Board 8 > The Show EP 1 - The Glorious Return of GotD! Breaking down the bracket w/ Leon

(+) Yeah! (+)

Yeah, I'm just not sold on this site being the type of place that will vote for Dragon Ball just because it's Dragon Ball. There's precious little evidence of that.

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Wasnt Goku a character that people wanted in Smush when FighterZ came out on the Switch?

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Character people want in Smash are not necessarily popular with voters. Like you can find lots of people who want Geno in Smash but Geno does poorly in Character Battles.
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When people look at two games they havent played the picture comes into play and its whether youre drawn into by the DeLoreon or Goku.

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Looking at Genos contest history, hes gone up against only Squall and Ness. You could argue that they both SFFd him.

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SwiftyDC posted...

Looking at Genos contest history, hes gone up against only Squall and Ness. You could argue that they both SFFd him.

You could argue that but it wouldn't matter

If you're getting SFF'd by Ness that's a sure sign you suck

Also

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7115-if-you-could-convince-nintendo-to-just-put-one-more

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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3249-division-2-round-1-bowser-cain-geno-phoenix

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5215-character-battle-ix-division-9-round-1-mega-man-vs-geno-vs

Geno sucks

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Yeah I saw that, but I dont put much stock into multi-selection polls when trying to determine a 1-on-1 match.

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Oh so you guys are comparing Geno to Goku?

Goku would win for sure.

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SwiftyDC posted...

Yeah I saw that, but I dont put much stock into multi-selection polls when trying to determine a 1-on-1 match.

They're more transitive than you'd think

But when Geno has 5+ matches where he looks like crap every time that's not him just being put in unfortunate situations. That's just him sucking.

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The contest has been delayed to Thursday the 19th now, which means we can probably get in another episode before the contest starts, if there's anything left to talk about...!

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All I asked was if Goku was a character that the Smash community wanted in and got a lesson on Geno's history lol.

The correct answer is no, well atleast not in the Top 18 (unless there's a new ranking since B&K made the roster)



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LeonhartFour posted...

And a brand name like Mortal Kombat is a bit different. I just don't think the name Dragon Ball is enough on its own to win a match against a game people probably know. Batman and Spider-Man can be popular here because their games fit the GameFAQs brand. I don't know if Dragon Ball qualifies.

I would say genre of the game is far more important than the brand name. A Dragon Ball RPG would have a higher potential strength ceiling than a Dragon Ball fighter. And with very few exceptions like all-time classics such as Street Fighter II and Mortal Kombat II, or games from the Smash series, fighting games are generally quite weak on this site.
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Goku might have been omitted because he isn't a video game character.
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Plus it wouldn't even be fair since he can just fly and instant transmission everywhere.

Edit: Wait, nvm. Ridley and Pit fly.

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I have no idea who or what Geno is but he looks awful. If that's one of the most requested characters then the fanbase has really hit the bottom of the barrel.

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shane15 posted...

I have no idea who or what Geno is but he looks awful. If that's one of the most requested characters then the fanbase has really hit the bottom of the barrel.

Super Mario RPG

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shane15 posted...

I have no idea who or what Geno is but he looks awful. If that's one of the most requested characters then the fanbase has really hit the bottom of the barrel.

Liking a character who has 16 bit graphics... how dare you, GameFAQs!

SwiftyDC posted...

Super Mario RPG

Street Fighter II has Ryu, and its already been proven that Super Mario RPG is better, so thats another reason to back Geno for Smash.

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ZeldaTPLink posted...

Liking a character who has 16 bit graphics... how dare you, GameFAQs!

I thought this was about Smash Bros not GameFAQs.

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What are we even talking about anymore.

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The thing is that even GameFAQs doesn't seem to like Geno that much (and we liked his game a lot!). I find it hard to believe Geno is more popular outside of GameFAQs which means he's a super questionable choice for SSB.
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I doubt anyone in Europe gives a damn considering the game wasn't even released here.

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Team Rocket Elite posted...

The thing is that even GameFAQs doesn't seem to like Geno that much (and we liked his game a lot!). I find it hard to believe Geno is more popular outside of GameFAQs which means he's a super questionable choice for SSB.

Lots of Square RPG characters of his era have disappointed in the contests time after time, including pretty much the entirety of the FF4 and FF6 casts. I dont think thats really much of an indictment of the demand for Geno in Smash.

