Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 88888888888888888888888~

(+) Yeah! (+)

tennisboy213 posted...

If Mewtwo = Squall, what does Samus get on Tifa?

Zelda would get 56.23% on Tifa

depends on what you think of Samus relative to Snake and Zelda
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TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Sonic's best chance would've probably been in 2003

Hard to argue Sonic doesn't win in 2003 when Shadow got 45% that year. I know the Sonic proxy vote theory had been thrown around but I'm sure 5% of voters weren't doing that.
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Sonic would've had a chance in 2002, probably. I think the Noble Nine outside of Link were pretty much all bunched together that year.

Much like this year, perhaps.
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Sonic 02 did come a few hundred votes from beating Samus. I feel like people forget that one too often because she wrecked him in 04.
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34 votes, to be precise.
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Wow 34 even I forget that one.
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Lopen's Unofficial Analysis x2

Tifa vs Samus
If you could take Tifa/Samus 06 at face value, I'd take Tifa to upset here because the upset vote is real. Plucky underdogs! Momentum! Because it's not ZSS here, however, Samus should win. Not by a lot because no blowouts allowed, but the match won't be close enough to get anyone genuinely excited for an upset either.

Samus with 52.04%

Sephiroth vs Mario
Sephiroth is a plucky underdog! Momentum! A noble niner who has been ousted from the noble nine! Mario stands NO CHANCE. (I'm only half joking with that) (And seriously though FFVII has looked completely fine this contest and I don't think Seph loses when he's made a career out of massacring Mario)

Sephiroth with 55.55%
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LeonhartFour posted...

Well, what has Samus done to keep her propped up other than a distant promise that Metroid Prime 4 might happen someday?

The answer for this question now and ten years ago is the same!

Samus is legit, and more than just character design. remember Super Metroid nearly beating our game of the decade?
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Metroid prime 4 is at the TGAs this year so believe
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wont be able to post the write ups before the match sry

spoilers everyone picked mario
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welp
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success
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LeonhartFour posted...

Well, what has Samus done to keep her propped up other than a distant promise that Metroid Prime 4 might happen someday?

Samus Returns was good!
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I dont trust either of these results early
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Yeah but Seph is not going from 38% to 50% this isn't fucking Phoenix Wright.

This is Zelda/Squall Part 2, jesus
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wow, this is a killing. Seph will get closer for sure but unless the first 5 are unprecedently wrong were looking at the obvious #2 character.
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Sephy getting his teeth kicked in right now.

Feeling pretty good about my Mario > Cloud
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transcience posted...

I dont trust either of these results early

Ok how about now
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I'm starting to wonder if he can beat Link tbh.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

I'm starting to wonder if he can beat Link tbh.

No way in hell.
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yowza
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next

lets talk Tifa vs. Sephiroth
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transcience posted...

next

lets talk Tifa vs. Sephiroth

There's gotta be some sort of Hierarchy there, right? Even if Tifa is indirectly stronger (very debatable), it's Sephiroth vs. Someone Who Isn't Cloud.
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let's talk alucard vs. sephiroth
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lets talk 2003 seph/mario and 2018 seph/mario

cause its the same percentage
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For comparison:

Mario (2013c) has a strength of 47.13 against Base Link.
Sephiroth (2013c) has a strength of 38.89 against Base Link.
Mario wins with 58.74% of the vote!

Mega Man X (2013c) has a strength of 37.97 against Base Link.
Samus (2013c) has a strength of 45.81 against Base Link.
Samus wins with 58.56% of the vote!

(not using 2013 Tifa because her value is weird)
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Didn't Tifa have an actual direct match with Samus (and a tetris piece) in 2013?
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Yeah, and she ended up like #7 overall in the stats. 2013 Tifa was on this weird level that she's clearly not on in 2018 (or any other contest).
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transcience posted...

next

lets talk Tifa vs. Sephiroth

Nothing much to talk about there, sadly. We've already seen Tifa vs. Sephiroth three times before. She holds up better to SFF than Vincent does, but she's still no threat to win.

Lopen posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Sonic's best chance would've probably been in 2003

Hard to argue Sonic doesn't win in 2003 when Shadow got 45% that year. I know the Sonic proxy vote theory had been thrown around but I'm sure 5% of voters weren't doing that.

