Current Events > The United States is on track to hit 1.2 million cases confirmed at this rate.

(+) Yeah! (+)

To all the idiots asking why everybody is freaking out. Assuming a conservative estimate of a 20% a day increase in cases, and for the last week it's been closer to 30 iirc, that's 1.2 million cases after 30 days. With mortality rate of 3%, that's 40k dead.


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Weve had 7k global dead so far. We will not have 40k dead in the US in a month

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Marked for fake news

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I know math guys! 7 trillbillzion will get it by next friday!!1111

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What is this fuzzy math?

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RebelElite791 posted...

Weve had 7k global dead so far. We will not have 40k dead in the US in a month

That's just based on the current mortality rate. I can easily see it going that high without severe restrictions being imposed.

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EnterTheTekken posted...

What is this fuzzy math?

I bet my account that we'll be at 10k confirmed within 48 hours. 20k within a week. 50k within 2. Barring extreme measures like full on lockdown of course.

And again, all you have to do is multiply the current count by 1.2. Press enter 30 times, one for each day, and by day 30 we're currently on a conservative track to hit 1.2 million cases in 30 days.

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Makeveli_lives posted...

I bet my account that we'll be at 10k confirmed within 48 hours. 20k within a week. 50k within 2. Barring extreme measures like full on lockdown of course.

And again, all you have to do is multiply the current count by 1.2. Press enter 30 times, one for each day, and by day 30 we're currently on a conservative track to hit 1.2 million cases in 30 days.

10k in the US?

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RebelElite791 posted...

10k in the US?

Aye

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0/10
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you crazy, I would take that bet

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Makeveli_lives posted...

That's just based on the current mortality rate. I can easily see it going that high without severe restrictions being imposed.

what the fuck does this even mean lol

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100k reported cases in the US, I could totally see. But a million? In thirty days? Very unlikely. Now if it comes back with a vengeance in the fall, then that number becomes more plausible. Hopefully by then we'll be more prepared to slow its spread and accommodate sick people so the death toll will be much lower.

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its literally only 5k cases, relax fearmongers.

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Makeveli_lives posted...

That's just based on the current mortality rate. I can easily see it going that high without severe restrictions being imposed.

*looks around*

Is the closing of basically all "non-essential" places not severe enough to you?

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We won't even have a million testing kits by then

The mortality rate is so skewed.

the criteria to be tested is for people who are 60 and older and those with underlying health issues.

so of course the confirmed cases would have a higher mortality rate.

if this test was available to every person youd have higher confirmed cases by default and FAR less deaths in comparison.


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chrono625 posted...

The mortality rate is so skewed.

the criteria to be tested is for people who are 60 and older and those with underlying health issues.

so of course the confirmed cases would have a higher mortality rate.

if this test was available to every person youd have higher confirmed cases by default and FAR less deaths in comparison.

Sauce?

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There is no way this will hit a million cases with how serious the lockdown is. My town is in nowheresville USA and people still are trying to stay in.

Maybe at the end of it's life it will be in the millions, who knows....but I personally doubt it in 30 days.

Be careful with the stats on this btw.

the mortality rate statistic (I've seen 2-3%) is NOT ACCURATE at this stage of the diseases global development.

Many cases simply will not be reported and haven't been, and it's safe to assume people who get tested or go to the hospital and confirm it, already have particularly bad cases. This was pointed out in several articles but here's one:

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/early-mortality-rates-covid-19-misleading-experts/story?id=69477312

But it's much nicer for the media to have a nice whole number I'm sure.

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Smackems posted...

Sauce?

its common sense at this point just by virtue of the limited tests and the criteria for getting tested.

if only high risk individuals are being tested then of course the mortality rate would be higher.

if everyone could get tested, then that mortality % would most likely be under 1%.

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chrono625 posted...

its common sense at this point just by virtue of the limited tests and the criteria for getting tested.

if only high risk individuals are being tested then of course the mortality rate would be higher.

if everyone could get tested, then that mortality % would most likely be under 1%.

Then my mortality rate is wrong. We still on for over a million in 30 days at this rate.

PatrickMahomes posted...

*looks around*

Is the closing of basically all "non-essential" places not severe enough to you?

I see people everywhere fam. I got 2 jobs and both are still fucking open meaning I got no time off.

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chrono625 posted...

its common sense at this point just by virtue of the limited tests and the criteria for getting tested.

if only high risk individuals are being tested then of course the mortality rate would be higher.

if everyone could get tested, then that mortality % would most likely be under 1%.

yea majority of people don't get tested

but look at china. is was horrible there and yesterday they only had 13 new deaths. 39 new cases. granted i'm sure a lot of people have it and aren't tested.

it took a few months and we're looking at summer time to be putting us around the same thing. faster if we get more of a lockdown sooner than later. china put it off for way too long and it was out of hand by time they started to do anything about it.

PatrickMahomes posted...

*looks around*

Is the closing of basically all "non-essential" places not severe enough to you?

what has closed? basically nothing. the local pool store is still open. i don't call that essential. other than restaurants only doing carryout and i know most movie theaters concerts/sports are closed but other than that it's about it. not really any jobs have closed yet and mine won't.

creativeme posted...

what has closed? basically nothing. the local pool store is still open. i don't call that essential. other than restaurants only doing carryout and i know most movie theaters concerts/sports are closed but other than that it's about it. not really any jobs have closed yet and mine won't.

My entire state has closed short of food places and medical places essentially. State by state basis I suppose.

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Kazi1212 posted...

you crazy, I would take that bet

Not even 18 hours later and we're at just over 8 confirmed. The day isn't over, we got more coming tonight. Will probably end in mid 8000s.

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H1N1 had 140k to 500k deaths, and most dont even remember that.

Coronavirus has 8k deaths and its shutting down all of society around us.

I feel like this generation is just weak willed...

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But 40k is nothing. It's certainly not worth this stupid panic.
puppy posted...

I feel like this generation is just weak willed...

Facts.

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@Kazi1212

Pull up fam. Damn near 9.5k in what, 24 hours?

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Makeveli_lives posted...

@Kazi1212

Pull up fam. Damn near 9.5k in what, 24 hours?

damn

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Makeveli_lives posted...

@Kazi1212

Pull up fam. Damn near 9.5k in what, 24 hours?

That test rollout is doing its job.

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