Current Events > MTG Arena is so bull shit

(+) Yeah! (+)

How do you have a 200+ card deck and still draw 3/4 of your board clearing cards? Not different ones, the same one

How do I get mana flooded with 18 land?

How can I never draw certain cards that I have 4 of when I'm only running 60 cards?

This is all the fucking time

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Bad_Mojo posted...

How do you have a 200+ card deck and still draw 3/4 of your board clearing cards? Not different ones, the same one

How do I get mana flooded with 18 land?

How can I never draw certain cards that I have 4 of when I'm only running 60 cards?

This is all the fucking time

I use untapped to see the chance of me drawing certain cards. You'll quickly realize that the odds of you getting that card you have 4 copies of aren't that great. Sometimes it's just 20-30%

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Green 4 Lyfe

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heart of the cards

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Rainbow_Dashing posted...

I use untapped to see the chance of me drawing certain cards. You'll quickly realize that the odds of you getting that card you have 4 copies of aren't that great. Sometimes it's just 20-30%

It's 4/60 - I can't draw my cards
They have 4/200+ and draw 2-3 of them

What are you even talking about?

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More often than not they'll draw garbage and die with a deck like this.

Played against a 180 card deck the other day and they did just that.
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Def confirmation bias
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Why are the people I play against so fucking stupid? I have 1 creature on the board that is keeping me from death. I have all of my land tapped. They take literally over a minute to use their Murder and kill me

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My God! Look at your fucking Cards and just know what you can do next turn. So stupid! Its not hard.

I get taking your time when you have 3-5 cards in hand and 5 open land. Yeah, make a plan. This is me bitching at people that have 2 or 3 land and its the start.

People are so stupid

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Some people probably take a long time on purpose to troll. Used to happen all the time when I played hearthstone. Id just rope them back and waste time too

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BTW - 12/14 of people getting 3/4 cards. Its not confirmation bias

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Was expecting complaints about the stupid ways Arena is set up to collect and play the game, got complaints about randomness instead.
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Megaman50100 posted...

Was expecting complaints about the stupid ways Arena is set up to collect and play the game, got complaints about randomness instead.

Arena is a great way to play the game. What are you smoking?

I can't even imagine playing paper with how some of the card combos work. At least this game does all that for you. Mathematically at least

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Bad_Mojo posted...

BTW - 12/14 of people getting 3/4 cards. Its not confirmation bias

This random number generator isn't random in ways I WANT IT to be! Wah!

You sound like an absolute ignorant child. Good lord.

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What?

People said it was conformation bias, and I said it wasn't. It's true. That's it

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Why would anyone even bother to write a "biased shuffler"?

Bad_Mojo posted...

I can't even imagine playing paper with how some of the card combos work. At least this game does all that for you. Mathematically at least

Some combos are actually easier on paper than on Arena.
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Anteaterking posted...

Some combos are actually easier on paper than on Arena.

I feel like most things are easier on paper than arena

Also people taking a long time when they don't really have any thinking to do is probably them tabbed out to something else
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Anteaterking posted...

Some combos are actually easier on paper than on Arena

I disagree

I can't even imagine trying to calculate some of the tricks with Chandra's Spitfire. For example, a bunch of 1/1s attacking with Cavalcade Of Calamity making the Spitfire even stronger

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kirbymuncher posted...

I feel like most things are easier on paper than arena

Yeah, 4 Mirror Marches with like 40 procs is so easy on paper
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Bad_Mojo posted...

What?

People said it was conformation bias, and I said it wasn't. It's true. That's it

It still might be confirmation bias. It depends on how you were tracking whether people were drawing 3/4 copies of a card. Did you decide on a specific card you didn't want to see, check to see if your opponents drew that specific card 3+ times, and have it happen 12 times in 14 trials? Or, did you simply notice that 12 out of 14 opponents played some good card against you 3+ times?

The first case is very unlikely, and if that's what you observed then you are indeed not just falling for confirmation bias. The second case is not unlikely at all and it's probably confirmation bias that is causing you to fixate on it.