Oh yeah, good point. I completely blocked out how Shadow actually looked good in his debut, leading to it taking all the way until 2005 for Tidus to put up a result that was considered "bad". Then again, whenever I'm not actually looking at one of their pages, I also block out the fact that Tidus-Shadow was a 2004 match won by Tidus; I keep thinking that it was a match that Shadow won in 2003 in between his win over Wario and his loss to Mario! (Reality of course being that Mario-Shadow was a Round 2 match... when I stop to think about it, that makes more sense, but I do correctly remember Shadow beating Wario before losing to Mario and so my mind has to push the Mario match to Round 3 to reconcile it with the persistent belief that Shadow beat Tidus. That's how alien the idea of Tidus winning a close match is to me.)
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KP can you see what Seph got on Tifa in 2010, and what Samus = Mario puts them at here?

Just curious.
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Sephiroth got 56.16% on Tifa in 2010.

Samus=Mario means Tifa beats Sephiroth with 54%. Sephiroth is going to go up a lot though, and there's no guarantee Tifa does (her early vote is surprisingly good for FF7).
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its been 40 minutes and were still looking at 61%. he might get to 50, maybe 41 but not much more.

Samus is doing well here too but compared to Mario its nothing.
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Legends Bracket: Round 1 Mario vs. Sephiroth

Monikas Analysis

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1363
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2130

Going by this trend, this should now be a close match!

Last decade, it was clear that Sephiroth was the stronger of these two on GameFAQs. Since 2010 though, weve seen the decline of FF7. Snake was able to beat Sephiroth that year, and other FF7 characters didnt look as good as they did in their glory days. Fast forward to 2018, and the only ones that still seem to be worth much are Cloud, Seph, and Tifa. Tifa seems fine because she was never at that Noble Nine level, but Cloud has definitely lost a step after looking at his match with Alucard. Sure, Alucard is stronger now, but the Cloud of old would have (and did) won that match with more than 60%.

Sephiroth did have a very close match with Kirby in the previous character battle, which seems troubling for him here. But then you have to remember that Mario lost to Vivi in that same contest. Yes there are reasons that happened but still, for all the talk of Seph not looking impressive, Mario had a very poor run in 2013.

He does have a chance at redemption here though. I cant help but think that Cloud and Seph should be around the same strength, and Alucard making Cloud look bad makes me think Sephiroth rocking his division speaks less about his strength and more about his weak division. Mario should be pretty darn strong this year, as when Nintendo is in style, the man in red is also in style. Plus, hes also coming off the very well received Mario Odyssey, which helped Bowser do pretty well on Crono and Peach get 44% on Alucard (whos worth 40% on Cloud dont forget).

Contest history may side with Sephy here, but the intangibles in this match have swung towards Mario.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Did you know I'm on Twitter? My username is lilmonix3.

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Mario 56%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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transiences Analysis

Oh man, here we go. Sephiroth has always looked his best against the plumber. His two greatest contest accomplishments, outside of a Pokemon glitch, have been dismantling Mario. I remember saying in 2005 how Mario spent two months owning the main bracket and Sephiroth was treating him like the Midgar Zolom. ExTha parrots this line every contest because he's such a Sephiroth weirdo (and really just a weirdo in general) so it always sticks with me.

Well, the tables are flipped here. This time Sephiroth spent a month going through the main bracket for a chance to face Mario. And...it's been a fairly tame run. Amaterasu held him down pretty well at first before he recovered. Captain Falcon kept him below a doubling. He had a good number against Ryu, but only because expectations were so low.

And yet... doesn't it feel like all these dudes get kinda close for the first few minutes only for Seph and Cloud to just run wild over them? Alucard was tied early with Cloud and still couldn't break 40%. Sephiroth could be down 60-40 to Mario after 5 minutes and I wouldn't feel comfortable. You just never know with Sephiroth.

All that said, it's hard to look at what Zelda is doing to Snake and think that Mario doesn't have a stacked deck against Seph. Mario Odyssey, Smash Bros. out in like 4 or something days, the entire site being cuckoo for Nintendo. Does Mario benefit from that? Probably. Sephiroth is going to get a huge boost when they show him for the first time in the FF7 remake, but that time is not yet. Seph's always had Mario's number and this is Mario's best shot to try to even the score.

transience's prediction: Mario with 53.13%

Leonharts Analysis

This is our first Noble Nine vs. Noble Nine matchup, and Im really curious to see how it goes after what weve seen so far. People seem to want the Noble Nine to lose, so who do they side with here? Sephiroth is the only one who had to endure the main bracket first, which makes him stand out compared to all the others. Does it matter? Its hard to say. It would be pretty hilarious to see Mario getting anti-voted in favor of Sephiroth, so I kinda hope it happens just for that!

That being said, Mario probably wins, but Ive been skeptical of him for a long time. However, hes got Odyssey in his corner, and Mario characters in general have looked pretty solid so far. Usually, Mario goes as Nintendo goes on this site, and Nintendo is riding high once again.