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shane15 posted...

I doubt anyone in Europe gives a damn considering the game wasn't even released here.

Glad this forum is not just Europe, then!

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Yeah, I agree with yo on that. Should have been Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony.

This so much

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MetalmindStats posted...

I don't think Allen imposed a 2 game per series limit; for one, I find it very hard to believe we wouldn't have seen a second Pokmon game otherwise, given that HGSS snagged a 3-seed. Perhaps my biggest piece of evidence, though, is that 999 missed the bracket, even though VLR comfortably made it. The first two entries in the Zero Escape series both snagged 15-seeds in 2015's much more competitive bracket, and I highly doubt 999 even making that field was an intentional set-up by Allen to have both games together on the same seed line. Instead, I think Allen/"the selection committee" seeded this field mostly based on nominations, but threw out games that ranked lower in terms of nominations, GameFAQs rating/critic review scores, and popularity than at least one other game from the same series. Granted, that doesn't explain Sword and Shield being left out, for example, but it's a sufficiently hated game that I wouldn't be surprised if it legitimately didn't have enough nominations.

I agree that 2 isn't a hard limit. I think that for each game that makes the bracket, Allen raises the bar for other games in that series to get in somehow or other. VLR being a 10 seed while 999 doesn't even make the bracket seems too suspicious.

I feel like he's been doing this for awhile too. IIRC there was a seemingly big rally to get Repede or some other Tales character into the 2013 character battle I believe and it didn't work even though there was a bunch of garbage in that bracket.

Of course, nomination LFF can explain some of this. Like for Pokemon, I think Black and Black 2 leeched each other, and people that still loved X/Y back in 2015 were probably split between X/Y, SuMo, and SwSh too. But HG/SS being a 3 seed while nothing else makes the cut at all?

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I finally finished listening to this episode tonight. As I've said before, this was a quality episode, and a perfect way to kick off the bracket entry period!

The only other thing I really want to say is that I have a hunch that Breath of the Wild isn't quite the all-consuming monster everyone seems to think it is, and further that obvious winner syndrome will hinder it. That's not to say it will lose in the absence of a mass rally, but I think whatever game faces it in the finals (unless it's somehow another Nintendo game) will break 45%.

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In 2015 gens 3-5 all missed the cut, why would any of the more controversial games make the cut here?

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We've already beaten this dead horse. Won't know anything unless SBAllen gives us some stats.

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Everyone should check out this bracket analysis from TPLink:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78458663

Long story short, history says your best chance of winning this year is to have 15-17 upsets in your bracket. My thought was

"Very cool stuff, glad I could help make this possible! I agree BTW, we've been lulled into chalk talk by SB's strong seeding when in reality we're going to be blindsided many times this bracket, just like we were 10 years ago."

Also scaryice did some analysis of how many people worldwide have played all the games in the bracket, it's very interesting.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78404509/935264498

Keep in mind these are Playstation-only numbers so something like Last of Us is going to look better than if we had the PC/Xbox numbers added as well.


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You talk about Smash 4 being redundant, but you ignore how Mass Effect 2 and 3 are both in this contest, when ME3 is blatantly weaker thanks both to being the later game and especially because of its giant black mark that made the franchise a pariah for the rest of 2012.

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Trollblade74 posted...

You talk about Smash 4 being redundant, but you ignore how Mass Effect 2 and 3 are both in this contest, when ME3 is blatantly weaker thanks both to being the later game and especially because of its giant black mark that made the franchise a pariah for the rest of 2012.

This is absolutely not the same thing. Smash Ultimate makes Smash 4 obsolete. There's no reason to play Smash 4 anymore if you have access to Ultimate.

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I would have been interested in seeing how strong, or weak, Smash 4 is now after SSBU came out.
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Leonhart4 posted...

This is absolutely not the same thing. Smash Ultimate makes Smash 4 obsolete. There's no reason to play Smash 4 anymore if you have access to Ultimate.

But what if I really loved Smash Tour?

Said no one ever.

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Smash Run was a fantastic mode that was not fleshed out enough

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I'm away on vacation so I missed the memo on the Contest being delayed by 5/6 days. That's actually PERFECT! I was going to have to get out my laptop and create the new Guru site for this season at the AirBnB, now I'll be able to wait until I get back to my house.

