Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 277: Let's have a *Super* Tuesday

(+) Yeah! (+)

PBS has called California for Bernie already

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/sanders-wins-california-super-tuesdays-biggest-prize

I have no idea why there are so many early calls.

---

LordoftheMorons posted...

Thread on CA:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1235054854860443648

There's going to be a lot of uncertainty on the margin here for quite a while.

Keep in mind with california, many polling locations, including one a 5 minute walk from my house, have been opened for 2 weeks. So significant votes will have been cast before any of the dropouts. This is going to be nothing like the usual absentee ballot count.

---

pxlated posted...

i'm sorry, you're going to have to clarify your position here.

are you legitimately trying to say that money has no substantial influence over politics?

I'm saying it's not the be all end all. Biden didn't do shit in some of the states he's winning. Billionaires can't just waltz in and buy the nomination of a major political party as evidenced by Bloomberg. It takes a hell of a lot more.


---

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

I have no idea why there are so many early calls.

The early calls have all been safe. No reason to wait.

---

Pokewars posted...

I'm saying it's not the be all end all. Biden didn't do shit in some of the states he's winning. Billionaires can't just waltz in and buy the nomination of a major political party as evidenced by Bloomberg. It takes a hell of a lot more.

But if you actually run a ground campaign unlike Bloomberg, the additional money will give you a 15% head start on the competition.

---

Pokewars posted...

I'm saying it's not the be all end all. Biden didn't do shit in some of the states he's winning. Billionaires can't just waltz in and buy the nomination of a major political party as evidenced by Bloomberg. It takes a hell of a lot more.

again: there's an ocean of a difference between not being able to buy a nomination and "there is nothing to fear about money in politics"


---

https://twitter.com/sunrisemvmt/status/1235055689703321600

---

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-massachusetts-president-democrat-primary-election.html

this one's amazing on multiple levels. biden's win is just something that needs more context, how? bernie winning over warren is impressive but expected too.

almost as amazing as biden's win though is the person in last place:
bloomberg did worse than tulsi.


---

https://twitter.com/cwarzel/status/1235033544440733696?s=21

Jim Clyburn says Biden talks too much about policy and should focus on emotions.

Meanwhile nobody (including this topic earlier!) can even make an argument as to what Bidens policies are!

---

KamikazePotato posted...

https://twitter.com/sunrisemvmt/status/1235055689703321600

if they aren't going to come out for bernie here then they aren't going to come out for trump either.
it's one of the issues his campaign has always faced: he needs the youth vote.

thus, he loses.

---

KamikazePotato posted...

https://twitter.com/sunrisemvmt/status/1235055689703321600

i mean, this logic would tell you the opposite. the dems would be planning their own funeral if they elect bernie because the youth don't vote

---

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1235059145272745984

---

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1235055417417494530

---

There is no way to defeat Trmp without record youth turnout.

Not true.


---

NFUN posted...

i mean, this logic would tell you the opposite. the dems would be planning their own funeral if they elect bernie because the youth don't vote

yeah uh

the youth already didn't bother with today, an already significant ballot with Bernie's name on it

---

If the youth are going to vote they have a whole primary season to come out and show they are on board for the whole ride. If they don't show up for the primary, like hell if anyone is going to count on them for a general.

---

GuessMyUserName posted...

yeah uh

the youth already didn't bother with today, an already significant ballot with Bernie's name on it

The youth are hella plugged in and easily dissuaded, so when the media says their guy is going to lose, they lose.

---

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

The youth are hella plugged in and easily dissuaded, so when the media says their guy is going to lose, they lose.

You realize they are going to have an entire election season of Trump coverage 24/7 to deal with?

If this is going to make them jaded...

---

pxlated posted...

again: there's an ocean of a difference between not being able to buy a nomination and "there is nothing to fear about money in politics"

Yes....there's this this thing called hyperbole.

---

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

The youth are hella plugged in and easily dissuaded, so when the media says their guy is going to lose, they lose.

yes the youth being so easily dissuaded is exactly why they are so unreliable

that's entirely on them for letting the boomers control them so god damn easily

---

31% to 8% that Biden wins the nom outright now according to 538 right now.

