderboard because everyone - Top 50 or not - will be bleeding points from that thing.

Realistically, a Link loss is the only thing that can vanquish the entire leaderboard.
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Errors propagate. The more matches you get wrong early, the more likely that you automatically have later matches wrong because they feature eliminated characters winning.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

At least a few people will get there. As more rally characters fall (or fail to amount anything of significance), Link's odds of winning increase. If I had to pull a number out of my ass, I'd say he has 90-95% chance of winning right now. I'm also guessing everyone or almost everyone currently in the Top 50 has Link winning, and that alone will amount to almost 200 points of the 700-point max score. Among the other high-value matches, only Snake/Mario/Cloud/Crono REALLY have a chance, and all of those guys probably have enough representation among guys in the Top 50 right now.

Even if Crono makes a miracle run, he can only beat Cloud and cost most people 16 points before he runs into the Link wall. 16 points won't be a huge deal that late in the game (remember, 700-point bracket).

And the loser's bracket, which absolutely will be a bloodbath, is only 8 points per battle and won't be responsible for a death of all the current leaderboard because everyone - Top 50 or not - will be bleeding points from that thing.

Realistically, a Link loss is the only thing that can vanquish the entire leaderboard.

I do actually take yoblazer's word on this.

But remember I made this topic like a week and a half ago.
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ExThaNemesis posted...

CaptainOfCrush posted...

At least a few people will get there. As more rally characters fall (or fail to amount anything of significance), Link's odds of winning increase. If I had to pull a number out of my ass, I'd say he has 90-95% chance of winning right now. I'm also guessing everyone or almost everyone currently in the Top 50 has Link winning, and that alone will amount to almost 200 points of the 700-point max score. Among the other high-value matches, only Snake/Mario/Cloud/Crono REALLY have a chance, and all of those guys probably have enough representation among guys in the Top 50 right now.

Even if Crono makes a miracle run, he can only beat Cloud and cost most people 16 points before he runs into the Link wall. 16 points won't be a huge deal that late in the game (remember, 700-point bracket).

And the loser's bracket, which absolutely will be a bloodbath, is only 8 points per battle and won't be responsible for a death of all the current leaderboard because everyone - Top 50 or not - will be bleeding points from that thing.

Realistically, a Link loss is the only thing that can vanquish the entire leaderboard.

I do actually take yoblazer's word on this.

But remember I made this topic like a week and a half ago.

You should've posted the Top 50 at that time.
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