Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1296

(+) Yeah! (+)

Lopen posted...

Hey Dante looks stronger than ever

Clearly DMC5 hype is the only thing that can weather Smash hype

If we assume constant Lightning from 2013, what do the Xstats say for Dante/Ganon and Dante/Vivi?
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Dante is going to choke against Ganondorf and lose, he always does this
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KanzarisKelshen posted...

Lopen posted...

Hey Dante looks stronger than ever

Clearly DMC5 hype is the only thing that can weather Smash hype

If we assume constant Lightning from 2013, what do the Xstats say for Dante/Ganon and Dante/Vivi?

The 2013 stats for Lightning are very inaccurate because she was judged through DK, who proceeded to fold to Zelda/Zard like he always does against other Nintendo characters. Falco was also in the DK match with Lightning, which further makes getting accurate numbers difficult.
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UItimaterializer posted...

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

The more this contest goes on, the more it looks like Square is just stagnant while Nintendo has boosted and other properties have dropped.

Its very possible Nintendo is stagnant while everyone else just dropped due to these low vote totals.

Well, that's a pessimistic way of looking at it.

If we measure contest strength as popularity relative to others in the field, it's impossible for anyone to drop without others boosting. Yay!
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I mean the net result is the same regardless of how you look at it
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That's not what Kanzaris wanted. Let's calibrate Dante and Ganondorf assuming constant Lightning and Chun Li with lol x-stats!

Dante (Big Boss) (2013c) VS Lightning (2013c)

Dante has a strength of 34.72.
Lightning has a strength of 23.02.

Dante wins with 66.85% of the vote!
A win of 18,184 with 53,960 total votes cast.

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Ganondorf (Commander Shepard) (2013c) VS Chun Li (2013c)

Ganondorf has a strength of 31.76.
Chun Li has a strength of 24.75.

Ganondorf wins with 61.04% of the vote!
A win of 11,910 with 53,960 total votes cast.

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Dante (Big Boss) (2013c) VS Ganondorf (Commander Shepard) (2013c)

Dante has a strength of 34.72.
Ganondorf has a strength of 31.76.

Dante wins with 54.26% of the vote!
A win of 4,600 with 53,960 total votes cast.

Realistically though, yeah who really knows where Lightning is. I'm just saying I feel like Lightning beats Chun Li. That's just the "obvious" result to me. Maybe not in a stomp but on this site I feel like Lightning has to be stronger, if just a bit. Dante looking good to walk over Ganondorf I think. If you wanna play the choke card Vivi/DK is the one to play it against. He's never really lost matches where he's seemed heavily favored.
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Uh, Lightning beating Chun Li would definitely be surprising.
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Mac Arrowny posted...

Uh, Lightning beating Chun Li would definitely be surprising.

would it be
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Spyro beating Lightning after Crash beat Cecil seems like a probable result to me.
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2010 lightning beating chun wouldn't be a surprise

2013 lightning doing so, on the other hand

This is definitely interesting to think about. I think Lightning does beat Chun but it's close - which intuitively favors Dante, but he's never come through when it counted so it'd be a big, big deal if he defeated Ganondorf. Can you imagine if DK beat Vivi though? A Dante/DK final would be the craziest shit.
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Well Lightning's probably stronger than Cecil and Crash is probably stronger than Spyro so no I don't think that Spyro beats Lightning at all.
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I'd rank Lightning at around the same strength as Chun-Li.

Not looking good for Ganondorf though...
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Lopen posted...

Well Lightning's probably stronger than Cecil

ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

I know you want to think highly of Lightning but I kinda don't
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I think Chun-Li beats Lightning but not by much. Lightning/Cecil I'd have to think about. Cecil losing to Crash by 55% is hard to get over.
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Lopen posted...

Well Lightning's probably stronger than Cecil and Crash is probably stronger than Spyro so no I don't think that Spyro beats Lightning at all.

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaI don't know about that one chief
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I think Lightning blowing out garbage is more impressive than anything Cecil's done, honestly.

Keep in mind when I say "Lightning beating Chun Li feels intuitive to me" I'm closer to the charmander putting them at about the same strength than saying Lightning is a lot stronger, though. Like I'm definitely not thinking there's plausibly a big enough gap between them to feel Dante isn't a pretty big favorite over Ganondorf beyond any reason other than superstition about Dante choking in any case.
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Lopen posted...

I think Lightning blowing out garbage is more impressive than anything Cecil's done, honestly.

well yeah because she's actually won a match

not even Cecil could blow it against Chloe

maybe
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but yeah I think the match is close enough that Dante/Ganondorf is potentially in the air because Lightning doesn't even need to beat Chun-Li for that to happen

If Dante = Ganondorf, Chun-Li beats Lightning with 57.74%
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I'm kinda having trouble seeing Cecil get 74% against anything that isn't Draven. Like I feel like if you can get 74% against anything with a following of any sort you're a low midcarder at worst.
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@charmander6000

After one full round of matches so far, are you going to start doing stats for highest/lowest voted matches, largest/smallest final vote leads, largest/smallest final vote percentage difference, etc?

I'd also suggest doing stats for highest/lowest voted matches based on the raw vote totals (without the registered user bonus).
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well the good news is that there's room for Lightning to lose to Spyro and still have Dante beat Ganondorf
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/949-east-division-round-1-ryo-hazuki-vs-guybrush-threepwood

You can have a following and still be really, really weak.
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wow TRE read my mind because I was trying to remember how much Ryo got in that match
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Quick numbers:

In 2013, Dante gets 65% on Spyro
In 2013, Ganon gets 66% on Spyro

Assuming that this match ends 60-40, Ganon gets 65% on Spyro
Assuming that this match ends 59-41, Ganon gets 64% on Spyro
Assuming that this match ends 58-42, Ganon gets 63% on Spyro

The worse Chun-Li punishes Ganon overnight, the worse he's going to look. She's outright winning in most European countries so I don't think pushing to 42% is out of the question.
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To be fair Ryo Hazuki didn't actually have the worst year that year. He got 40% on Lara Croft and finished in the top half of the x-stats!

