Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 203: We Met at Borders

Topic List	Page List: 1 ... 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
CelesMyUserName 11/05/18 5:40:57 PM #301:	Eddv posted... Really Corrik must hate Fire Emblem too. "What the fuck it said they only had a 3% crit chance why did I get crit?" this post is why gamefaqs needs a Like button --- https://imgtc.com/i/1LkkaGU.jpg somethin somethin hung somethin horse somethin <cite>CelesMyUserName posted [p:911871125] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>Eddv posted...</cite> <quote>Really Corrik must hate Fire Emblem too. "What the fuck it said they only had a 3% crit chance why did I get crit?"</quote> this post is why gamefaqs needs a Like button</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 11/05/18 6:06:32 PM #302:	Corrik posted... red sox 777 posted... Corrik posted... ChaosTonyV4 posted... Corrik posted... xp1337 posted... remember the good ol' days when 538 and Silver were mocked for giving Trump a much better chance than everyone else (something I was guilty of too) Being the closest didn't make it less wrong and significantly in many areas. That isn't how probability works. If someone says there is a 30% chance of something happening, it doesn't make them wrong when it happens, because it will happen 3 out of 10 times. That is like saying I ain't wrong if I have it 99% because 1 time out of 100 it happens. If you ran that election exactly the same the outcome would happen the same every time. There is no randomness involved in it. You can't honestly believe if election day ran 10 times you would get 30% of one result and 70% of another result. That "probability" is just a confidence level. He was closest. But still far off. I mean, the actual outcome electorally was probably actual close to 1% territory tbqh. He was close on the popular vote. Which, again I think the problem is that he is going to attribute the popular vote to the entire country instead of accounting for just the further deepening of already deep areas. And closing of gaps that don't flip results. That's not what the probability is of. Once you have more information (like the actual results) of course the probability changes. Rerun the election in alternate universes and Hillary probably does not win 1 in 10,000. But that's because we know the result in our universe already. Like I said. The probability is just a confidence level in the data presented. It isn't an actual probability. Outside of abstract theory and quantum mechanics, that's what all probability is. You can predict a coinflip with enough data about the force and direction in which it is thrown, the wind speed, etc. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:911872653] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>Corrik posted...</cite> <quote><cite>red sox 777 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Corrik posted...</cite> <quote><cite>ChaosTonyV4 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Corrik posted...</cite> <quote><cite>xp1337 posted...</cite> <quote>remember the good ol' days when 538 and Silver were mocked for giving Trump a much better chance than everyone else (something I was guilty of too)</quote> Being the closest didn't make it less wrong and significantly in many areas.</quote> That isn't how probability works. If someone says there is a 30% chance of something happening, it doesn't make them wrong when it happens, because it will happen 3 out of 10 times.</quote> That is like saying I ain't wrong if I have it 99% because 1 time out of 100 it happens. If you ran that election exactly the same the outcome would happen the same every time. There is no randomness involved in it. You can't honestly believe if election day ran 10 times you would get 30% of one result and 70% of another result. That "probability" is just a confidence level. He was closest. But still far off. I mean, the actual outcome electorally was probably actual close to 1% territory tbqh. He was close on the popular vote. Which, again I think the problem is that he is going to attribute the popular vote to the entire country instead of accounting for just the further deepening of already deep areas. And closing of gaps that don't flip results.</quote> That's not what the probability is of. Once you have more information (like the actual results) of course the probability changes. Rerun the election in alternate universes and Hillary probably does not win 1 in 10,000. But that's because we know the result in our universe already.</quote> Like I said. The probability is just a confidence level in the data presented. It isn't an actual probability.</quote> Outside of abstract theory and quantum mechanics, that's what all probability is. You can predict a coinflip with enough data about the force and direction in which it is thrown, the wind speed, etc.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Jakyl25 11/05/18 6:16:28 PM #303:	https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1059576848663879682?s=21 Trump, in interview with @ABC7, says the one regret he has from his first two years in office is his tone. "I would like to have a much softer tone. I feel, to a certain extent, I have no choice. But maybe I do. And maybe I couldve been softer from that standpoint." What a cuck --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRlKR5nU8AA_v_C?format=jpg&name=large <cite>Jakyl25 posted [p:911873285] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1059576848663879682?s=21 <quote>Trump, in interview with @ABC7, says the one regret he has from his first two years in office is his tone. "I would like to have a much softer tone. I feel, to a certain extent, I have no choice. But maybe I do. And maybe I couldve been softer from that standpoint."