Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1307

(+) Yeah! (+)

Damn! Didn't noticed that! I didn't scored any points and I am still hanging on! Was Kirby the heavy favorite to win then?
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Almost nobody near the top had Alucard winning so even if you get 0, you only fall behind by 8 points compared to the rest of the field.
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Dang. I should have realized that Magus couldn't be far above guys like Simon Belmont. At least my 59% prediction isn't killer high... most everyone predicted at least 57% for Auron.

Don't be fooled by Bowser beating Kirby. I still think it's Luigi > Bowser > Yoshi.
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Oh yeah. I think 1 Guru had Alucard actually!
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So... Shovel Knight > Garrus? That match would have been a sight to see.
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Safer_777 posted...

100% in my country for Geralt and Aerith! Yeah I am the only who voted of course.

lol
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

14 people fell off the Top 50. Cb7799, DoctorJimmy133, BradyFumbled, scaryice, Advokaiser, pronouncemyname, ZenOfThunder, GoldSlime35, VegetarianKefka, AxemRedRanger, SamusOverCloud, VeryInsane, LittleFinger22 and LusterSoldier did not have Alucard and Bowser winning yesterday.

It was surely fun while it lasted.
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Auron's steadily declining...
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18th and aside from dropping Squall today I think I'm basically cookie or close to it rest of the way. So I guess theres an outside shot of top 50 final finish?

It took me long enough to realize, but... apparently TIfa's not the only FF7 character that hasn't dropped since 2006. It seems Aeris hasn't dropped one bit, either, since then. GO AERIS! (Aeris >>> Tifa)

Geralt just cut into Auron's votes twice. Yikes. I wouldn't be surprised if Auron is under 52% by the time this is over.
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Reposting the LeonStats from the Crew Topic

Division 5

Zelda 50.00%
Aerith Gainsborough 37.00%
Squall Leonhart 36.68%
Fox McCloud 35.00%
Jill Valentine 32.13%
Waluigi 31.50%
Captain Toad 29.61%
The Boss 29.30%
Shovel Knight 28.08%
Garrus Vakarian 26.39%
Ramza Beoulve 26.06%
Metal Sonic 25.48%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze 24.67%
D. Va 19.94%
Aloy 18.77%
Hat Kid 17.69%

Division 6

Auron 50.00%
Geralt 46.00%
Bayonetta 45.19%
Vincent Valentine 44.20%
Simon Belmont 43.99%
Pac-Man 43.32%
Ryu Hayabusa 43.30%
Sub-Zero 43.29%
Magus 42.53%
Rosalina 40.45%
Lucina 34.56%
Shulk 32.41%
Riku 32.17%
Claire Redfield 29.21%
Joker/Ren Amamiya 27.12%
Sans 24.80%
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So are we starting 1 match per day Monday evening?

LeonhartFour posted...

Man, those Division 5 stats make it look like either Aerith's overperforming here or Squall really underperformed last round.

Hmm

Aeris (2013c) has a strength of 31.01 against Base Link.
Ramza (2013c) has a strength of 23.40 against Base Link.
Aeris62.27%33,601
Ramza37.73%20,359
Aeris wins with 62.27% of the vote!

Current Ramza vs. Aeris: about 35%
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Geralt might have a bit of a bandwagon? His run has been great.
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creativename posted...

So are we starting 1 match per day Monday evening?

No, that's when the 6 day Thanksgiving break starts. Tomorrow night, we start the final 2 matches before the break begins.
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Janus5k posted...

Geralt might have a bit of a bandwagon? His run has been great.

That's what I'm thinking

We'll have to wait and see
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Lopen posted...

creativename posted...

2K4 Mario does not get 59.79% in 2K4 Samus, it just doesnt happen. He was too weak. Not a good year for him.

You can't be certain of that though. You are making a lot of assumptions.

- Samus could not have boosted in 2005 as well
- SFF ability is inherently tied to contest strength

There is evidence to support both of these things are wrong.

creativename posted...

Thats not an irrelevant hypothetical - that is literally your claim. Just worded in a more pragmatic manner, to show how totally out there your claim is.

