Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

(+) Yeah! (+)

I thought youd be in the 50s due to Glados beating Ike and equaling Keflka. it kinda depends on how fraudulent Glados is in 2018.
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Well, Drake flopping today also kind of reaffirms my feelings that GlaDOS isn't going to be as strong as she looked in 2013.

I'd still love for her to do it, but I don't feel good about it.
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If GlaDOS drops down to her 2010 strength, Mewtwo could break 70%. But hopefully she hasn't fallen THAT far... that doesn't sound very likely to me.
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2010 Mewtwo vs. 2010 GlaDOS projects out to a 60/40 win, for what it's worth.
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wow Lopen is flirting with a perfect prediction right now

analytical mind indeed
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If only Miles Edgeworth inspired me to do proper analysis more often I'd still have a job with picks like that. Speaking of not doing proper analyses

Lopen's Unofficial Analysisx4

Tifa v Geno

We get to check Smash hype and FFVII deboost here. But the problem is they're both seen in the same place, so who knows. I think Tifa holds up, possibly even smashing him harder than expected due to that weird SFF (?) that Tifa got against Vyse. I don't actually know what expected is so I'm just going to throw out a percentage and move on.

Anyone think it's funny that boobs got paired up with wood? ... no?

Tifa with 80.08%

GlaDOS vs Mewtwo

Mewtwo is an ace fraud. He's so fraudulent that he has masterfully plotted his course even now by going up against a character that has many reasons to drop, but with just enough reasons to not (being a more memorable character than Gourdon) that we can't know for sure. Fraud detection will not begin here, but I still feel it will come.

Mewtwo with 68.98%

Dedede vs Revolver Ocelot

I believe this one projects out to an easy win for Ocelot. Strangely I took Triple D in my bracket without thinking about it. Seeing how this contest has gone so far, being favorable to Nintendo and especially characters that resemble all the creatures of planet earth, I have little reason to doubt my instincts, here.

Dedede with 56.33%

Mega Man X vs Isabelle

Isabelle stands out as being the one character in the bracket I can't identify by name. I'm not familiar with every character but I could at least have told you what game or series they were from. I could spoil myself and go find the descriptive text (it may not be quite so obscure as I think), but it's kinda funnier not to.

Mega Man X with 80.18%
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Lopen posted...

Anyone think it's funny that boobs got paired up with wood? ... no?

stick to Uranus jokes

(see what I did there?)
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I did see what you did there

Cited the wrong planet as I only make Neptune jokes
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Round 1 King Dedede vs. Revolver Ocelot

Moltars Analysis

Alright MGS has not looked great so far. The Boss and Big Boss has mid-50% wins over their opponents, but they also faced stronger competition than Dedede.

Dedede made one contest and never came back until now. He, like Rosalina, is way down on the Nintendo totem pole. Weve seen Ocelot a fair bit, and he can hold his own against opponents like this. Yeah Nintendo has looked good this contest, but theres only so much of a gap that Dedede can make up here, and that gap is wayyyyy to big.

Moltars Bracket: Ocelot

Moltars Prediction: Ocelot 57%

transiences Analysis

Man, what a trap match. There's probably people hyping up the smash direct that's coming on Thursday too which hits halfway through the match.

It's pretty easy to roll over on Ocelot here. I mean, this is the guy who went down to Pac-Man in a fairly famous end-of-the-round rollover. He also lost a nailbiter to Red that wouldn't be anything close to close today. He doesn't have Magus's rep, but if you throw in the old villain contest letdown he probably should. At least he didn't drop the Wily match.

But King Dedede... I mean, first, I don't think the direct matters here unless it draws tons of people to talk Smash afterwards. I guess we can measure that one in real time. Dedede is about as low on the smash pole as you can get, I think. Yeah, he's there, but I can't remember anyone being particularly excited about him being there. He was the King K Rool of Brawl announcements: very whatever.

I get people abandoning Ocelot by the dozen because of Ocelot, but not because Dedede is particularly notable. The Boss held up okay vs. Metal Sonic - not the greatest barometer, but enough to tell me that Metal Gear should be OK. This isn't a new character like Drake or Joker. This is an old classic from a well-loved series. Ocelot can hang on here. I think.

transience's prediction: Ocelot with 55.64%

Leonharts Analysis

I really dont understand why Board 8 wanted Dedede back in here. I guess you could say he had an unfair draw in 2008 getting stuck in a match with Pit, but he still lost to Pit and that was pre-Uprising. What reason does Dedede have to be stronger now? Hes facing a notorious choker and underachiever in Ocelot though, so you cant totally rule out his odds here. Im not a fan of Ocelot getting an MGSV pic either. I still think hed do noticeably better if he got MGS3 pics, but the Villains Contest is the only time hes ever gotten one.