It also gives us an opportunity to record one more pre-lockdown episode if we want... no promises on that, we'll see how the schedules look for yo and I next week!


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LusterSoldier posted...

XD at Ngamer referring to Aloy as a TJF waifu girl and a Korean Starcraft champ in this discussion of Aloy losing to D.Va in the last Character Battle.

No I was saying it wasn't an embarrassing loss for Aloy because D.Va has so many things going for her beyond just her game (TJF, waifu, StarCraft champ, Mtn Dew, Doritos).

LusterSoldier posted...

I see Ngamer hasn't gotten over his buttannihilation of Allen refusing to allow Spider-Man into the last Character Battle in this discussion of Marvel's Spider-Man.

And I never will!


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MetalmindStats posted...

I don't think Allen imposed a 2 game per series limit

IMO it wasn't a hard and fast two game limit, instead he probably applied (what he considers) common sense. As in "okay Skyward Sword earns a 12 seed based on my metrics... but it's not going to be stronger than the other two entries in the series so do we really need to see it? I think not." And "hmmm, looks like we have three generations of Pokemon that make the cut. they'll probably all perform within a few percentage points of each other though, so let's only use the #1 choice and save the other two spots for new entries."

Which I'm 100% fine with BTW, just wish Nintendo hadn't been double nerfed by that common sense filter AND firing all its best bullets in one division.


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Yuri_LowelI posted...

ngamer...youre heavily overestimating GTAV by the way. Lets not forget the GTA franchise died when Golden Sun embarrassed its strongest game.

GTAv also doesnt have as much respect as you think.

and i wish the internal volume was louder when you guys speak.

What? You don't have to sell me on GTA Flops, I'm the one who has it losing to Cuphead! Someone else was saying we shouldn't count it out so easily (don't remember if that was yo or Leon).

And yes I did notice on the playback that our voices could have been louder, I'll see if I can adjust that for EP2.

MetalmindStats posted...

* In my opinion, KP's indie glass ceiling concept is pretty obviously valid, but translating it to actual contest strength would be a flawed leap because each of the games that has truly broken the glass ceiling on GameFAQs has done so in a totally different way. In chronological order, Minecraft (if you count it) did it by becoming a phenomenal mainstream hit, The Walking Dead (again if you count it) did it by attracting mass critical attention, Shovel Knight did it by most effectively distilling what games were like when the average GameFAQs user played their first game, Undertale did it via the efforts and devotion of its fanbase, and Cuphead did it because it attracted a level of pre-release hype normally reserved for triple-A sequels. I anticipate Shovel Knight being the only one of those five games that will be a clear step ahead of popular and well-liked indies such as Celeste, Hollow Knight, and Stardew Valley that nonetheless didn't quite break the glass ceiling here. With all that being said, the indie glass ceiling is why I'm still reasonably confident in picking The Walking Dead to beat Bastion.

Hmmm yes, well said, I agree with all of the above.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

I think Allen actually listened to the show this week because he put a site-wide banner!

Atta boy SB!

MetalmindStats posted...

* I'm still completely unsure where all the Undertale confidence is coming from here. Unrallied Undertale definitely isn't the same game it was in 2015, yes, but for every voter who has played and loved it since 2015, there's another who still dislikes it because of 2015.

We mentioned that epic Revenge Vote in the Draven match but perhaps you're right and we're underestimating how much backlash Undertale is going to receive. I think it's on a different level because Draven was a total site takeover by the number one game in the world that dwarfed our whole website for userbase size... and by a genre of game we despise, to boot! Oh also all the bad blood over whatever suspiciously took the website offline during Link's best hour.

While on the other hand UT is a cute indie RPG with characters and a story and it took unique meme pictures and stuff to win people over and get them to visit the site and vote, all of which left us way less bitter, and made it more likely people would give the game a try. So I do think it's going to have grown since its 2015 natural strength... but you may be right, perhaps that's not going to be enough.


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azuarc posted...

D3: I'm also playing with the notion of Odyssey over Smash, which is only a 24 point swing in the bracket. Such a huge gamble.