You're the one claiming Samus vs Mario in 2004 is "quite fuzzy." What does that mean exactly? I said they probably go like 54-46 or 55-45 and you didn't accept it, so to me that implies "quite fuzzy" is code for "I don't want to admit I was wrong about the matchup and am going to claim Samus squeaks out a win in 2004 and the Mario boost is why it wasn't competitive in 2005"

So I mean to humor that, that requires a bigger shift in 2005 between the parts than the idea that 2005 Mario gets like 65% on 2004 Samus. You realize that right?

There is evidence to support both of these things are wrong.

Which is...? I already stated exactly why I think the notion that increasing your strength relative to another character in one year wouldnt increase your SFF ability is just flat our silly.

I also think the notion 2K5 Mario doubles 2K4 Samus is absurd. Which again is exactly what your Samus boosted like Mario claim is - all boosted claims are implicitly saying that this entrant would do better in a time travel hypothetical against previous opponents. Whether its a boost across rounds, or years, or just time of day. The time travel hypothetical is implied with the boosting hypothesis.

You call these assumptions, I call these obvious safe bets.

You're the one claiming Samus vs Mario in 2004 is "quite fuzzy." What does that mean exactly? I said they probably go like 54-46 or 55-45 and you didn't accept it, so to me that implies "quite fuzzy" is code for "I don't want to admit I was wrong about the matchup and am going to claim Samus squeaks out a win in 2004 and the Mario boost is why it wasn't competitive in 2005"

Fascinating psycho-analysis :) Or maybe I just dont find your claims credible.

Fuzzy means fuzzy. I didnt reject he might have got 54% on her in 2K4, I rejected that he wouldve got 59.79% on her. I could see him losing cleanly in 2K4, or getting 54%. I would not try to ascribe probabilities.

So I mean to humor that, that requires a bigger shift in 2005 between the parts than the idea that 2005 Mario gets like 65% on 2004 Samus. You realize that right?

What...?

KamikazePotato posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

Man, those Division 5 stats make it look like either Aerith's overperforming here or Squall really underperformed last round.

Hmm

Aeris (2013c) has a strength of 31.01 against Base Link.
Ramza (2013c) has a strength of 23.40 against Base Link.
Aeris62.27%33,601
Ramza37.73%20,359
Aeris wins with 62.27% of the vote!

Current Ramza vs. Aeris: about 35%

I'd think Ramza should possibly be slightly stronger now than 2013 with Dissidia and him FFRK bringing more exposure to him through him being one of the best characters for a long stretch?

Wow, Geralt is representing his 8pack really well. It looks like he *might* be right around the Dante level... which puts Bayonetta there too!
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KamikazePotato posted...

Vincent Valentine 44.20%
Pac-Man 43.32%

Wow Vincent barely passes the Pac-Man test
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LusterSoldier posted...

creativename posted...

So are we starting 1 match per day Monday evening?

No, that's when the 6 day Thanksgiving break starts. Tomorrow night, we start the final 2 matches before the break begins.

Ah OK thanks.

So it starts again the evening of Monday the 26th? Or the day before?

Sans looks like regular middling jrpg character fodder instead of hilariously terrible turbofodder. Never thought that would happen given how things started.

There is still time for Auron to stink it up in the later rounds though.

creativename posted...

So it starts again the evening of Monday the 26th?

Correct, the contest will start up again at 7:00 PM on November 26th beginning with Poll 7358. We will still be doing 2 matches per day when the contest starts up after the break ends.
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Yeah Sans might beat the likes of Hat Kid.

Rosalina is currently projected to get around 45% on Sub-Zero. Is she really that strong?
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

14 people fell off the Top 50. Cb7799, DoctorJimmy133, BradyFumbled, scaryice, Advokaiser, pronouncemyname, ZenOfThunder, GoldSlime35, VegetarianKefka, AxemRedRanger, SamusOverCloud, VeryInsane, LittleFinger22 and LusterSoldier did not have Alucard and Bowser winning yesterday.

