Board 8 > Bernie Sanders drops out of the presidential race

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hockeydude15
04/08/20 9:48:19 PM
#101:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
what does it say, then?
That Biden (Batman) is the better candidate because he beat Bernie and will do better against Trump (terraria) even if Bernie (xenoblade 2) would have won in their match.

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Tom Bombadil
04/08/20 9:50:51 PM
#102:


BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Welcome to the first presidential candidate running while on life support! Bernie 2024

wait to make this joke until after Biden's done

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Wanglicious
04/08/20 10:02:30 PM
#103:


MoogleKupo141 posted...


biden supporter however are overwhelmingly vote blue no matter who types

to be serious for a sec, this has always been a lie. you'd have a sizable chunk not vote for bernie at all. i mean you had the mask fall off on national television, what else do you want.

bernie's issue is simple: his base doesn't vote. the "A can't be B so therefore he'd lose to C" argument falls flat on that one, it's just that the people who say they'llvote for him don't, making him ultimately a weaker candidate than is portrayed.

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red sox 777
04/08/20 10:15:46 PM
#104:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
yeah, it's really weird to me how people on the gamefaqs contests board continue to get this shit wrong. you guys should know better than anyone how this works.

like, let's hypothetically say terraria wins in today's matches. i think xenoblade chronicles 2 would beat it in round 2, but for that to happen, xenoblade 2 has to get past batman: arkham city first. but if xenoblade 2 loses to batman, that doesn't necessarily mean it's weaker than terraria.

same logic applies to this election. if bernie can't get past biden, that doesn't necessarily mean he wouldn't beat trump.

As someone with one of the highest post counts in Contest Stats and Discussion, who's followed these contests closely since 2003, let me tell you, the A.> B > C > A loop you're describing is vanishingly rare in our contests. So rare that creativename insists we've never seen proof of it happening. I think it does happen, but something like 1% of the time.

I thought in 2016 that the ABCA loop actually existed of Bernie > Trump > Hillary > Bernie due to Bernie's support being broader than Hillary but hardcore Democrats overwhelmingly favoring Hillary, but the Hillary/Bernie contest was actually very close. Here, Bernie lost to Biden by a mile once the field was down to 2 so it's just hard to see him being a stronger candidate in the general.

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red sox 777
04/08/20 10:17:47 PM
#105:


Plus, much of Bernie's support base that he had in 2016 has irrevocably gone over to Trump now. Many of them would have voted Bernie in 2016 but are entrenched Republicans now and won't come back even if Bernie is the nominee.

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foolm0r0n
04/08/20 10:22:54 PM
#106:


These are strange times, can't believe even Wang actually analyzed something properly.

Biden supporters absolutely would not have voted Bernie. They like the establishment and would vote for Trump or abstain or something. They know very well that their vote only counts when they have a choice, when they vote for who they want. They think you're too stupid to understand that, so they convince you to throw your vote away, and you do.


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iiaattgg
04/08/20 10:54:38 PM
#107:


hopefully this means I will never have to speak with another Bernie Bro for the rest of eternity!

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ChaosTonyV4
04/08/20 11:02:38 PM
#108:


foolm0r0n posted...
These are strange times, can't believe even Wang actually analyzed something properly.

Biden supporters absolutely would not have voted Bernie. They like the establishment and would vote for Trump or abstain or something. They know very well that their vote only counts when they have a choice, when they vote for who they want. They think you're too stupid to understand that, so they convince you to throw your vote away, and you do.

I mean this is highkey what Bernie supporters have been saying from the start, which is why all the finger-wagging at those who wont vote for Biden is just even more insufferable.


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MartinFF7
04/08/20 11:47:39 PM
#109:


iiaattgg posted...
hopefully this means I will never have to speak with another Bernie Bro for the rest of eternity!

give it a few years

https://i.imgur.com/d2DrwcI.jpg
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Suprak the Stud
04/08/20 11:52:37 PM
#110:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
I mean this is highkey what Bernie supporters have been saying from the start, which is why all the finger-wagging at those who wont vote for Biden is just even more insufferable.

Literally every poll ever taken has shown that Biden supporters were significantly more likely to vote for Sanders than Sanders supporters were likely to vote for Biden. Usually by margins of 10%+.