</quote> What a cuck</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Suprak the Stud 11/05/18 6:18:47 PM #304:	It is "interesting" what has been going on with the Georgia governor's race. A couple of weeks ago, it was a toss up, but the closest to going over to the democrats. Since then, it has been passed by Ohio, Nevada (both on the democratic side now), South Dakota, and Kansas (both on the republican side still). Alaska is inching closer to passing it. There has been some serious momentum towards the democrats in the past couple of week in governors races, but Georgia just has been treading water. Polls have been really consistent in that race too, with almost all of them in the Abrams +2 to Kemp +2 range. There was a +4 Abrams today (by a lower tier polling place) and a +12 Kemp yesterday (by a lower tier polling place that I think is actually a republican polling firm - RCP lists it as such anyway even if 538 doesn't). --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." <cite>Suprak the Stud posted [p:911873428] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>It is "interesting" what has been going on with the Georgia governor's race. A couple of weeks ago, it was a toss up, but the closest to going over to the democrats. Since then, it has been passed by Ohio, Nevada (both on the democratic side now), South Dakota, and Kansas (both on the republican side still). Alaska is inching closer to passing it. There has been some serious momentum towards the democrats in the past couple of week in governors races, but Georgia just has been treading water. Polls have been really consistent in that race too, with almost all of them in the Abrams +2 to Kemp +2 range. There was a +4 Abrams today (by a lower tier polling place) and a +12 Kemp yesterday (by a lower tier polling place that I think is actually a republican polling firm - RCP lists it as such anyway even if 538 doesn't).</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
SupremeZero 11/05/18 6:31:37 PM #305:	https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059587175547842561 Hmm --- There's always hope for better things in life. But you can't let anything, friend, lover,God himself,be your hope. You have to be your own hope <cite>SupremeZero posted [p:911874297] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059587175547842561 Hmm</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Maniac64 11/05/18 6:36:17 PM #306:	I still have no belief that Abrams wins here in Georgia. Just from everything I've seen for ads and heard from people. Plus signage and the "extraordinary" measures taken by Kemp as Secretary of state. I feel reasonably certain Kemp will win. --- "Hope is allowed to be stupid, unwise, and naive." ~Sir Chris <cite>Maniac64 posted [p:911874586] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>I still have no belief that Abrams wins here in Georgia. Just from everything I've seen for ads and heard from people. Plus signage and the "extraordinary" measures taken by Kemp as Secretary of state. I feel reasonably certain Kemp will win.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Suprak the Stud 11/05/18 6:36:34 PM #307:	SupremeZero posted... https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059587175547842561 Hmm I don't know why that would influence their chances in the model though? I don't think Epsy is likely to win in a 1 on 1 scenario. At least all the polling I've seen has him down quite a bit when separated out. --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." <cite>Suprak the Stud posted [p:911874614] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>SupremeZero posted...</cite> <quote>https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059587175547842561 Hmm</quote> I don't know why that would influence their chances in the model though? I don't think Epsy is likely to win in a 1 on 1 scenario. At least all the polling I've seen has him down quite a bit when separated out.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Peace___Frog 11/05/18 6:43:45 PM #308:	TheRock1525 posted... Seriously Corrik must get super confused by baseball. "It said there was only a 30% chance he'd get a hit, and yet he did. The numbers were wroooooong!" Ok i laughed --- ~Peaf~ <cite>Peace___Frog posted [p:911875064] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>TheRock1525 posted...</cite> <quote>Seriously Corrik must get super confused by baseball. "It said there was only a 30% chance he'd get a hit, and yet he did. The numbers were wroooooong!"</quote> Ok i laughed</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
#309	Post #309 was unavailable or deleted.
Eddv 11/05/18 7:22:49 PM #310:	Suprak the Stud posted... SupremeZero posted... https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059587175547842561 Hmm I don't know why that would influence their chances in the model though? I don't think Epsy is likely to win in a 1 on 1 scenario. At least all the polling I've seen has him down quite a bit when separated out. The goofy bit isnt Espy rising to 41 its McDaniel in a statistical dead heat with Hyde-Smith that is adding uncertainty. --- Board 8's Voice of Reason https://imgur.com/chXIw06 <cite>Eddv posted [p:911877494] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>Suprak the Stud posted...</cite> <quote><cite>SupremeZero posted...</cite> <quote>https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059587175547842561 Hmm</quote> I don't know why that would influence their chances in the model though? I don't think Epsy is likely to win in a 1 on 1 scenario. At least all the polling I've seen has him down quite a bit when separated out.</quote> The goofy bit isnt Espy rising to 41 its McDaniel in a statistical dead heat with Hyde-Smith that is adding uncertainty.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Eddv 11/05/18 7:24:16 PM #311:	Maniac64 posted... I still have no belief that Abrams wins here in Georgia. Just from everything I've seen for ads and heard from people. Plus signage and the "extraordinary" measures taken by Kemp as Secretary of state. I feel reasonably certain Kemp will win. It feels like Kemp has done just enough to win it but that Abrams has a solid 40% shot at an upset --- Board 8's Voice of Reason https://imgur.com/chXIw06 <cite>Eddv posted [p:911877581] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>Maniac64 posted...</cite> <quote>I still have no belief that Abrams wins here in Georgia. Just from everything I've seen for ads and heard from people. Plus signage and the "extraordinary" measures taken by Kemp as Secretary of state. I feel reasonably certain Kemp will win.</quote> It feels like Kemp has done just enough to win it but that Abrams has a solid 40% shot at an upset</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Jakyl25 11/05/18 7:28:48 PM #312:	Eddv posted... Maniac64 posted... I still have no belief that Abrams wins here in Georgia. Just from everything I've seen for ads and heard from people. Plus signage and the "extraordinary" measures taken by Kemp as Secretary of state. I feel reasonably certain Kemp will win. It feels like Kemp has done just enough to win it but that Abrams has a solid 40% shot at an upset So if Abrams wins, youre wrong --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRlKR5nU8AA_v_C?format=jpg&name=large <cite>Jakyl25 posted [p:911877860] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>Eddv posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Maniac64 posted...</cite> <quote>I still have no belief that Abrams wins here in Georgia. Just from everything I've seen for ads and heard from people. Plus signage and the "extraordinary" measures taken by Kemp as Secretary of state. I feel reasonably certain Kemp will win.</quote> It feels like Kemp has done just enough to win it but that Abrams has a solid 40% shot at an upset</quote> So if Abrams wins, youre wrong</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