I wonder if the boards opinion of this match has changed after seeing how well Nintendo has done thus far, but its not like theyre invincible. Weve still seen them lose easily against characters clearly stronger than them. I dont know if that applies to Ocelot of all people, but Ill stick with him and hope his doppelganger Restallver Lossalot doesnt show up instead!

Leonharts Vote:: Revolver Ocelot

Leonharts Prediction: Revolver Ocelot with 53.50%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Looking over my bracket, I actually took Ocelot here and I feel pretty stupid for doing that! We only have one data point on Dedede and it doesnt look great, but that was 10 years ago, and NintendoFEAR is running rampant in 2018. Ocelot has never been worth all that much, and with SmashHype likely at a fevered pitch today, especially considering the impending Nintendo Direct, Im going with the penguin over the ocelot.

Kleenexs Prediction: King Dedede with 54%

Guests Analysis - Luster Soldier

King Dedede was never worth much at all, even during the height of BRAWLFEAR during the 2008 contest. In that contest, Dedede came in last place, barely finishing below Pit and getting close to tripled by Hayabusa/Zero. That was Dedede's only contest appearance prior to this contest. Dedede would have likely gotten under 40% against 2008 Ocelot, so Dedede has his work cut out for him to close that huge gap. Ocelot is very likely to be weaker than the 2008 version who was just coming off MGS4.

Since then, Dedede has appeared in another Smash game (with another soon to come) while Ocelot's only appearance after 2013 was in MGSV. It's hard to evaluate the MGS crew up to this point since Big Boss faced a likely improved Ridley, while The Boss went up against the unknown Metal Sonic. Big Boss looked okay given that Ridley is probably stronger following his Smash reveal, while Metal Sonic is probably just slightly worse than Shadow.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Revolver Ocelot

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Revolver Ocelot - 57.77%

Crew Consensus: Revolver Wincelot
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thanks for taking the hit Kleenex
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man I think Ocelot/Meta Knight would be good (Falcon got a real shot, Fox is getting one this contest, he'll be next for sure right) but again

Dedede lost to pre-Uprising Pit. Yeah we've seen some big, big boosts and Ocelot kind of sucks but as someone that likes Dedede there's only so much credit you can give this guy.
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finally my chance to catch up
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Ranticoot posted...

man I think Ocelot/Meta Knight would be good (Falcon got a real shot, Fox is getting one this contest, he'll be next for sure right) but again

Dedede lost to pre-Uprising Pit. Yeah we've seen some big, big boosts and Ocelot kind of sucks but as someone that likes Dedede there's only so much credit you can give this guy.

2008 Nathan Drake is projected to get tripled by 2008 Tails and people took that one.
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oh right I forgot about the blockbuster releases King Dedede has had since that contest
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I'm just saying basing something off 10 year old data from a SFF match as "there's only so much credit you can give this guy" is silly. Plenty of reasons for Dedede to go up because it's not all about game releases as much as voter demographic shifts and a ton of other things

Like Dedede might as well not have data. That 2008 match is worth less than nothing I think cause it gives the illusion that you have a clue of where he actually lands.
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he was in the K. Rool reveal trailer for Smash, thats all the blockbuster you need!
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The Mana Sword posted...

he was in the K. Rool reveal trailer for Smash, thats all the blockbuster you need!

I mean it's probably the best Ultimate reveal trailer so far

although Dedede is "that Kirby character everyone forgets about"

Kirby/Meta Knight was the rivalry that got in 2011. Heck, even in that K. Rool trailer where they're showing off all the Smash rivalries, they used Kirby/Meta Knight!

actually Dedede was one of the biggest heroes of Subspace Emissary so maybe that will help him
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Kirby/Meta got into the rivalry rumble because it's one of the few franchises that used the proper definition of rivalry rather than Hero/Villain pair.

Though I guess Kirby/Dedede fits that better than most Hero/Villain pairs at this point.
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Kirby/Meta Knight got in because they're both a lot more popular than Dedede! It's got nothing to do with Kirby fans being more savvy as to the actual definition of what a rivalry is!
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Wait shoot I think I was supposed to be the Guest for Tifa vs. Geno (I didn't write down what match I signed up for but I believe it was this one)

Geno sucks every contest

Tifa doesn't

Tifa with 73%

These guests though.
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Round 1 Mega Man X vs. Isabelle

Moltars Analysis

Is Isabelle in Smash?



oh yeah she is gg opponent



wait this is MEGA MAN X

Moltars Bracket: Mega Man X

Moltars Prediction: Mega Man X 76%

transiences Analysis

Do we really need every character announced for Smash? There's probably at least 32 dudes we can throw into a bracket of their own, right? Maybe even 64? Don't go through the effort of counting because ugh.

I don't want to waste time on this one. Mega Man X should win big. Here's hoping that he can take this eightpack.

transience's prediction: Mega Man X with 75.78%

Leonharts Analysis

Not much to say about this one. Isabelle should be really, really weak, even with the Smash announcement. This has blowout of the contest written all over it, and it wouldnt say much about Mega Man Xs chances to win the division, even if he gets it. This is a test of just how much a Smash announcement worth is for a random Nintendo character.