Which is why Sanders made more sense as the democratic nominee but hey what do I know >_>

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BlAcK TuRtLe
04/08/20 11:59:41 PM
#111:


MoogleKupo141 posted...
ive heard theres a substantial percentage of Bernie supporters who wont vote for Biden in the general election

biden supporter however are overwhelmingly vote blue no matter who types

so Biden in a general election gets you (Biden primary) + (Bernie primary * .9) or something

but Bernie in the general gets you something closer to (Biden primary) + (Bernie primary)

so hypothetically Bernie gets more votes

if Biden supporters really cared about beating Trump they would have voted Bernie instead. its a shame they let their distaste for Bernie got in the way of stopping a guy who puts kids in cages and cant handle a pandemic.
I really think that had Bernie won, it would have alienated the majority of dem supporters, most likely to the point of apathy rather than outright supporting Trump. I'd also hazaard that there are more moderates that would be put off with some of the shit Bernie is shovelling, than the few Bernie supporters that actually show up to vote that won't support anything against Trump

People, particularly young people on internet forums, have this odd echo chambery sense that "Bernie is wildly popular but the man is keeping him down!", but in the real world, a lot of people are put off with some of his policies, for better or worse. Now if the US didn't have a 2 party system, you could have a progressive party like the NDP in Canada that has just enough political power to push the good parts of their agenda, without having too much power to go full idiot with it.

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ChaosTonyV4
04/09/20 12:04:41 AM
#112:


Suprak the Stud posted...
Literally every poll ever taken has shown that Biden supporters were significantly more likely to vote for Sanders than Sanders supporters were likely to vote for Biden. Usually by margins of 10%+.

Which is why Sanders made more sense as the democratic nominee but hey what do I know >_>

I mean this was THE challenge, right?

You SAY youre blue no matter who, so prove it and support Bernie with me, because Im not.


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ChaosTonyV4
04/09/20 12:08:04 AM
#113:


BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
People, particularly young people on internet forums, have this odd echo chambery sense that "Bernie is wildly popular but the man is keeping him down!", but in the real world, a lot of people are put off with some of his policies, for better or worse. Now if the US didn't have a 2 party system, you could have a progressive party like the NDP in Canada that has just enough political power to push the good parts of their agenda, without having too much power to go full idiot with it.

This part is just completely and utterly wrong.

His policies are incredibly popular.

But the thing is, Democrats are so fucking sneaky, the average Dem voter thinks everyone is offering what Bernie is.

IIRC the polls in South Carolina and then Super Tuesday both showed Healthcare was the #1 issue, with Medicare for All having like 65% support, and yet Biden (who doesnt support M4A) won!


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BlAcK TuRtLe
04/09/20 2:01:37 AM
#114:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
This part is just completely and utterly wrong.

His policies are incredibly popular.

But the thing is, Democrats are so fucking sneaky, the average Dem voter thinks everyone is offering what Bernie is.

IIRC the polls in South Carolina and then Super Tuesday both showed Healthcare was the #1 issue, with Medicare for All having like 65% support, and yet Biden (who doesnt support M4A) won!
You Bernie bros can try and blame it on "the establishment" all you want, at the end of the day, Bernie bros were either too few, or too lazy to get out and vote for their guy. Even with all the hyperinflated support he got by being the outlier through most of the primaries, it wasn't enough to sway the sane moderates to vote for his Soviet style policies.

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Mr Lasastryke
04/09/20 7:08:49 AM
#115:


Wanglicious posted...
bernie's issue is simple: his base doesn't vote. the "A can't be B so therefore he'd lose to C" argument falls flat on that one, it's just that the people who say they'llvote for him don't, making him ultimately a weaker candidate than is portrayed.

didn't bernie get more votes than in 2016 (in the states that have had primaries and caucuses so far, obviously)? not sure what you're basing "his base doesn't vote" on. seems more likely that his base simply wasn't big enough to beat biden (as black turtle said).

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Mr Lasastryke
04/09/20 7:10:10 AM
#116:


BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
his Soviet style policies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztVMib1T4T4

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MoogleKupo141
04/09/20 7:10:36 AM
#117:


oppan soviet style

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BlAcK TuRtLe
04/09/20 9:07:42 AM
#118:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
didn't bernie get more votes than in 2016 (in the states that have had primaries and caucuses so far, obviously)? not sure what you're basing "his base doesn't vote" on. seems more likely that his base simply wasn't big enough to beat biden (as black turtle said).
I noticed something just browsing Popular on reddit the last few months, this strange minority of really excitable Bernie bros astroturfed the fuck out of popular social media to make it seem that certain candidates, particularly Bernie and Yang, were much more popular than the actual election results show.

I'm sure 95% of the people on "r/OurPresident" did end up voting

What makes me feel sorry for these people, is how in every news post about Bernie, they would all chime in about how they were going to donate another $1000 to his campaign. Then I realize, these are the same idiots that complain about having to pay back student loans.