SupremeZero 11/05/18 7:29:41 PM #313:	Jakyl25 posted... Eddv posted... Maniac64 posted... I still have no belief that Abrams wins here in Georgia. Just from everything I've seen for ads and heard from people. Plus signage and the "extraordinary" measures taken by Kemp as Secretary of state. I feel reasonably certain Kemp will win. It feels like Kemp has done just enough to win it but that Abrams has a solid 40% shot at an upset So if Abrams wins, youre wrong Yes exactly --- There's always hope for better things in life. But you can't let anything, friend, lover,God himself,be your hope. You have to be your own hope <cite>SupremeZero posted [p:911877923] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>Jakyl25 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Eddv posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Maniac64 posted...</cite> <quote>I still have no belief that Abrams wins here in Georgia. Just from everything I've seen for ads and heard from people. Plus signage and the "extraordinary" measures taken by Kemp as Secretary of state. I feel reasonably certain Kemp will win.</quote> It feels like Kemp has done just enough to win it but that Abrams has a solid 40% shot at an upset</quote> So if Abrams wins, youre wrong</quote> Yes exactly</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Crossfiyah 11/05/18 7:29:52 PM #314:	Is anyone else excited by the fact that after tomorrow people like Ulti will be too ashamed to show their face in here for a little while. --- Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz" <cite>Crossfiyah posted [p:911877931] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>Is anyone else excited by the fact that after tomorrow people like Ulti will be too ashamed to show their face in here for a little while.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
SupremeZero 11/05/18 7:30:20 PM #315:	Crossfiyah posted... Is anyone else excited by the fact that after tomorrow people like Ulti will be too ashamed to show their face in here for a little while. Are you kidding? He'll be in here screaming about illegal voters. --- There's always hope for better things in life. But you can't let anything, friend, lover,God himself,be your hope. You have to be your own hope <cite>SupremeZero posted [p:911877965] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>Crossfiyah posted...</cite> <quote>Is anyone else excited by the fact that after tomorrow people like Ulti will be too ashamed to show their face in here for a little while.</quote> Are you kidding? He'll be in here screaming about illegal voters.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 11/05/18 7:32:26 PM #316:	I can't see Georgia flipping. Picking someone who excites national leftists has never worked for Democrats. It's like all that hype about flipping Texas - if you can flip Texas and Georgia you are virtually guaranteed to win less red states than those, so TX and GA have very little swing value nationally. Ulti, how are you feeling about tomorrow? I feel like California is such a bubble now that it's hard for me to gauge the national mood from here. Just not enough interaction with out of state people for me to have much confidence. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:911878091] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>I can't see Georgia flipping. Picking someone who excites national leftists has never worked for Democrats. It's like all that hype about flipping Texas - if you can flip Texas and Georgia you are virtually guaranteed to win less red states than those, so TX and GA have very little swing value nationally. Ulti, how are you feeling about tomorrow? I feel like California is such a bubble now that it's hard for me to gauge the national mood from here. Just not enough interaction with out of state people for me to have much confidence.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
pxlated 11/05/18 7:34:06 PM #317:	Crossfiyah posted... Is anyone else excited by the fact that after tomorrow people like Ulti will be too ashamed to show their face in here for a little while. Don't assume people like that are capable of shame --- [various robot sounds] <cite>pxlated posted [p:911878204] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>Crossfiyah posted...</cite> <quote>Is anyone else excited by the fact that after tomorrow people like Ulti will be too ashamed to show their face in here for a little while.</quote> Don't assume people like that are capable of shame</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LapisLazuli 11/05/18 7:36:30 PM #318:	You really think Ulti will ever concede that the dems flipped anything? Mr. Scala assassination? He would scream illegal voting conspiracy until he dies. --- https://i.imgur.com/WuDQzsc_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium <cite>LapisLazuli posted [p:911878338] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>You really think Ulti will ever concede that the dems flipped anything? Mr. Scala assassination? He would scream illegal voting conspiracy until he dies.