---

Corrik7 posted...

31% to 8% that Biden wins the nom outright now according to 538 right now.

That hasn't factored in today's results (and I would guess that Nate won't turn it back on until CA is in?)

---

red13n posted...

You realize they are going to have an entire election season of Trump coverage 24/7 to deal with?

If this is going to make them jaded...

Do you think the media is going to report constantly about Trumps inevitable win like they did with Biden (outside of that one blissful week of naivety)?

Are the old Dems not going to turnout?

I fail to see how Bernie could possibly have less turnout in a General unless the old #BlueNoMatterWho Dems are enormous liars.

---

Biden cutting like crazy in Texas. I think he takes it

---

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1235061178956570624

Maybe the repeated results showing that people like progressive policies will encourage the DNC to start adopting th - haha yeah I can't finish that sentence

---

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Do you think the media is going to report constantly about Trumps inevitable win like they did with Biden (outside of that one blissful week of naivety)?

Are the old Dems not going to turnout?

I fail to see how Bernie could possibly have less turnout in a General unless the old #BlueNoMatterWho Dems are enormous liars.

To your last point, Democrats have always been more likely to vote for the other guy than Republicans.

---

Also any group seriously using hashtags probably isn't the old group you are thinking of.

---

KamikazePotato posted...

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1235061178956570624

Maybe the repeated results showing that people like progressive policies will encourage the DNC to start adopting th - haha yeah I can't finish that sentence

California can lead but cannot turn progressive ideals into policy. You need to win seats in places that arent California. We don't matter to anyone but California because we are blue no matter what.

---

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Do you think the media is going to report constantly about Trumps inevitable win like they did with Biden (outside of that one blissful week of naivety)?

Are the old Dems not going to turnout?

I fail to see how Bernie could possibly have less turnout in a General unless the old #BlueNoMatterWho Dems are enormous liars.

There are a ton of BlueNoMatterWho voters who will turn out for Bernie (some enthusiastically, some indifferently, and some begrudgingly). But there are also a significant number of swing voters who don't like Trump but who aren't BlueNoMatterWho, some of whom aren't even quite nevertrump. Some of these people will stay home if Bernie is the nominee, and some will vote for Trump.

---

like the media has been completely shitting themselves throughout the month about Bernie's successful campaign, if the last 3 days of SC coverage (67% being weekend coverage no less) is enough to instantly dissuade them from bothering then yeah the youth vote fucking sucks and nobody will ever give a shit about them

---

Media had been calling Bernie the favorite for 2 weeks.

---

LordoftheMorons posted...

But there are also a significant number of swing voters who don't like Trump but who aren't BlueNoMatterWho, some of whom aren't even quite nevertrump. Some of these people will stay home if Bernie is the nominee, and some will vote for Trump.

This is such a myth, you guys completely ignored and have forgotten about the embarrassed Trump voter demographic, which is the people who claim to be swing voters/moderates but 100% voted for Trump.

Ill try to find an article, but there was a pretty compelling study that showed back and forth swing voters are a statistical anomaly, and what determines elections is 100% the group of people who either vote Democrat or dont vote at all.

Now the question is if you believe those people are more likely to be Dems scared away by leftists or leftists who dont give a shit about centrists.

I think the fact that Obama crushed running as a faux-progressive while every moderate in the last 20 years has lost is evidence that Im right.

---

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1235054164788445184

Uh...

---

All things being said, lower than expected youth turnout wouldn't shock me in the slightest. A big trend of the current youth generation these days is to talk about all the things they do but never actually do much of what they say(From a gamer standpoint, they love to watch and talk about all these games they've watched on stream, but they've played very little of these games themselves). Convincing them to get off their phones and do anything is a chore.

---

https://twitter.com/elivalley/status/1235046081156616192?s=21

Someone PLEASE call Hillary and have her deliver Biden some adrenochrome, because I cannot take another 8 months of watching this dude speak.

The debates are going to be incredible.

---

red13n posted...

Media had been calling Bernie the favorite for 2 weeks.

