Board 8 > Save My Favorite Final Fantasy Characters XXI: Day 93 (RULE CHANGE) [smfffc]

(+) Yeah! (+)

GenesisSaga posted...

MartinFF7 posted...

You want to talk about underdogs? In the top 15 rankings that got posted, 4 people had Lightning at 15/15 and 2 at 14/15.

Auron's lowest was 12/15, and that was one person.

That's real underdog hours.

And those rankings mean next to nothing when people don't put their money where their saves are. Look I'd love to be proven wrong on this, like, I'll absolutely be thrilled if Auron not only survives next round but picks up the support those character rankings would indicate he should. However you can bet your sweet ass I'll be waiting at the end with a big ol' "I FUCKING TOLD YOU SO" banner if he goes out in 5th or 4th. Chris is not going to stop fighting for Red Mage- it's beyond obvious at this point, and in my entire smiffic career I've only bested him once (and even then this was when his [second?] favorite character got the belt, and he got hella support for his pet project the very next contest, so in a way he still won).

Iirc entering top ten you said he wouldnt make top 5.
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Incorrect.

I said he'd likely place in the 7th-5th range, and I wrongfully predicted he'd be out on the lower end of that because expect the worst and you'll never be disappointed. That said, the next coolest thing to Auron surviving the next round would be him going out in 5th having NEVER been the last saved character. Going out like a boss is something I can't be too upset with.
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Also why do i get the feeling i am your smff boogeyman.
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someone had to take my place
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Here are my super accurate unbiased thoughts

One of Red Mage/Edward/Lightning are going down next round for sure. The allegiance mesh between the three is too stressed. I'm putting money on Lightning to drop here.

The round after I imagine it'll be Auron vs Kefka on the block as the elimination will allow consolidated powers between the remaining two. Think Auron is stronger and has more trade currency, so Kefka gets punted.

The band of purists will go behind Auron hard. Think Edward has more non-trade based support.

5. Lightning
4. Kefka
3. Red Mage
2. Edward
1. Auron

How I see it playing out. Just like the comix.

I will say if Red Mage goes out next round instead of Lightning, that this is probably Lightning's best chance of winning.
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Ideally Id like to finally back somebody who wins after like 13 or so contests, but this upcoming round is probably pretty likely to take out one of the Deadly Alliance. If not then probably the next round for sure. We dont have Steiner level numbers to secure anything

5. Auron
4. Lightning
3. Kefka
2. Red Mage
1. Edward
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I don't really have to try running the Predixtor to know it'll guess RM out next

... actually wait I think it guessed Edward yesterday but I didn't upload it

(*does so now*: https://gmun.moe/savemy/predix.html )
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I wonder if it takes into account Red Mage has an NR coming their way!
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actually since other people are posting predictions today I suppose I can just post bot's Top 5 predix

... huh, Edward again *uploads/overwrites*

weird for the first 3 rounds it was always Aeris then RM, Aeris then RM, Aeris then RM
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Tbf Red XIII had a NR last round and we all saw how that went lol
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Bane_Of_Despair posted...

Tbf Red XIII had a NR last round and we all saw how that went lol

In fairness Red XIII should have been fine. Then again people have betrayed my top priority like that before too. I think we can all still remember the figurative blood on the walls from that.
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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Also why do i get the feeling i am [Gen's] smff boogeyman.

It's weird how little this place changes in three years

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Also why do i get the feeling i am your smff boogeyman.

Because you are.

Though honestly you could be that of anyone that's affiliated, but not directly allied with you.
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chris just makes a really good boogeyman tbh

one of the best in the business
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One of the things that I find interesting is remembering or learning how other people see me in comparison to how I view myself. This year for example I have gone out of my way to cut myself off from all my old alliances as much as possible to the point that yesterday was the first time all year I PMed Lefty. I now realize I bet people just assume I've been scheming because typically I do scheme.

Drak one of my prouder moments on this board is, as a newbie to Mercs, causing you to go "Hrm, this could be a problem" basically every step of the way, even replacing someone in the Mercs playoffs in one last bid to oppose you.

I do make a good villain, there is a reason all of my writings are about villains!
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I don't have the coin to hire Ramsay Bolton or Luca Blight as my boogeyman but Chris -- despite costing nearly as much -- goes on sale on Black Friday every year so

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I just think you have a massive ego and get off on people telling you how important you are, regardless of being "reformed" now tbh

but hey seems to work out for you always so I can't knock it too hard
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having a zombie henchman like MWC sounds like a villain
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Who doesn't get off on being called important?