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iiaattgg
04/09/20 9:23:29 AM
#119:


BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
I noticed something just browsing Popular on reddit the last few months, this strange minority of really excitable Bernie bros astroturfed the fuck out of popular social media to make it seem that certain candidates, particularly Bernie and Yang, were much more popular than the actual election results show.

I'm sure 95% of the people on "r/OurPresident" did end up voting

What makes me feel sorry for these people, is how in every news post about Bernie, they would all chime in about how they were going to donate another $1000 to his campaign. Then I realize, these are the same idiots that complain about having to pay back student loans.
yeah they definitely live in a bubble. if you spent 4 seconds on sites like that you would think BS was the second coming of jesus christ and was going to sweep the election. you would think no one likes biden and everyone thinks trump is awful.

for those of us who have a relationship with reality, BS losing is not some heartbreaking shock. biden winning was expected. trump winning again will not be a shock, just as it was not in 2016

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Lightning Strikes
04/09/20 9:38:16 AM
#120:


Imagine actually believing that Bernie Sanders, a cookie-cutter social democrat with barely a socialist bone in his body, has "Soviet style policies". Lunacy.

And this is why America is trapped with the right. McCarthy really did a number on your entire society.

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pyresword
04/09/20 11:22:45 AM
#121:


Bernie describes himself as a socialist very frequently, so it's hard for me to blame anybody else for that impression even if I don't necessarily disagree with your assessment of his ideology.
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Mr Lasastryke
04/09/20 6:36:58 PM
#122:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
i was wondering why sephy wasn't posting in this topic anymore but he got banned again

lol

correction: he was suspended

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foolm0r0n
04/09/20 6:46:40 PM
#123:


Mr Lasastryke posted...
didn't bernie get more votes than in 2016 (in the states that have had primaries and caucuses so far, obviously)? not sure what you're basing "his base doesn't vote" on. seems more likely that his base simply wasn't big enough to beat biden (as black turtle said).
The fact that the turnout was like 20% for his strongest age group. It was low in 2016 also, so even if it's better now it's still not good.

The fallacy though is that people are looking at a 20% young turnout for Bernie vs a 60% old turnout for Biden and saying Biden is stronger. But in the general election, there's not going to be such a difference. It will be 60% from all age groups, otherwise Trump definitely wins no matter what.

So the question should first be, who is the candidate that can best get 60%+ turnout in the general, and after that we can compare who would be stronger with all that turnout. The DNC's theory (which is probably right) is that even with Bernie, the young turnout won't be MUCH higher, and many old voters will vote Trump or abstain. But with Biden, all the oldies stay, and the weak #NeverBiden kids will still be convinced to turn out.

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ChaosTonyV4
04/09/20 6:58:39 PM
#124:


foolm0r0n posted...
But with Biden, all the oldies stay, and the weak #NeverBiden kids will still be convinced to turn out.

How could you possibly believe this

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UshiromiyaEva
04/09/20 7:16:06 PM
#125:


Imagine thinking younger Bernie fans are gonna all turn out for Biden.

That attitude is probably held by a lot of his staffers, and they're in for a rough awakening.
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red13n
04/09/20 7:18:45 PM
#126:


The younger crowd only turned out in slightly more numbers for Bernie than usual. I'm pretty sure most people are convinced they arent going to show up as they have continued to show they are apt to do.

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agesboy
04/09/20 7:23:46 PM
#127:


if bernie was the nominee, all the media has to do is tell people bernie is good for them and they'll fall in line

that will not work the other way nearly as well because bernie supporters fundamentally don't trust the media nearly as much as centrists do

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red13n
04/09/20 7:29:49 PM
#128:


agesboy posted...
if bernie was the nominee, all the media has to do is tell people bernie is good for them and they'll fall in line

that will not work the other way nearly as well because bernie supporters fundamentally don't trust the media nearly as much as centrists do

You realize the media is going to be 24/7 Trump coverage no matter what?

Trump is ratings. There is no Fox News equivalent on the left.

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foolm0r0n
04/09/20 8:39:08 PM
#129:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
How could you possibly believe this

UshiromiyaEva posted...
Imagine thinking younger Bernie fans are gonna all turn out for Biden.
Not all, just a large enough % that the boost Bernie would bring is not worth it. How is that so impossible to believe?

To be clear I don't think it's a good strategy at all. I think it would be extremely easy for Bernie to win the old people vote and use momentum to grow a huge base, plus have an actual disarming ability against Trump. But looking at just turnout numbers NOW, it's really easy to see how you could get similar amounts with Biden, without having to capitulate to the anti-establishment guy.

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