29 people got one wrong and went up in rank. TheBiggerWiggle, SpikeDragon, Captain_Sorzo, XIII_rocks, art_of_the_kill, KeepinItFresh, pirate109, iGenesis, Outer_space, Zylothewolf, Mr_Monkford, Cody11533, TeamRocketElite, Xeybozn, Vegink, Lukejalil, Underleveled, Gyarados, Fart, TylerF, Nanis23, gitanil, Seanchan, Osfan, PreseaCombatir, PSI_NESS, pyresword, Camden and psaltery only got 8 points but they all improved their position on the leaderboard.

7 people didn't get any points but survived. Former first place Steevo_234, former third place haloiscoolisbak, ALAKA, hylianknight3, foxhead84, Safer_777 and davidponte had enough points that taking the day off was not enough to knock them from the leaderboard.

No one on the Top 50 scored full points.

Brandalia was the highest ranked person to score full points. They went from around 93rd to 17th place!

Man, Alucard and Bowser double-teamed to fuck everyone up.

I wonder if getting both right today will be enough to get me back on the leaderboard.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

Rosalina is currently projected to get around 45% on Sub-Zero. Is she really that strong?

No, Geralt is simply not the kinda character who can do blowouts.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

Rosalina is currently projected to get around 45% on Sub-Zero. Is she really that strong?

Probably not, Geralt may have gotten a bandwagon effect.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Wow, Geralt is representing his 8pack really well. It looks like he *might* be right around the Dante level... which puts Bayonetta there too!

Careful, KP has speculated the possibility that Geralt's natural strength might have increased due to the bandwagon factor. Winning 2 close matches by taking the lead overnight (plus the match where Rosalina put a scare into Geralt very early in the match) might have caused some of the site users to put their support behind Geralt.
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Geralt only got 56% on Rosalina. That's a bit more of a problem than not being able to do blowouts if he caps off there.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

Geralt only got 56% on Rosalina. That's a bit more of a problem than not being able to do blowouts if he caps off there.

I mean there's simply a cap of how high a Western RPG character can go against a Nintendo Smash character.
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Still on the leaderboard despite going 0/2 yesterday and being eliminated from the guru.

Today is definitely the last day I'll be on it for the rest of the contest, though.
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56% is pretty severe cap.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

56% is pretty severe cap.

This site doesn't like WRPGs. You're never going to get 2/3 of the site voting for a WRPG character unless it's against something they don't care about as well.
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Hmm. Newer characters with less universal awareness not being able to do blowouts does make sense.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Geralt only got 56% on Rosalina. That's a bit more of a problem than not being able to do blowouts if he caps off there.

It may be less of a blowout thing, and more of a pseudo-cap thing.

Where you imagine a subset of the voter base whod be so apathetic to a newer character due to lack of awareness, theyd prefer just about any more well known character. It could distort things a bit.

Sort of a reverse Pac-Man thing.

Functionally it would be like the Master Chief effect - but different in mechanism. Because it wouldnt be anti-votes to a character everybody knows and many have strong feelings on, but a character than some love and others dont know much about him and dont care.

A bandwagon effect do to increasing familiarity is also possible there, rather than simply a normal L-Block style bandwagon of plucky underdog is winning!

Not liking WRPG characters effects both ends on their strength. They don't go as high when they win and lose worse when they lose. If the site didn't like Geralt he wouldn't be at 44% on Auron right now.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

Not liking WRPG characters effects both ends on their strength. They don't go as high when they win and lose worse when they lose. If the site didn't like Geralt he wouldn't be at 44% on Auron right now.

This is true, but I think Geralt might have more of a dedicated fanbase thing since hes not s universally known older character.

Witcher 3 is known by all, and should have a good play rate here, but not like a 90s or early 2000s classic.

And maybe Rosalina is a bit better than originally thought (or anticipated). She's in Mario Kart, Smash, and - perhaps most importantly - is quite liked by the Mario fanbase.
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I think the bigger red flag about Geralt is Simon and Bayo being so close. Bayonetta would beat him easily in a 1vs1 imo.
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Feeling like Snake should be pretty safe against Zelda at this point, even though it will likely be a close match. Even if MGS has otherwise gone downhill, I can't help but feel he'll largely be immune to the trend through a combination of nostalgia and not being associated with the controversial MGSV. On top of that, he probably has the biggest Smash hype boost of anyone not new to Ultimate. People were ecstatic at the reveal that he was coming back.
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So how strong do we think Zelda is after tonight? From my rough estimates, I suspect she'll end up somewhere around 60%ish or perhaps a bit below after the Europe vote ends.