Leonharts Vote:: Mega Man X

Leonharts Prediction: Mega Man X with 80.80%

Kleenexs Analysis



Kleenexs Prediction: Mega Man X with 71%

Guests Analysis - handsomeboy2012

Isabelle probably won't even be here if she didn't get in Smash

Mega Man X wins with 73.73%

Crew Consensus: Isabelle blasted outta here.
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Mewtwo is going to annihilate Tifa
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Mewtwo is a fraud
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pray for Isabelle
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So FF7 really is something this year
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seriously though, at least Glados has a range. Geno, man.
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Also damnit Ocelot
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oh my god mega man x is gonna break 60% on whoever sucks less of tifa/mewtwo
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Master Moltar posted...

transiences Analysis

Do we really need every character announced for Smash? There's probably at least 32 dudes we can throw into a bracket of their own, right? Maybe even 64? Don't go through the effort of counting because ugh.

Here are the characters that have been in both Smash and at least one GameFAQs match.

PLAYABLE (56):
Bayonetta
Bowser
Captain Falcon
Captain Olimar
Charizard
Chrom
Cloud
Diddy Kong
Donkey Kong
Duck Hunt Dog
Falco Lombardi
Fox McCloud
Ganondorf
Ike
Isabelle
Jigglypuff
King Dedede
King K. Rool
Kirby
Link
Little Mac
Lucario
Lucina
Lucas
Luigi
Mario
Marth
Mega Man
Meta Knight
Mewtwo
Mr. Game & Watch
Nana
Ness
Pac-Man
Palutena
Pikachu
Pit
Pokemon Trainer Red
Princess Daisy
Princess Peach
Richter Belmont
Ridley
Rosalina
Ryu
Samus Aran
Shulk
Simon Belmont
Solid Snake
Sonic
Squirtle
Toon Link
Wario
Wolf O'Donnell
Yoshi
Young Link
Zelda

MII FIGHTER-COSTUMES (12):
Akira Yuki
Black Knight
Dunban
Geno
Heihachi
Knuckles
Lloyd Irving
Mega Man X
Proto Man
Tails
Toad
Zero

ASSIST TROPHIES/POKEBALLS/ITEMS (14):
Alucard
Andross
Blinky
Bomberman
Isaac
Lugia
Lyndis
Midna
Mother Brain
Paddle
Sandbag
Shadow the Hedgehog
Shovel Knight
Waluigi

STAGE-SPECIFIC AND CHARACTER-SPECIFIC CHARACTERS (7):
? Block
Captain Toad
Doc Louis
Dracula
Master Hand
Otacon
Tingle

TROPHIES AND STICKERS (17):
Agent J
Amy Rose
Big Boss
Black Shadow
Crazy Redd
Dr. Robotnik
Dr. Wily
Epona
Hades
Ken
Metal Sonic
Mudkip
Mr. Resetti
Rayman
Reyn
Roll
Tom Nook

GRAND TOTAL: 106

We might have more added tomorrow, and then maybe more again when it releases.
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relolver lossalot btw
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thanks H
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that list isn't even complete

just scanning it's missing Ivysaur and Popo
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How about those 10 year old 4 way potentially double SFF tainted statz though
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Tifa should end this looking okay, but yeesh that FF7 board vote is rotten
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ahh, theres the ff7 early vote thats so near and dear

so is mmx an amazing character or is this the first case of sff weve seen in 40 matches?
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i think it's more likely that the modern character is garbage
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alternately GOOD SIGN FOR METAL MAN > LARA CROFT
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I think Isabelle can be that level of ass without SFF or MMX being stronger than we think.
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transcience posted...

ahh, theres the ff7 early vote thats so near and dear

so is mmx an amazing character or is this the first case of sff weve seen in 40 matches?

Isabelle is just trash. Tom Nook is really weak and he's significantly more memorable than Isabelle is.
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MMX has always been legit elite, and I wont stand for this Isabelle slander
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but, the Trailer
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i mean, it could be both

and i wish sephiroth were facing someone with a decent board vote tomorrow
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th3l3fty posted...

that list isn't even complete

just scanning it's missing Ivysaur and Popo

I edited to clarify: those 106 characters from Smash were the 106 who have been in a GameFAQs match before.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

alternately GOOD SIGN FOR METAL MAN > LARA CROFT

Very clearly, yes -- good eye.
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If MMX is the first character in the contest to break 80%, then it isn't jst Isabelle being trash.

Im not sure what people expect from Mewtwo but this is pretty good for me. certainly better than that Charizard match.
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Don't get the FF7 hate.
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lordjers posted...

Don't get the FF7 hate.

Everything that gets too popular is bound to also get hated.

The Crew is a fraud.
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