Aside from the unimportant, I suppose.
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Peeking behind the curtain for a moment, it's really a psychological trick more than anything. Tell people you are important and eventually you become important. People chafe against this at times when I play mafia as well, but as you say the results speak for themselves. I am always going to think I am important, as I was raised to always be my own best advocate.

I think it isn't so bad to think I am important, rather than the sad alternative.

Plus hey, no blood has run down from the walls this year yet. Progress!
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I mean you play up the theatrics to an eye rolling level to me personally and that whole angle does the exact opposite for me, but for the general masses I guess they like it yea
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didn't someone just get banned for the rest of the contest?

It may not be running down the walls, but there's definitely some splatter on them
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Bane_Of_Despair posted...

I mean you play up the theatrics to an eye rolling level to me personally and that whole angle does the exact opposite for me, but for the general masses I guess they like it yea

The most important thing is I have fun. I have had a lot of fun this year!
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oh right doesn't FBike out hurt Edward
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What is the point of glorious conquest without theatrics? Very boring.
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Grimlyn posted...

oh right doesn't FBike out hurt Edward

Does anything really hurt Edward?
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Grimlyn posted...

oh right doesn't FBike out hurt Edward

What's a king to a GOD
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Lopen posted...

I will say if Red Mage goes out next round instead of Lightning, that this is probably Lightning's best chance of winning.

Yeah...

I broke my glorious 100% Kefka because you weren't here, Lea.
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I have my prediction for this next round that I will keep to myself, but it doesn't involve Lightning going out.
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I'm actually not a big fan of repeat winning myself, but Auron is the only character left that I actually like, so shouldn't i vote for my favorite final fantasy character that's left? I'm not sure saving a lesser character is worth the principle, especially since it's already been broken anyway.

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I kinda side-eye it fairly frequently when people list their main as likeliest to go out next in predictions -- which isn't fair, I know, since sometimes it's totally sincere. But it's kind of a pet peeve because I have seen it used as a rallying cry at times when it's wholly unnecessary given a character's clear and present strength.

That written, I do think it's possible Edward goes out next, yes.

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guffguy89 posted...

shouldn't i vote for my favorite final fantasy character that's left

yes

be dante be proud
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Yeah I'd never anti-vote repeat winners when there's a lopsidedness of preference towards the repeater.

Like Auron vs Red XIII you bet I'm voting Auron every time.

Auron vs the current remaining field, however? Not so much.
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guffguy89 posted...

I'm actually not a big fan of repeat winning myself, but Auron is the only character left that I actually like, so shouldn't i vote for my favorite final fantasy character that's left? I'm not sure saving a lesser character is worth the principle, especially since it's already been broken anyway.

You should save your favorite remaining Final Fantasy character, yep!

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guff also trades for Auron though.

Still a heresy under Danteism.

i just started that last round, but will probably continue it till he goes, so I guess you got me there

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I wonder how a no trading allowed smfffc contest would look

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Part of the problem for Genny is she let's her gloom out in public. She was like "yeah guffyguy and vcharon won't be around for Auron, maybe a save here or there but not trading." Now both are trading. I get it, privately I was super worried about yesterday being two hours and red mage being murdered but I keep it to myself because I only look bad if he survives.
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SaveEstelle posted...

I kinda side-eye it fairly frequently when people list their main as likeliest to go out next in predictions -- which isn't fair, I know, since sometimes it's totally sincere. But it's kind of a pet peeve because I have seen it used as a rallying cry at times when it's wholly unnecessary given a character's clear and present strength.

for this reason when I think my main is going out I post it somewhere secretly and then post my accurate guess when I'm correct!
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guffguy89 posted...

I wonder how a no trading allowed smfffc contest would look

A lot less popular.
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My main never lasts long enough to be a concern for these lists

That's why you should always trust my list the most
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guffguy89 posted...

I wonder how a no trading allowed smfffc contest would look

All you do is take the public face off of things and make all the deals black market.

The impact would be minimal I'd think.
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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Part of the problem for Genny is she let's her gloom out in public. She was like "yeah guffyguy and vcharon won't be around for Auron, maybe a save here or there but not trading." Now both are trading. I get it, privately I was super worried about yesterday being two hours and red mage being murdered but I keep it to myself because I only look bad if he survives.

Well....I would've jumped on Auron bandwagon immediately, as would have vcharon, and Genny knew that. But both me and vcharon were a bit butthurt about Seymour going out, and needed a little break. I think Genny was just fairly venting about the lost potential support.

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https://i.imgur.com/xJEuvF9.png
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Auron the ultimate underdog*

*please don't take this seriously
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