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Crossfiyah 11/05/18 7:38:16 PM #319:	"Heres some perspective: An 86 percent chance is closer to Barack Obamas odds of winning in 2012 than Hillary Clintons in 2016. The difference is basically this: Clinton, who had a 71 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in our final forecast much lower than most journalists and most other statistical models assumed, as Im annoyingly obligated to point out lost the Electoral College on the basis of one thing going wrong: She underperformed her polls among white-working class voters in the MIdwest and the Rust Belt. That alone was enough to cost her Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and therefore the Electoral College.1 Obama, by contrast, because he tended to overperform in the Midwest and in other key swing states, would have needed multiple things to go wrong to lose to Mitt Romney. Even if Romney had a systematic polling error in his favor, Obama might still have won by holding on to narrow victories in the key Electoral College states. Likewise, Democrats need a couple of things to go wrong to lose tomorrow because not very much is going right for Republicans. (At least not when it comes to the House; its all going quite swimmingly for the GOP in the Senate.) At a macro level based on national indicators and the historical tendency of the presidents party to lose seats at the midterm elections the situation looks bad for Republicans. But at the local level when you evaluate factors one district at a time, as our model does it looks worse. The polling is bad for Republicans, the fundraising numbers are awful, and the slate of potential Democratic pickups runs deep into Republican territory. The data is uncertain, because it contains a margin-of-real-world-error. But I dont think the data is ambiguous. It says Democrats are over the threshold theyd need to win the House." Conservatives should read those two paragraphs before calling 538 partisan hackery. --- Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz" <cite>Crossfiyah posted [p:911878440] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>"Heres some perspective: An 86 percent chance is closer to Barack Obamas odds of winning in 2012 than Hillary Clintons in 2016. The difference is basically this: Clinton, who had a 71 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in our final forecast much lower than most journalists and most other statistical models assumed, as Im annoyingly obligated to point out lost the Electoral College on the basis of one thing going wrong: She underperformed her polls among white-working class voters in the MIdwest and the Rust Belt. That alone was enough to cost her Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and therefore the Electoral College.1 Obama, by contrast, because he tended to overperform in the Midwest and in other key swing states, would have needed multiple things to go wrong to lose to Mitt Romney. Even if Romney had a systematic polling error in his favor, Obama might still have won by holding on to narrow victories in the key Electoral College states. Likewise, Democrats need a couple of things to go wrong to lose tomorrow because not very much is going right for Republicans. (At least not when it comes to the House; its all going quite swimmingly for the GOP in the Senate.) At a macro level based on national indicators and the historical tendency of the presidents party to lose seats at the midterm elections the situation looks bad for Republicans. But at the local level when you evaluate factors one district at a time, as our model does it looks worse. The polling is bad for Republicans, the fundraising numbers are awful, and the slate of potential Democratic pickups runs deep into Republican territory. The data is uncertain, because it contains a margin-of-real-world-error. But I dont think the data is ambiguous. It says Democrats are over the threshold theyd need to win the House." Conservatives should read those two paragraphs before calling 538 partisan hackery.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 11/05/18 7:41:26 PM #320:	That's bold from 538. If the Republicans do hold the House 538 will look to be wrong, since they contrasted 86% and 70% so much. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:911878610] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>That's bold from 538. If the Republicans do hold the House 538 will look to be wrong, since they contrasted 86% and 70% so much.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
SupremeZero 11/05/18 7:50:53 PM #321:	Crossfiyah posted... "Heres some perspective: An 86 percent chance is closer to Barack Obamas odds of winning in 2012 than Hillary Clintons in 2016. The difference is basically this: Clinton, who had a 71 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in our final forecast much lower than most journalists and most other statistical models assumed, as Im annoyingly obligated to point out lost the Electoral College on the basis of one thing going wrong: She underperformed her polls among white-working class voters in the MIdwest and the Rust Belt. That alone was enough to cost her Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and therefore the Electoral College.1 Obama, by contrast, because he tended to overperform in the Midwest and in other key swing states, would have needed multiple things to go wrong to lose to Mitt Romney. Even if Romney had a systematic polling error in his favor, Obama might still have won by holding on to narrow victories in the key Electoral College states. Likewise, Democrats need a couple of things to go wrong to lose tomorrow because not very much is going right for Republicans. (At least not when it comes to the House; its all going quite swimmingly for the GOP in the Senate.) At a macro level based on national indicators and the historical tendency of the presidents party to lose seats at the midterm elections the situation looks bad for Republicans. But at the local level when you evaluate factors one district at a time, as our model does it looks worse. The polling is bad for Republicans, the fundraising numbers are awful, and the slate of potential Democratic pickups runs deep into Republican territory. The data is uncertain, because it contains a margin-of-real-world-error. But I dont think the data is ambiguous. It says Democrats are over the threshold theyd need to win the House." Conservatives should read those two paragraphs before calling 538 partisan hackery. Random note: It's not 86% anymore. Up to 87.4 --- There's always hope for better things in life. But you can't let anything, friend, lover,God himself,be your hope. You have to be your own hope <cite>SupremeZero posted [p:911879149] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>Crossfiyah posted...