Board 8 > Game of the Decade 2 Oracle Challenge Discussion + Team Sign-Up Topic

(+) Yeah! (+)

@Team_Rocket_Elite I had a question, have you considered making the Oracle contest on more a curve, like the actual bracket? Making the later rounds worth slightly more points?

Maybe like... Round 2 matches = 1.02 times the amount of Round 1, Round 3 matches = 1.04 times the amount of Round 1, Round 4 matches = 1.06 times the amount of Round 1, etc?

Instead of having all matches be worth the same.

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so close to a perfect Skyrim pick

SuperNiceDog posted...

@Team_Rocket_Elite I had a question, have you considered making the Oracle contest on more a curve, like the actual bracket? Making the later rounds worth slightly more points?

Maybe like... Round 2 matches = 1.02 times the amount of Round 1, Round 3 matches = 1.04 times the amount of Round 1, Round 4 matches = 1.06 times the amount of Round 1, etc?

Instead of having all matches be worth the same.

in the normal bracket, later rounds are worth more because theyre harder to get right (first round matches have two potential winners, second round has four, etc)

oracle matches are all equally difficult so theres not really a reason to give later rounds more weight

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actually later rounds are easier because we've seen the entrants already

I scoring formula is pretty much tradition at this point. I don't see it ever changing as long as we keep doing 1v1 contests.
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SuperNiceDog posted...

I'm battling @Ringworm now in my region of the rankings

That's not exactly an achievement. I've probably come last in the Oracle more than anyone else.

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Today has easily been the best day of the contest for me, as I think I'm off by less than three points on all four matches combined. Feels good now that I seem to have the starting time down.

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Man, it's rough going on the leaderboard. I scored...

49.00
49.80
49.47
48.85

...and didn't move up a single spot.

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Camden posted...

Man, it's rough going on the leaderboard. I scored...

49.00
49.80
49.47
48.85

...and didn't move up a single spot.

2 days ago I lost 0.33 on Lefty
Yesterday I gained 0.33 on Lefty
Today I am projected to lose 0.33 on Lefty

If the gap was closer it would be more exciting

Oracle update for Day 16, Top 43 shown as well as teams:




@th3l3fty holds onto his lead, @Master_Moltar making moves, up to #3 now. @MetalmindStats had a tough day, falling from Rank 3rd on yesterdays ranking to his current ranking of 13th. He will have to make big plays to come back now.

My update: 34th to 33rd! Had a really lucky day especially with Mario Kart 8


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Goddamnit I need to just ignore the Spread Betting thing. My original pick for Skyrim was absolutely perfect, but when I picked Skyrim to cover without a second thought, I realized I needed to raise my prediction because I didn't have Skyrim covering.

Turns out, the line was way off base, and most people didn't have Skyrim covering it in their Oracles. Fucking hell.

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Forgot to change my safeties for yesterday. Would've upped my HG/SS pick from 76% to at least 80%, and Nier from 62% to a little higher, like 65%.

I've been all over the place on the rankings, as well. Started Round 1 at like #40-something, then I gradually moved up to #23, and now I'm back at #29.

Seriously, guys, how do you even get to the Top 10? I've been in the Oracle for a decade now and I've never managed to get there, as hard as I try every time.

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Advokaiser posted...

Forgot to change my safeties for yesterday. Would've upped my HG/SS pick from 76% to at least 80%, and Nier from 62% to a little higher, like 65%.

I've been all over the place on the rankings, as well. Started Round 1 at like #40-something, then I gradually moved up to #23, and now I'm back at #29.

Seriously, guys, how do you even get to the Top 10? I've been in the Oracle for a decade now and I've never managed to get there, as hard as I try every time.

I forgot to change my HG/SS safety pick also, stuck at 75%...

@Advokaiser I've only been doing Oracle since 2015("only") and I struggle. These guys are really hardcore. They do serious research and have crazy plans.