Leonharts Vote: Sephiroth

Leonharts Prediction: Mario with 52.01%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Remember back in 2005, when Mario looked like a damn monster coming off his main bracket win? Dude was juiced the hell up going into the ToC that year. And then Sephiroth was like lol nope and then skewered him? Well, things have changed since then, and Mario has a very real shot at getting some revenge 13 years in the making.

First 10 minutes of each match aside, I think Sephiroth has actually looked pretty good this year. 60% on Ryu is no joke, and while hes definitely not at 2005-era Clinkeroth levels anymore, he definitely looks a lot better than he did when he was losing to Mewtwo. So where is Mario at these days? Thats a good question. Last we saw him, he lost to Vivi, but honestly, 2013 was such a mess its real hard to even take anything we saw there into account. Nintendo has been on an upswing this year, and Mario has a lot of reasons to look good.

This should end up being a real close one. I think one of Sephiroths biggest problems is that hes going to fall into such a big (relative to our middling vote totals) early on, it may be tough for him to recover overnight. I wouldnt be shocked to see this match follow the MM/Pikachu trends, where Mario is in Pikachus place.

This was a lot of writing to basically say nothing - and thats mostly because I dont have a good read on this match, and even as I type up this writeup, Im not sure who to pick. My gut when I created my bracket was Mario, and even though Sephiroth has looked better than my pre-contest expectations, Im going to stick with Mario here. But this could really go either way.

Kleenexs Prediction: Mario with 50%

Guests Analysis - ctesjbuvf

This is possibly the match I've been most excited to see the whole contest. Mario have been completely shut down by Sephiroth several times in the early contest days. He got killed by him in 2003 first, then again in 2005 despite having dominated the main bracket, failed to outlast him in 2006 and lost to him twice in 2007 as well. Mario has then been fed to many times Link since, which is a shame, because I feel
like from 2010 onwards, Mario could've made a match of it. I know people like to trash talk Mario for his loss to Vivi 5 years ago, but I don't think it's bad. It was close despite Vivi being heavily rallied and Ganondorf being about as bad a third entrant for Mario as it gets. Only Samus and Zelda might be worse for Mario to still be considered the favorite.

I've been a Mario defender for many years. He's been talked about as a possible second strongest character for many years now, but has never had the chance to prove it due to bracket placement. Now, finally being on the other side of the bracket than Link, he finally gets his chance. Sephiroth didn't look bad in the main bracket, but it wasn't on the level of the Clinkeroth days and not something I don't think Mario could manage. Mario characters have generally looked pretty strong and Mario has always been a big step ahead of them. I've also been a very big Sephiroth defender, so while I wouldn't mind him winning, I'm thinking it's time for Mario to get revenge on Sephiroth after so many losses, and besides, I wouldn't be able to pick against Mario here no matter what.

Mario - 54.15%
Sephiroth 45.85%

Crew Consensus: Mario pounds Seph into the ground.
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i'm done listening to the rest of you

from now on i'm listening to just monika

just monika

just monika

just monika

just monika
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hey where's everyone calling crew curse
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looks like ff7 really does suck, cronos got this
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let's make this simple

what does peach get on bowser for crono = cloud
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This feels good, feels right. This contest has redeemed 2013. Good call, fellas!

heroic mario indeed
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since today is a total dud, does anyone want to try to rank 2-11 after round 1? the other 5 guys don't really compete with these guys.

Cloud
Crono
Mario
Mega Man
Pikachu
Samus
Sephiroth
Snake
Sonic
Zelda
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For now, I'm going

Link
Mario
--gap--
Samus, Cloud
Zelda, Sephiroth, Snake
Crono
Mega Man, Pikachu
Sonic

Only thing I'm confident in is that there's a massive gap between Link and Mario and the rest of the field and that Sonic should be last.
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Ok, I'll give it a shot:

Mario
Samus
Cloud
Zelda
Snake
Pikachu
Mega Man
Crono
Sephiroth
Sonic

As a ranking of indirect strength. I would take Zelda over Cloud and Sonic and Sonic over Sephiroth straight-up.

Mario
Samus
Cloud
Zelda
Pikachu
Mega Man
Solid Snake
Crono
Sephiroth
Sonic
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Wow, everyone's really down on Sephiroth.

What makes it hard to dismiss Sephiroth is his 60.26% on Ryu, which I think is hard to argue as being a much worse performance than Zelda's 62.2% on Aeris.
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so tran the only one with sonic > zelda huh
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Link
Mario
Cloud
Samus
Zelda
Pikachu
Mega Man
Snake
Crono
Sephiroth
Sonic
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