</cite> <quote>"Heres some perspective: An 86 percent chance is closer to Barack Obamas odds of winning in 2012 than Hillary Clintons in 2016. The difference is basically this: Clinton, who had a 71 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in our final forecast much lower than most journalists and most other statistical models assumed, as Im annoyingly obligated to point out lost the Electoral College on the basis of one thing going wrong: She underperformed her polls among white-working class voters in the MIdwest and the Rust Belt. That alone was enough to cost her Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and therefore the Electoral College.1 Obama, by contrast, because he tended to overperform in the Midwest and in other key swing states, would have needed multiple things to go wrong to lose to Mitt Romney. Even if Romney had a systematic polling error in his favor, Obama might still have won by holding on to narrow victories in the key Electoral College states. Likewise, Democrats need a couple of things to go wrong to lose tomorrow because not very much is going right for Republicans. (At least not when it comes to the House; its all going quite swimmingly for the GOP in the Senate.) At a macro level based on national indicators and the historical tendency of the presidents party to lose seats at the midterm elections the situation looks bad for Republicans. But at the local level when you evaluate factors one district at a time, as our model does it looks worse. The polling is bad for Republicans, the fundraising numbers are awful, and the slate of potential Democratic pickups runs deep into Republican territory. The data is uncertain, because it contains a margin-of-real-world-error. But I dont think the data is ambiguous. It says Democrats are over the threshold theyd need to win the House." Conservatives should read those two paragraphs before calling 538 partisan hackery.</quote> Random note: It's not 86% anymore. Up to 87.4</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Suprak the Stud 11/05/18 7:52:36 PM #322:	Eddv posted... Suprak the Stud posted... SupremeZero posted... https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059587175547842561 Hmm I don't know why that would influence their chances in the model though? I don't think Epsy is likely to win in a 1 on 1 scenario. At least all the polling I've seen has him down quite a bit when separated out. The goofy bit isnt Espy rising to 41 its McDaniel in a statistical dead heat with Hyde-Smith that is adding uncertainty. Ohhhhh that makes a bit more sense. Thanks! --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." <cite>Suprak the Stud posted [p:911879249] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>Eddv posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Suprak the Stud posted...</cite> <quote><cite>SupremeZero posted...</cite> <quote>https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059587175547842561 Hmm</quote> I don't know why that would influence their chances in the model though? I don't think Epsy is likely to win in a 1 on 1 scenario. At least all the polling I've seen has him down quite a bit when separated out.</quote> The goofy bit isnt Espy rising to 41 its McDaniel in a statistical dead heat with Hyde-Smith that is adding uncertainty.</quote> Ohhhhh that makes a bit more sense. Thanks!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
TheRock1525 11/05/18 7:52:40 PM #323:	Didn't the Senate jump to 20% thanks to some late game polling, too? --- TheRock ~ I had a name, my father called me Blues. <cite>TheRock1525 posted [p:911879252] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>Didn't the Senate jump to 20% thanks to some late game polling, too?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
SupremeZero 11/05/18 7:55:02 PM #324:	TheRock1525 posted... Didn't the Senate jump to 20% thanks to some late game polling, too? 18.7 --- There's always hope for better things in life. But you can't let anything, friend, lover,God himself,be your hope. You have to be your own hope <cite>SupremeZero posted [p:911879376] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>TheRock1525 posted...</cite> <quote>Didn't the Senate jump to 20% thanks to some late game polling, too?</quote> 18.7</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
#325	Post #325 was unavailable or deleted.
Jakyl25 11/05/18 11:38:51 PM #326:	If Dems win the House big time, but the GOP picks up even 1 Senate seat, the narrative will be that there was no blue wave --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRlKR5nU8AA_v_C?format=jpg&name=large <cite>Jakyl25 posted [p:911892433] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>If Dems win the House big time, but the GOP picks up even 1 Senate seat, the narrative will be that there was no blue wave</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Not_an_Owl 11/05/18 11:57:49 PM #327:	Jakyl25 posted... If Dems win the House big time, but the GOP picks up even 1 Senate seat, the narrative will be that there was no blue wave If it keeps Dem voters motivated for two more years, I'll take it. --- Besides, marijuana is far more harmful than steroids. - BlitzBomb I headbang to Bruckner. <cite>Not_an_Owl posted [p:911893289] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>Jakyl25 posted...</cite> <quote>If Dems win the House big time, but the GOP picks up even 1 Senate seat, the narrative will be that there was no blue wave</quote> If it keeps Dem voters motivated for two more years, I'll take it.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LordoftheMorons 11/05/18 11:57:58 PM #328:	I'm sure it will shock you guys to learn that Sean Hannity is a liar (two tweets): https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1059660066452856833 --- Congrats to BKSheikah for winning the BYIG Guru Challenge! <cite>LordoftheMorons posted [p:911893296] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>I'm sure it will shock you guys to learn that Sean Hannity is a liar (two tweets): https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1059660066452856833</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Jakyl25 11/06/18 12:02:44 AM #329:	LordoftheMorons posted... I'm sure it will shock you guys to learn that Sean Hannity is a liar (two tweets): https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1059660066452856833 This response really kills me. The Hannity fan mindset is so far removed from reality https://twitter.com/buzzglory69/status/1059490646929612800?s=21 --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRlKR5nU8AA_v_C?format=jpg&name=large <cite>Jakyl25 posted [p:911893495] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>LordoftheMorons posted...