If it's the second case--and I suspect it is--what you're overlooking is that each game involves numerous trials for having 3+ copies of a card drawn. In a basic 10x4 + 20 land 60 card deck, there are 10 trials per game. Most decks will have anywhere from 8-10 trials per game (and I'm simplifying because these aren't independent trials). The odds of at least one card showing up with 3 copies are much, much, much higher than the odds of a specific card showing up three times.

I track every single game I play. A lot of people are running 100+ card decks and are still drawing 2 or 3 of the same card that they only have 4 of. Well, 4 at the most.

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Bad_Mojo posted...

Anteaterking posted...

Some combos are actually easier on paper than on Arena

I disagree

I can't even imagine trying to calculate some of the tricks with Chandra's Spitfire. For example, a bunch of 1/1s attacking with Cavalcade Of Calamity making the Spitfire even stronger

It's not an opinion thing. There are literally combos that are instantaneous in paper that take much longer to do on Arena or MTGO.
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If I'm running a 100 card deck (with, say, 36 lands) I could easily have 16 different cards that might come up 3+ times. That's a lot of chances to have one of those 16 cards show up 3 times.

Anteaterking posted...

Bad_Mojo posted...

Anteaterking posted...

Some combos are actually easier on paper than on Arena

I disagree

I can't even imagine trying to calculate some of the tricks with Chandra's Spitfire. For example, a bunch of 1/1s attacking with Cavalcade Of Calamity making the Spitfire even stronger

It's not an opinion thing. There are literally combos that are instantaneous in paper that take much longer to do on Arena or MTGO.

Examples being:
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tiornys posted...

If I'm running a 100 card deck (with, say, 36 lands) I could easily have 16 different cards that might come up 3+ times. That's a lot of chances to have one of those 16 cards show up 3 times.

Im no math guy, but running 60 cards and never drawing 1/4 and ruining 100+ and drawing 3/4 is bull shit. Over and over and over and over again

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ASithLord7 posted...

Examples being:

Across Magic?
Splinter Twin (in paper you shortcut to "Make 100 tokens", in MTGO you have to go through the process of using Splinter Twin, making a new token, untapping the previous token, etc.)

Devoted Druid + Vizier of Remedies for arbitrarily large amounts of mana (In paper you shortcut to "Make 10 billion mana, in MTGO you have to go through the process, etc.)

Spike Feeder combo

etc.

Just using cards in Arena?
Two examples: you can use Biomancer's Familiar + Incubation Druid + Gauntlets of Light to generate arbitrarily large amounts of mana.

Famished Paladin + Sorcerer's Wand + anything that gives lifelink is an instant kill in paper, but requires you to manually activate wand's ability for each damage in Arena.
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Bad_Mojo posted...

tiornys posted...

If I'm running a 100 card deck (with, say, 36 lands) I could easily have 16 different cards that might come up 3+ times. That's a lot of chances to have one of those 16 cards show up 3 times.

Im no math guy, but running 60 cards and never drawing 1/4 and ruining 100+ and drawing 3/4 is bull shit. Over and over and over and over again

Not comparable. You're failing to draw at least 1 copy of a specific card. They're succeeding in drawing 3 copies of some non-land card in their deck.

Bad_Mojo posted...

Im no math guy, but running 60 cards and never drawing 1/4 and ruining 100+ and drawing 3/4 is bull s***. Over and over and over and over again

I am a math guy. Tell me exactly what odds you want calculated.
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How is it not comparable?

I have a 60 card deck with 4 Shocks in it
They're running over a 100 with 4 Shocks in it
I draw zero, they draw all 4

Anteaterking posted... I am a math guy. Tell me exactly what odds you want calculated.

That

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Bad_Mojo posted...

How is it not comparable?

I have a 60 card deck with 4 Shocks in it
They're running over a 100 with 4 Shocks in it
I draw zero, they draw all 4

And every time you're complaining about, it's Shock specifically that you aren't drawing and they are drawing?

Bad_Mojo posted...

That

How many turns is the game going?
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lol, that's fair, I guess.

Let's just say 20 turns each

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Anteaterking posted...

Bad_Mojo posted...

That

How many turns is the game going?

Also, is either deck running any deck manipulation and/or extra card draw?

Some of them, sure. But not a lot of people are running card draw right now. At least that I've faced

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Bad_Mojo posted...

lol, that's fair, I guess.