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gah I had rayman legends in oracle for awhile then switched... nuts. It might still lose tho

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I once managed to stay top 10 for about half of round one when I had the time to do a ton of research into old polls and extrapolate stats. I'm pretty sure that's what guys like lefty, Moltar and creativename are doing (although at this point they probably have so much experience they can guess more accurately than the rest of us).

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Kotetsu534 posted...

I once managed to stay top 10 for about half of round one when I had the time to do a ton of research into old polls and extrapolate stats. I'm pretty sure that's what guys like lefty, Moltar and creativename are doing (although at this point they probably have so much experience they can guess more accurately than the rest of us).

@Kotetsu534 You're in my battle zone hehehehehhe. The 25th-35th zone. Those guys also hide their numbers until the last second and post at like 4:59.56PM seconds 4 seconds before the deadline. I laugh when I see it. They also I think have plans to trick people(like me) into believing they're going with a number(post their "safeties"), then, before we can react, re-post new numbers at the last second

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SuperNiceDog posted...

gah I had rayman legends in oracle for awhile then switched... nuts. It might still lose tho

I got Rayman in my bracket and Celeste with slight win in Oracle. So either way I'm a winner...and a loser!

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Cavedweller2000 posted...

I got Rayman in my bracket and Celeste with slight win in Oracle. So either way I'm a winner...and a loser!

Nice, good move. I have Rayman in bracket also, it seemed like the obvious pick a month ago, before the "indie games can win" meme that took off in the past 2 weeks.

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@Advokaiser should we follow a new strategy for the remaining 60% of the contest?

Just pick what @hylianknight3 picks? Or go with whatever the spread betting lines are? ^_^

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SuperNiceDog posted...

@Advokaiser should we follow a new strategy for the remaining 60% of the contest?

Just pick what @hylianknight3 picks? Or go with whatever the spread betting lines are? ^_^

I think mimicking hylian might be the best bet to do better, although it would be 1._boring, and 2._borderline illegal.

So... Wait, while we're at it, what are the "spread betting lines"? I see a lot of people mentioning spread betting but I'm not sure what it's supposed to mean.

Either way, one thing I've learned is not to go too crazy off everyone's predictions. I've been doing a lot of these in R1, and I don't think a single one of them has paid off. Being too "safe" may give a slightly-better-yet-kinda-boring result.

Even then, if there's an identifiable pattern to games, it should be taken into account. Although indie games have been all over the place for the whole round, making it much, much harder to predict.

Those are my personal observations, but there are still a lot of variables involved yet to be analyzed.

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@Advokaiser here's the spread betting line for today, @MZero11 makes them:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78569319


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Oh thanks, man, I thought I had entered every contest yet.

Let's see what I can do.

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Not gonna risk missing matches this time so I'm putting safeties. Hopefully this won't happen next contest since it feels like I'm permanently stuck in the 50s right now even though I could be in the 20s/30s.

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Basically the spread is Oracle consensus with a few personal tweaks. I asked MZero a couple of days ago

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Advokaiser posted...

Oh thanks, man, I thought I had entered every contest yet.

Let's see what I can do.

yea spread betting is another fun contest.

So I think there's like 4 different ways to be involved during the contest season

1) Guru 2) Oracle 3) Spread betting 4) analysis crew guest writeups 5) stats topic trolling

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SuperNiceDog posted...

@Kotetsu534 You're in my battle zone hehehehehhe. The 25th-35th zone. Those guys also hide their numbers until the last second and post at like 4:59.56PM seconds 4 seconds before the deadline. I laugh when I see it. They also I think have plans to trick people(like me) into believing they're going with a number(post their "safeties"), then, before we can react, re-post new numbers at the last second

I think you're misinterpreting the point of safeties.

People call them safety picks as they are a safety net if you forget to change your picks or something prevents you from posting. Contests have been won and lost on people not having safeties in place and then not getting their pick in before deadline (or having a safety in and then posting just after deadline). Lefty would possibly have another title to his name if he believed in safeties.