</cite> <quote>I'm sure it will shock you guys to learn that Sean Hannity is a liar (two tweets): https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1059660066452856833</quote> This response really kills me. The Hannity fan mindset is so far removed from reality https://twitter.com/buzzglory69/status/1059490646929612800?s=21</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Jakyl25 11/06/18 12:04:23 AM #330:	https://twitter.com/devinnunes/status/1057482359946113024?s=21 Apparently its a mindset the GOP majority has as well? --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRlKR5nU8AA_v_C?format=jpg&name=large <cite>Jakyl25 posted [p:911893567] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>https://twitter.com/devinnunes/status/1057482359946113024?s=21 Apparently its a mindset the GOP majority has as well?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LordoftheMorons 11/06/18 12:08:26 AM #331:	Guess that's what happens when your president paints you simultaneously as winners and victims --- Congrats to BKSheikah for winning the BYIG Guru Challenge! <cite>LordoftheMorons posted [p:911893751] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>Guess that's what happens when your president paints you simultaneously as winners and victims</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Jakyl25 11/06/18 12:11:08 AM #332:	https://twitter.com/snarke/status/1059647200567775234?s=21 Rush uses the word "indefatigable" and the crowd gets mad for calling #Trump tired. That just happened. He had to define the word for them to make them stop booing. #Trumprally Rush Limbaugh is now too intelligent for a Trump rally --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRlKR5nU8AA_v_C?format=jpg&name=large <cite>Jakyl25 posted [p:911893872] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>https://twitter.com/snarke/status/1059647200567775234?s=21 <quote>Rush uses the word "indefatigable" and the crowd gets mad for calling #Trump tired. That just happened. He had to define the word for them to make them stop booing. #Trumprally</quote> Rush Limbaugh is now too intelligent for a Trump rally</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LapisLazuli 11/06/18 12:18:02 AM #333:	Am I seeing correctly that Trump claimed he was the most brilliant human being who has ever lived? --- https://i.imgur.com/WuDQzsc_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium <cite>LapisLazuli posted [p:911894146] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>Am I seeing correctly that Trump claimed he was the most brilliant human being who has ever lived?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
red sox 777 11/06/18 12:19:55 AM #334:	Not_an_Owl posted... Jakyl25 posted... If Dems win the House big time, but the GOP picks up even 1 Senate seat, the narrative will be that there was no blue wave If it keeps Dem voters motivated for two more years, I'll take it. If a certain segment of Democrats got so demoralized they gave up on politics, the Democrats would have a better chance of winning IMO. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! <cite>red sox 777 posted [p:911894218] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>Not_an_Owl posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Jakyl25 posted...</cite> <quote>If Dems win the House big time, but the GOP picks up even 1 Senate seat, the narrative will be that there was no blue wave</quote> If it keeps Dem voters motivated for two more years, I'll take it.</quote> If a certain segment of Democrats got so demoralized they gave up on politics, the Democrats would have a better chance of winning IMO.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
MrGreenonion 11/06/18 1:38:24 AM #335:	https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07214-2 The plaintiffs, who include 21 people ranging in age from 11 to 22, allege that the government has violated their constitutional rights to life, liberty and property by failing to prevent dangerous climate change. They are asking the district court to order the federal government to prepare a plan that will ensure the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere falls below 350 parts per million by 2100, down from an average of 405 parts per million in 2017. By contrast, the US Department of Justice argues that there is no right to a climate system capable of sustaining human life as the Juliana plaintiffs assert. there's no what now --- SuperNiceDog didn't have to reconcile his name... But Dauntless Hunter is now MrGreenonion <cite>MrGreenonion posted [p:911897212] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07214-2 <quote>The plaintiffs, who include 21 people ranging in age from 11 to 22, allege that the government has violated their constitutional rights to life, liberty and property by failing to prevent dangerous climate change. They are asking the district court to order the federal government to prepare a plan that will ensure the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere falls below 350 parts per million by 2100, down from an average of 405 parts per million in 2017. By contrast, the US Department of Justice argues that there is no right to a climate system capable of sustaining human life as the Juliana plaintiffs assert.</quote> there's no what now</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ChaosTonyV4 11/06/18 1:51:05 AM #336:	Jakyl25 posted... https://twitter.com/devinnunes/status/1057482359946113024?s=21 Apparently its a mindset the GOP majority has as well? Conservatism is based on fear, and what causes more fear than endless victimhood? --- Phantom Dust. "I'll just wait for time to prove me right again." - Vlado <cite>ChaosTonyV4 posted [p:911897605] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>Jakyl25 posted...</cite> <quote>https://twitter.com/devinnunes/status/1057482359946113024?s=21 Apparently its a mindset the GOP majority has as well?</quote> Conservatism is based on fear, and what causes more fear than endless victimhood?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LordoftheMorons 11/06/18 6:38:29 AM #337:	How does Scott Walker manage to suck so hard? https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1059480467316006912 Here's to hoping he loses today! --- Congrats to BKSheikah for winning the BYIG Guru Challenge! <cite>LordoftheMorons posted [p:911903463] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>How does Scott Walker manage to suck so hard? https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1059480467316006912 Here's to hoping he loses today!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
#338	Post #338 was unavailable or deleted.
#339	Post #339 was unavailable or deleted.