An Odyssey win would be so amazing. I honestly think I'd pull the trigger on that upset if not for 1. how I've been burned by every Mario without a 64 behind it in the past 2. how Ultimate extended its relevancy for so long with the DLC characters, and is now extending it even further with a second batch of characters that continues to draw discussion across the internet.


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MetalmindStats posted...

obvious winner syndrome will hinder it

That's true, since the site shrunk and we were left with older, smarter voters we've often seen that kind of backlash to the dominant entrants/expected winners in the final week. We may have focused too much on I've Heard Good Things About/respect votes/TRUE GotD factors (all of which are great for BotW) at the expense of how that might turn on its head at the very end.

...but even so, BotW is just sooooooooooo far ahead of the field, I'm not sure it will matter. I could see it dropping five percentage points to Skyrim or Witcher 3 or Dark Souls, but even so I'd be amazed if those games got within spitting distance of 45%.


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Thanks for the reply, Ng. I don't currently have Odyssey in my bracket, but it would be a way to set myself apart from the crowd (without plying the Mario Kart upset.)

In other news, since this is my go-to-location for contest news (what's a stats thread?), I'd like to cross-post Friday night's VGM guessing game here. Usually only the VGM crew turn out for these things, but I'm trying to pull the rest of the board in for this one, which contains one song from each GotD entrant -- https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78465369

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Ngamer64 posted...

That's true, since the site shrunk and we were left with older, smarter voters we've often seen that kind of backlash to the dominant entrants/expected winners in the final week. We may have focused too much on I've Heard Good Things About/respect votes/TRUE GotD factors (all of which are great for BotW) at the expense of how that might turn on its head at the very end.

...but even so, BotW is just sooooooooooo far ahead of the field, I'm not sure it will matter. I could see it dropping five percentage points to Skyrim or Witcher 3 or Dark Souls, but even so I'd be amazed if those games got within spitting distance of 45%.

I banked on this happening in 2018, and it cost me 13th place overall. I don't see Breath of the Wild losing without some sort of outside influence.

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The corona virus can't stop Game of the Decade at least

Let's hope so anyway

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Ngamer64 posted...

IMO it wasn't a hard and fast two game limit, instead he probably applied (what he considers) common sense. As in "okay Skyward Sword earns a 12 seed based on my metrics... but it's not going to be stronger than the other two entries in the series so do we really need to see it? I think not." And "hmmm, looks like we have three generations of Pokemon that make the cut. they'll probably all perform within a few percentage points of each other though, so let's only use the #1 choice and save the other two spots for new entries."

I agree this makes sense to explain what Allen did, but including every game with enough nominations certainly would have made this bracket look less chalky.

Ngamer64 posted...

We mentioned that epic Revenge Vote in the Draven match but perhaps you're right and we're underestimating how much backlash Undertale is going to receive. I think it's on a different level because Draven was a total site takeover by the number one game in the world that dwarfed our whole website for userbase size... and by a genre of game we despise, to boot! Oh also all the bad blood over whatever suspiciously took the website offline during Link's best hour.

I do agree that the Draven backlash is on a different level than the Undertale backlash, and of course, Draven's natural strength without antivotes would also have been way worse here. But just to put things in perspective here, Sans only scored 29% on Pac-Man in 2018, whereas Primrose managed 26% on Zero - and Sans is the symbol of his game, beloved by pretty much everyone who likes his game, as opposed to Primrose, who's merely one member of a JRPG's ensemble cast. Indeed, just as much as I think Undertale's being overestimated due to antivotes canceling out new fans since 2015 and its GotD respect, I also think Octopath is being underestimated for the reasons I've already mentioned.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

I banked on this happening in 2018, and it cost me 13th place overall. I don't see Breath of the Wild losing without some sort of outside influence.

Oh, I agree with this, but I'm just not convinced Breath of the Wild is as far ahead of the rest of the field as Link was in 2018.

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I think the biggest wasted opportunity in this bracket is that SSBU didn't draw a match with Skyrim. Wanted to see the #2 Nintendo get a shot at the #1 non-Nintendo.

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Pac-Man also did really well in 2018!

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Leonhart4 posted...

The corona virus can't stop Game of the Decade at least

Let's hope so anyway

If anything, it could slightly help out vote totals as a lot more people will be at home instead of working or going to school, plus other outdoor activities are being heavily restricted due to this.
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