Anyway, the way to do well is to just be consistently solid. Don't chase outlier picks in an attempt to pick up points. If you're consistent you find yourself climbing. All my worst finishes (where I actually predicted every match) came off the back of chasing points with outliers.

Camden posted...

Feels good now that I seem to have the starting time down.

Spoke too soon.

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On a bit of a roll, 5 / 8 of the last matches I have been top 12 - that never happens.

Lost more than enough in the other 3 to not make much difference overall. That is usual.

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Ringworm posted...

On a bit of a roll, 5 / 8 of the last matches I have been top 12 - that never happens.

Lost more than enough in the other 3 to not make much difference overall. That is usual.

The Unpredictable Wormhole, indeed.

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Today is horrible for me. And I had just moved up to 3rd too. Oh well I should stay in the top 5 at least.

Oracle Day 17 Update! @th3l3fty in the lead, @ShatteredElysium had the lead for a brief moment.




SND update, moved up from 34th to 31st heheheheh



@Cavedweller2000 you nervous?

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The guys that keep swapping for 1st and 2nd are on the same team. Not fair! -_-

Any way we can maybe get rankings of who has the most top picks and most top 5 picks?

Do we have the final scores for best year in gaming anywhere?

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creativename posted...

The guys that keep swapping for 1st and 2nd are on the same team. Not fair! -_-

Any way we can maybe get rankings of who has the most top picks and most top 5 picks?

Unless Horizon, RE and Bloodborne all start bleeding considerable amounts then Lefty is projected to put the hammer down and stretch out his lead by a decent chunk today.

creativename posted...

The guys that keep swapping for 1st and 2nd are on the same team. Not fair! -_-

Any way we can maybe get rankings of who has the most top picks and most top 5 picks?

Most Top Picks (After 68 matches)
1. Camden, Paratroopa1, UltimaterializerX - 4
4. Agent M, andylt, BlAcK TuRtLe, ctesjbuvf, hylianknight3, Keltiq, Kotetsu534, t_kizzle - 3

Most Top 5 Picks (After 68 matches)
1. Sir Chris - 11
2. BlAcK TuRtLe, MoogleKupo141, Paratroopa1 - 10
5. GTM, Magmortar75 - 9

I just checked through the Top 5 picks and I got 3 Top 5's in the first 5 matches (including 3 in 4).

I then proceeded to only get 2 Top 5s in the other 63 matches including a streak of 35 matches without one.

When I am right I am right.

When I am wrong I am wrong

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It's really frustrating to suck at your favorite side-contest...

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

When I am right I am right.

When I am wrong I am wrong

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Oracle update Day 18! @Advokaiser you're hanging in there, battling with me and @GTM .

@th3l3fty continues to lead, @Master_Moltar right on his heels:



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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78524618/936699814

ctesjbuvf posted
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 87.51

@KingMorgoth I think last time you helped fix errors like this. Can you help add that in? It wasn't picked up because of the missing %.
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how do I block pings
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th3l3fty posted...

how do I block pings

@th3l3fty

you can go to your privacy settings and change who can @ you
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New topic:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78580481
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Looks like according to Luster, a rally had a significant effect on the Bloodborne match, inflating it by 3%.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78576030/937345960

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78576030/937346455

hey TRE,

I got busy today and forgot to enter my oracle picks. is it possible to take my Crew picks for today? I try not to post them until after they get posted for the Crew. it's not like they're good picks anyway (they never are)

if so:

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 74.41%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 74.41%
Fallout: New Vegas - 54.56%
God of War - 78.67%


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Oracle update for Day 20!



I'm beating @LeonhartFour which is good. Still in 31st though

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Unfortunately, I can't accept that. The Oracle Challenge has always taken a hard stance against late submissions and I've turned down late predictions in the past.
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Uh congrats

I've never been great at the Oracle

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darn. okay, no worries.

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