Reg 11/06/18 7:58:57 AM #340:	LordoftheMorons posted... How does Scott Walker manage to suck so hard? https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1059480467316006912 Here's to hoping he loses today! Gross. Wouldn't surprise me if a decent chunk of that money was finding its way directly back into Walker's own pockets, either. <cite>Reg posted [p:911905240] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>LordoftheMorons posted...</cite> <quote>How does Scott Walker manage to suck so hard? https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1059480467316006912 Here's to hoping he loses today!</quote> Gross. Wouldn't surprise me if a decent chunk of that money was finding its way directly back into Walker's own pockets, either.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Crossfiyah 11/06/18 8:08:23 AM #341:	UltimaterializerX posted... LapisLazuli posted... Am I seeing correctly that Trump claimed he was the most brilliant human being who has ever lived? Hes well up there yeah. I can't imagine how dumb of a person you have to be to think Trump is smart. --- Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz" <cite>Crossfiyah posted [p:911905504] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>UltimaterializerX posted...</cite> <quote><cite>LapisLazuli posted...</cite> <quote>Am I seeing correctly that Trump claimed he was the most brilliant human being who has ever lived?</quote> Hes well up there yeah.</quote> I can't imagine how dumb of a person you have to be to think Trump is smart.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LinkMarioSamus 11/06/18 9:02:22 AM #342:	Smart at manipulating the masses maybe. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil <cite>LinkMarioSamus posted [p:911907172] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>Smart at manipulating the masses maybe.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Corrik 11/06/18 9:07:50 AM #343:	https://www-m.cnn.com/2018/11/02/opinions/what-if-women-went-on-a-sex-strike-before-the-midterms-martin/index.html Lol what --- LoL ID = imajericho XBL GT = Corrik <cite>Corrik posted [p:911907355] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>https://www-m.cnn.com/2018/11/02/opinions/what-if-women-went-on-a-sex-strike-before-the-midterms-martin/index.html Lol what</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ChaosTonyV4 11/06/18 9:14:10 AM #344:	Crossfiyah posted... I can't imagine how dumb of a person you have to be to think Trump is smart. Please dont respond to him when hes blatantly trolling. --- Phantom Dust. "I'll just wait for time to prove me right again." - Vlado <cite>ChaosTonyV4 posted [p:911907589] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>Crossfiyah posted...</cite> <quote>I can't imagine how dumb of a person you have to be to think Trump is smart. </quote> Please dont respond to him when hes blatantly trolling.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Reg 11/06/18 9:27:11 AM #345:	In other news, North Dakota has successfully and blatantly disenfranchised its Native American population. I'm a few days late to it, but yikes https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/us/politics/north-dakota-voter-id-tribe.html https://billingsgazette.com/news/government-and-politics/new-lawsuit-highlights-struggles-of-native-americans-trying-to-vote/ (space) article_12ca3f30-ba09-59a9-92a8-c9a2c1d2403c.html <cite>Reg posted [p:911908034] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>In other news, North Dakota has successfully and blatantly disenfranchised its Native American population. I'm a few days late to it, but yikes https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/us/politics/north-dakota-voter-id-tribe.html https://billingsgazette.com/news/government-and-politics/new-lawsuit-highlights-struggles-of-native-americans-trying-to-vote/ (space) article_12ca3f30-ba09-59a9-92a8-c9a2c1d2403c.html</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Corrik 11/06/18 9:31:41 AM #346:	Reg posted... In other news, North Dakota has successfully and blatantly disenfranchised its Native American population. I'm a few days late to it, but yikes https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/us/politics/north-dakota-voter-id-tribe.html https://billingsgazette.com/news/government-and-politics/new-lawsuit-highlights-struggles-of-native-americans-trying-to-vote/ (space) article_12ca3f30-ba09-59a9-92a8-c9a2c1d2403c.html Isn't this the thing people acted outraged on until they saw the Supreme Court ruled bipartisanly in support of this with many liberal justices and Kavanaugh not present? --- LoL ID = imajericho XBL GT = Corrik <cite>Corrik posted [p:911908206] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>Reg posted...</cite> <quote>In other news, North Dakota has successfully and blatantly disenfranchised its Native American population. I'm a few days late to it, but yikes https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/us/politics/north-dakota-voter-id-tribe.html https://billingsgazette.com/news/government-and-politics/new-lawsuit-highlights-struggles-of-native-americans-trying-to-vote/ (space) article_12ca3f30-ba09-59a9-92a8-c9a2c1d2403c.html</quote> Isn't this the thing people acted outraged on until they saw the Supreme Court ruled bipartisanly in support of this with many liberal justices and Kavanaugh not present?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
armitage999 11/06/18 9:34:33 AM #347:	LinkMarioSamus posted... Smart at manipulating the masses maybe. I still am amazed how well hes doing that with his brain turning into mush before our very eyes. But at one point he was legit good at manipulating even intelligent business men. He actually did have a lot of charisma back in the day. He was a master BSer, thats for sure. But nowadays? Hes not the same dude. <cite>armitage999 posted [p:911908317] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote><cite>LinkMarioSamus posted...</cite> <quote>Smart at manipulating the masses maybe.</quote> I still am amazed how well hes doing that with his brain turning into mush before our very eyes. But at one point he was legit good at manipulating even intelligent business men. He actually did have a lot of charisma back in the day. He was a master BSer, thats for sure. But nowadays? Hes not the same dude.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LinkMarioSamus 11/06/18 9:40:31 AM #348:	To be fair I'm not even sure about manipulating the masses. He's just shouting stuff from the rooftops that many people in the country already agree with. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil <cite>LinkMarioSamus posted [p:911908558] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>To be fair I'm not even sure about manipulating the masses. He's just shouting stuff from the rooftops that many people in the country already agree with.