But then...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Nvxz_NbMolI

---

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1235055720720003072

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Ill try to find an article, but there was a pretty compelling study that showed back and forth swing voters are a statistical anomaly, and what determines elections is 100% the group of people who either vote Democrat or dont vote at all.

This is correct by the way. Swing voters exist but they're in so small a number that they don't matter.

---

KamikazePotato posted...

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1235054164788445184

Uh...

Buttigieg was asking for money an hour before he dropped out. Most of these messages have long since been automated. The campaign moves on up until the moment the candidate actually drops out.

---

KamikazePotato posted...

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1235054164788445184

Uh...

You lost your OWN STATE. Not even SECOND.

come on now

---

FFDragon posted...

But then...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Nvxz_NbMolI

So what you are saying is they wasted all our time and should have just gone giant mecha all along?

---

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

This is such a myth, you guys completely ignored and have forgotten about the embarrassed Trump voter demographic, which is the people who claim to be swing voters/moderates but 100% voted for Trump.

Ill try to find an article, but there was a pretty compelling study that showed back and forth swing voters are a statistical anomaly, and what determines elections is 100% the group of people who either vote Democrat or dont vote at all.

Now the question is if you believe those people are more likely to be Dems scared away by leftists or leftists who dont give a shit about centrists.

I think the fact that Obama crushed running as a faux-progressive while every moderate in the last 20 years has lost is evidence that Im right.

These people absolutely exist. They're the ones who swung the House to the Dems in 2018. And (sorry to keep posting this) they show up in the data:
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/25/21152538/bernie-sanders-electability-president-moderates-data

True swing voters might only make up 5-10% of the electorate, but that's absolutely significant in a close election.

---

No progressive should be throwing in the towel right now. The fact is that the establishment threw everything they possibly could at Bernie and this was still the best they could do. A coordinated effort to get every candidate to drop out and endorse Biden...and they're still BARELY beating Bernie as of the current delegate count. Fucking. Barely. When you want to give up and get sad about these results, remember, that's remarkable.

There's a long way to go.

---

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

The youth are hella plugged in and easily dissuaded, so when the media says their guy is going to lose, they lose.

that's their own damn fault, then.
if you don't have the conviction to go through with a simple vote, you don't deserve to get your guy to win.


---

Also I've been telling you people Warren drops out Wednesday. I stand by it. Be patient. And I'm going to remind you that in my mind you don't transition from one day to the next until you have gone to bed for the night(in the case of an all nighter, the sun has to be back up, and all the way up none of that red sky sunrise bullshit)

---

If going giant mech is on the table, I think you always take it tbqh

---

KamikazePotato posted...

You are correct, but people will die because of Biden's policies as well. Less than with Trump, but more than with Bernie. Is it better to stop short-term bleeding or to make a statement that you're uninterested in choosing between the lesser of two evils, and to make them put forth a better candidate next time?

This is a terrible way of getting people on your side btw. "Fuck your life, I'm not going to save it if I can't save everyone." Like you don't get to say "Yeah, I care about women's rights and LGBT rights." when you won't stop the bleeding. I'd say the exact same to the #NeverBernie crowd. They don't get to claim to be champions of rights for all people, when you refuse to vote for someone because you disagree with some of their policies, despite the fact that the person you'll let be in charge has far worse policies. People's lives will be effected. Maybe not yours. But many lives will be effected by giving Trump 4 more years. And not just for four years. For DECADES because Trump has SCOTUS picks he'll be able to make. Including possibly replacing Clarence Thomas, RBG, and Stephen Breyer. That means Trump may have picked a total of 5 of 9 supreme court justices. If you find that's an acceptable price to pay... well I'm not sure how much you really care about the things you say you care about. Cause that's a majority right there.

---

Biden within half a point in Texas and trending up :)

---

Biden now trails Sanders in Texas by 450 votes with 44% of the vote left.

And the third horseman of the trashfire apocalypse came riding in.

---

FFDragon posted...

If going giant mech is on the table, I think you always take it tbqh

If I could have all the time back from watching TV where they could have solved everything by immediately summoning a giant mech.

---

Oh but seriously do give up on Warren ever endorsing Bernie

just don't see it happening

---