Let's just say 20 turns each

There's a 5.8% chance that someone who hasn't drawn an extra card in 20 turns has drawn 3+/4 shocks.

There's an 8.3% chance that you've drawn none.

Now this ignores a lot of other effects, like mulligan decisions, etc.
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So to be clear, if it's Shock every time, then yes, that is bullshit. But if you're noticing that some (differing) card of yours isn't showing up and some other (differing) card is showing up for your opponent 3 times, that's not only not bullshit, it's actually expected.

ASithLord7 posted...

Yeah, 4 Mirror Marches with like 40 procs is so easy on paper

well I did say most, not all

mass coinflipping is something definitely easier digitally because it would be a very repetitive action in person. And on the flip side, something like a big thousand year storm is a lot easier to do in paper because you don't need to keep clicking targets and hitting the resolve button
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tiornys posted...

So to be clear, if it's Shock every time, then yes, that is bullshit. But if you're noticing that some (differing) card of yours isn't showing up and some other (differing) card is showing up for your opponent 3 times, that's not only not bullshit, it's actually expected.

That isn't what I'm talking about here. Not they're drawing 4 of the card I want. What I'm saying is that in their 100+ card decks they're always drawing the same cards [They draw 3-4 Murders for example], and in my 60 card decks, which I have 4 of every card, I can't draw 3 or 4 of them

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So I think, but am not sure, that what is happening is a phenomenon of different information levels. When you analyze what's happening with your deck, you know everything about the deck, so you know both what you have drawn and what you haven't. When you analyze what is happening with your opponent's deck, you only know what you see, which is cards they draw and reveal (whether by playing, discarding, etc.).

If the odds that you draw 0 of a Shock, as calculated above, are 8.3%, and you have 10 unique non-land cards with 4 copies each, then the odds are 45% that you draw 0 copies of at least one of those cards in a 20 turn game. That's going to happen a good amount of the time.

Properly calculating the odds of drawing 3+ copies of any one of those 10 cards is a lot more complicated, and even though I'm a math guy I'm not sure how to run the calculation. But the odds are pretty good.

But I'm still pissed off, lol. It's so f'n annoying. Seriously, there is zero point in putting more than 20 lands in your 60 card deck because the game will never mana screw you, only flood you. Like I said in my opening post, I can have 18 land and still get flooded. I don't have 20 land in any of my decks and I never am mana screwed. Never. And I play at least 30 games a day

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Hmm. Unless your mana curve is extremely low, that does point towards something odd going on.

tiornys posted...

Hmm. Unless your mana curve is extremely low, that does point towards something odd going on.

What does curve have to do with it? Like, I get what that means, but curve has nothing to do with drawing 4 land in a row when you only have 18 in deck and you have 3 already in play

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Curve impacts the working definition of "mana screwed".

tiornys posted...

Curve impacts the working definition of "mana screwed".

I disagree

Curve is having 3 land in had and 4 cards in your opening hand. 3 of them are one drops, and 1 of them is a 3 drop

Land - Play your 1 drop
Land - Play 2 of your 1 drops
Land - Play your 3 drop

All the while drawing your 4th land or more cards you can play

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Ok, let me get a little more explicit.

If your deck consists entirely of 1 and 2 mana spells, then you only need 2 lands to operate and I would expect you to almost never consider yourself to be "mana screwed". At the other extreme, if a third of your deck costs 5+ mana and you expect to hit your 5th land drop by turn 6 at the latest, then I would expect you to feel "mana screwed" reasonably often.

I expect your cutoff for feeling mana screwed is actually about when you get your third or your fourth land drop, but I don't know which, and mathematically there's a big difference between consistently getting your 3rd land drop on turn 3 (or maybe even by turn 4-5) vs. consistently getting your 4th land drop on turn 4.

That's why I qualified my comment, because other things you've said make me think you're running a deck with a relatively low mana curve--mostly 1-2 mana spells with some 3 mana spells and maybe a few 4 mana spells. I'm a lot less surprised if you're never mana screwed with a deck like that than if you're never mana screwed with a traditional control deck.

Also, thinking about this some more, it's possible you could be injecting some bias via mulligan decisions. Possibly you could stand to be more willing to mulligan for too few spells in your opening hands than you currently are.

I get you. Thanks for the explanation

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