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Suprak the Stud 11/06/18 11:13:12 AM #349:	Final PREDIX: House: Dems +22ish.I know 538 has way more, but Im leaning more towards RCP for this. I usually like 538 but this is their first year doing this and I think theyre going to need a try to refine their formula as good as their other projections are. Im not sure how much all the extra stuff is going to play here. I know incumbent party in a midterm and all, but Trump has whipped up his base into a blind rage and panic and theyre going to turn out in a way I think will be unexpected in a midterm like this. I just have this feeling were going to be disappointed and come just sort of getting the house back. Senate: Republicans +4 (maybe 3). They win all the obvious ones that arent really competitive in ND, TN, TX (although I do think TN will be closer than I thought). I think they hold both of their toss ups in AZ and NV (NV in particular will suck because we should win that easy if NV is staying blue in the future). AZ could go either way with the polling as it is, but I think Sinema falls just short which is a real shame. Then I think they win two democratic toss ups in MO, IN, and FL. I think we hold FL based on polling but the other two are likely losses. Im more certain of MO than IN but I think Indiana winds up being too red. THEN I think something weird will happen in one of MT, WV or maaaaaybe MI. I just dont think theres been nearly enough polling done in WV or MT to make me feel comfortable and the polls that were done showed MT close and WV tightening. And there has been some serious tightening in that MI race for some reason. I think thats still a hold but I am way more concerned today than two weeks ago. I know that all sounds like worse case scenario and gloom and doom, but the polling hasnt given me a great reason to be optimistic and I never trust our side to show up when it matters. BUT. I am optimistic about the governors. +10 for dems is my REACH PREDIX but I feel good about it for some reason. IL MI NM and Maine (ME?) are all gimmes. I think they sweep the lean dem toss ups of FL OH IA and WI. Wisconsin and Iowa are actually a bit less certain but polling has looked great in all those states. THEN I think they win two of NV, GA, Alaska (AK?), KS, SD (and maybe NH/OK instead). NV is a very slight dem lead and the others are all republican leans. But every single one of them outside of GA has been trending democrat for some time. And while Trump has been running around stumping for republican senators, the only two governors he has really targeted with the same fervor is Gillum and Abrams. I think this works to the Democrats favor and theyll wind up picking up some really competitive seats they normally wouldnt. tl;dr Yeah governors! Eh house BOO SENATE --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." <cite>Suprak the Stud posted [p:911912766] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>Final PREDIX: House: Dems +22ish.I know 538 has way more, but Im leaning more towards RCP for this. I usually like 538 but this is their first year doing this and I think theyre going to need a try to refine their formula as good as their other projections are. Im not sure how much all the extra stuff is going to play here. I know incumbent party in a midterm and all, but Trump has whipped up his base into a blind rage and panic and theyre going to turn out in a way I think will be unexpected in a midterm like this. I just have this feeling were going to be disappointed and come just sort of getting the house back. Senate: Republicans +4 (maybe 3). They win all the obvious ones that arent really competitive in ND, TN, TX (although I do think TN will be closer than I thought). I think they hold both of their toss ups in AZ and NV (NV in particular will suck because we should win that easy if NV is staying blue in the future). AZ could go either way with the polling as it is, but I think Sinema falls just short which is a real shame. Then I think they win two democratic toss ups in MO, IN, and FL. I think we hold FL based on polling but the other two are likely losses. Im more certain of MO than IN but I think Indiana winds up being too red. THEN I think something weird will happen in one of MT, WV or maaaaaybe MI. I just dont think theres been nearly enough polling done in WV or MT to make me feel comfortable and the polls that were done showed MT close and WV tightening. And there has been some serious tightening in that MI race for some reason. I think thats still a hold but I am way more concerned today than two weeks ago. I know that all sounds like worse case scenario and gloom and doom, but the polling hasnt given me a great reason to be optimistic and I never trust our side to show up when it matters. BUT. I am optimistic about the governors. +10 for dems is my REACH PREDIX but I feel good about it for some reason. IL MI NM and Maine (ME?) are all gimmes. I think they sweep the lean dem toss ups of FL OH IA and WI. Wisconsin and Iowa are actually a bit less certain but polling has looked great in all those states. THEN I think they win two of NV, GA, Alaska (AK?), KS, SD (and maybe NH/OK instead). NV is a very slight dem lead and the others are all republican leans. But every single one of them outside of GA has been trending democrat for some time. And while Trump has been running around stumping for republican senators, the only two governors he has really targeted with the same fervor is Gillum and Abrams. I think this works to the Democrats favor and theyll wind up picking up some really competitive seats they normally wouldnt. tl;dr Yeah governors! Eh house BOO SENATE</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
WrestIeMania 11/06/18 11:17:15 AM #350:	Senate +4 House -14 Governors -5 Bonus points. 2 years from now. Trump wins Senate +5 House +23 Governors +7 Enjoy the Red Wave today. This will be my only post till tonight when we have info. Quite frankly the game today, the NY6 bowl game polls, and the SMFFFC gave my attention today. --- The GrandDaddy of them all! <cite>WrestIeMania posted [p:911912933] in Politics C... [t:77157954]...</cite> <quote>Senate +4 House -14 Governors -5 Bonus points. 2 years from now. Trump wins Senate +5 House +23 Governors +7 Enjoy the Red Wave today. This will be my only post till tonight when we have info. Quite frankly the game today, the NY6 bowl game polls, and the SMFFFC gave my attention today.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Topic List	Page List: 1 ... 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 203: We Met at Borders (+) Yeah! (+)

Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 203: We Met at Borders