Assuming Aeris and Amaterasu haven't changed strengths significantly, this seems on par with Sephiroth. Probably not enough to beat Snake but could challenge Sonic?
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creativename posted...

So I mean to humor that, that requires a bigger shift in 2005 between the parts than the idea that 2005 Mario gets like 65% on 2004 Samus. You realize that right?

What...?

Put it this way

Known values

Mario 2k5 = A bit over 43
Mario 2k4 = A bit over 37
Samus Raw in 2k5 = A bit over 34.
Samus Raw in 2k4 in a hypothetical match with Mario needed to get 60-40'd by 2k4 Mario = About 30

For 2k5 Mario to 65-35 2k4 Samus, Samus Raw vs Mario would need to be about 4 lower than it was in 2005

For 2k4 Samus to beat 2k4 Mario, Samus Raw vs Mario would need to be about 4 higher than it was in 2k5.

Basically what I'm saying is the assumption that 2k5 Mario 65-35s 2004 Samus is about the same number of stat fiddling as having Samus flip the script. Further I think because all the rest of Nintendo boosted in 2k5 and Samus outdid expectations vs Frog in 05, it makes more sense that Samus boosted in 2k5 than stayed static. Like Frog has always been a red flag in 2k5. Master Chief 2k5 60-40s 2k5 Frog, but Master Chief 2k5 is only 48-52 vs 2k4 Frog who = 2k4 Chief. Heavily implies Frog wasn't properly adjusted, which implies Samus wasn't. Especially since 2k4 Crono = 2k5 Crono.

Really the easy thing to is take 2k4 Mario value vs 2k5 Raw Samus which projects to Mario with 54-46 or so. Saying Samus wins in 04 is more of a leap than saying Mario 60-40s in 04, imo. You saying I lack credibility doesn't really change that.
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Zelda's next match will begin 24 hours after GameFAQs sees Link reemerge and slaughter his opposition again, which means the fanbase can kinda leave her alone (I do think she's gotten at least some arbitrary boost from Link being gone). If Snake struggles to win despite that, then I think it will be due to a combination of him losing strength AND her having legit N9 crushing power. And I can't even envision him losing; that would be the most shocking result of the contest for me.
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I'd agree that Geralt's benefiting from a bandwagon effect, like SotC in the GotD contest.
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squexa posted...

So how strong do we think Zelda is after tonight? From my rough estimates, I suspect she'll end up somewhere around 60%ish or perhaps a bit below after the Europe vote ends.

Zelda probably finishes around 61% by the end of this match. That would only be around a 4% improvement over their 2006 match. If Aerith's strength remains the same as it was in 2006, this means that Zelda got a much smaller boost than we originally thought. This might just be enough to threaten someone like Sonic or Sephiroth, but would put her out of reach of Snake unless he's collapsed big time.
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For what it is worth, Zelda is projected to get 64.44% on Fox right now. Snake got 67.03% in 2010.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3818-gear-division-round-2-solid-snake-vs-fox-mccloud

I'm not sure Zelda will win but I think she'll definitely give Snake a scare.
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Yeah, I'm more worried about Snake falling off, since his entire supporting cast is now either fodder or just barely above. He's slowly morphing into Kirby at this point, where he's increasingly drawing from Smash than his own series.
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I don't know if I buy Zelda gaining strength due to Link not being there. I think she's just stronger. We'll have to see I guess.
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Also if you want my opinion on what the proper adjustment for 2k5 Samus was it would be around where 2k6 Samus is. That makes Frog line up a lot better (only a slight drop, which is fine some slight overperformance due to pic vs Solid **** makes sense) and doesn't give Samus a super significant boost in 2k6 when Mario and the rest of Nintendo got theirs in 2k5.

2k6 Samus is significantly stronger than 2k4 Samus so yeah, stands to reason 2k5 Samus would be too if you believe that.
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