I guess I give Chloe a bit more credit than Dirk the Daring or Guybrush and would say neither of those quite pass the bar of having "a following of any sort" but yeah, point taken, sorta.
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well I think in addition to only having a small following there's probably a decent chunk of people who've played Life is Strange who hate Chloe too

like me
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Going to cross-post this from the Crew topic because I think it's worth mentioning to the people who don't check that topic:

KamikazePotato posted...

Side note: I arbitrarily set Vivi equal to Squall in the 2013 stats because I figured his match against Squall was very bandwagon-influenced but didn't want to set him lower when he clearly won. This results in:

Vivi (2013c) has a strength of 37.98 against Base Link.
Aya Brea (2013c) has a strength of 18.76 against Base Link.
Vivi75.30%40,633
Aya Brea24.70%13,327
Vivi wins with 75.30% of the vote!

Vivi (2013c) has a strength of 37.98 against Base Link.
Yu Narukami (2013c) has a strength of 19.58 against Base Link.
Vivi74.22%40,051
Yu Narukami25.78%13,909
Vivi wins with 74.22% of the vote!

Seems like I made a pretty good guess so far! Assuming Vivi is as legit as he's looking, he's going to clean sweep this division.

Fodder matches are unreliable, but I think two fodder matches in a row that line up perfectly is a trend.
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Leon Kennedy vs. Jill Valentine... who wins that match?

I love these results. Suddenly everything is up in the air. I don't like the idea of DK/Vivi part three, though.... Vivi had better win again, though, 'cause my bracket depends on it. I sure hope Knuckles does great against Zero to ensure FFIX hasn't lost much. But still, the thought of DK winning the division is hilarious.

Dante has 66% while my DK/Lightning's 2013 estimated result is a 58/42 match. Dante also is beating Sonic's score against Lightning. But more than likely Lightning has weakened (and I feel that Noctis' bombing is connected to that). I mean, Lightning is expected to get.... 57.85% on Cuphead? Oh, yeah, and that means Cuphead is expected to get...69.39% on Chloe! #CupheadIsAPowerhouse

KamikazePotato posted...

Fodder matches are unreliable, but I think two fodder matches in a row that line up perfectly is a trend.

I sure hope it's a true trend. Remember when Chrono Trigger got two huge blowouts against fodder and people were still skeptical about its strength? And then the next round, CT got a percentage against FFX consistent with its percentage on R&C and DQ8!
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Wait what the fuck
Even as a big supporter of SMASH BOOST I never expected this result, not even close
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DK blows past 56% and shows no signs of slowing down yet

this really is the year for SC2K2 characters
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Tidus > Leon x-stat value dream lives on
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LeonhartFour posted...

DK blows past 56% and shows no signs of slowing down yet

this really is the year for SC2K2 characters

Oh, I know who should have been in the field this year. Tina fucking Armstrong.

Since GFNW is back, we should have paid tribute to a true original.
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this could've been the glorious return of Strider
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Smash adding so much strength to characters really is the worst.

until it helps Snake win the contest
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Cut!

By Chun-Li.
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

Ganon, if you want to choke away this division while on post-BotW hype, Smash fever, and every other intangible you could have, my Vivi > Ganon Division 1 bracket really doesn't mind

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NowItsAngeTime posted...

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Ganon, if you want to choke away this division while on post-BotW hype, Smash fever, and every other intangible you could have, my Vivi > Ganon Division 1 bracket really doesn't mind

inb4 Dante > Ganon and DK > Vivi

TWO CUTS BY CHUN-LI

DON'T CALL lT A COMEBACK
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handsomeboy2012 posted...

NowItsAngeTime posted...

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Ganon, if you want to choke away this division while on post-BotW hype, Smash fever, and every other intangible you could have, my Vivi > Ganon Division 1 bracket really doesn't mind

inb4 Dante > Ganon and DK > Vivi

Well, DK > Dante in the Division Finals would pretty much fuck everyone up, so I'd be no worse.
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All right Donkey Kong vs. Ganondorf who ya got
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I think people are going a little DKrazy here, like this result is shocking but there's only so strong DK can be with 57% against Tidus, and I say that as someone with healthy respect for Tidus. I think most of this is Leon dropping, unfortunately.
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1307-north-division-round-1-tidus-vs-ganondorf

I'm just sayin man.
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Ganon, if you want to choke away this division while on post-BotW hype, Smash fever, and every other intangible you could have, my Vivi > Ganon Division 1 bracket really doesn't mind
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and when you thought Dragonborn couldn't look any worse
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so apparently i have Link>Vivi then, Vivi>Zero and Mega Man>Vivi. going to be interesting to see how that plays out.
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I really doubt that Lightning could beat Spyro, let alone Chun-Li. She and her game are just too widely hated.

Dang, I wake up to find that not only Chun-Li is stalling, but even making cuts in the wee hours of the morning? You go Chun! ^^
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im317 posted...

so apparently i have Link>Vivi then, Vivi>Zero and Mega Man>Vivi. going to be interesting to see how that plays out.

I have this exact setup as well. I'm still confident in Vivi winning the division, not so sure that some of my other division winners will get there though.
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So I woke up. I was here yesterday at the start of the matches.
Ganon fell even further! And DK is winning by even more!
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