Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1347

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

GSC barely exceeded MM's result on Chrono Cross against ADVANCE WARS.

You have this all wrong. GSC's faced Mario Kart Wii that round, scoring ~3% more than Majora's Mask against Chrono Cross, though ~3% worse than its own match against Advance Wars.

Also, I indeed can't fairly rule out Nier beating HGSS, because we still don't have a good idea of where HGSS stands. However, what I can say is that this result leaves Nier relying on its opposition's weakness rather than its own strength, which is never the right way to head into a debatable match.

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Here's hoping having Mario Kart today gets me just a little bit closer to theleaderboard. I've gotten 8 points some times in a row now basically without getting closer. Sonic helped a little, but wasn't much.

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MetalmindStats posted...

Certainly, I'm thinking this is the case; to put Nier and Divinity's results here in perspective, Nier would get 81% on Hearthstone through Divinity. That's barely ahead of what Suikoden II would score based on 2015 stats, which should be perfectly reliable since both games lost to Ocarina. Maybe there's a case to be had that Hearthstone scored some apathy votes this time around to inflate its standing. However, I'm inclined to think Ocarina was actually a pretty good opponent for Hearthstone given how badly it was antivoted in the rest of its 2015 matches, plus Hearthstone has good reason to have dropped off since then.

While we're on the subject of gauging Nier via Hearthstone, I wanted to springboard on some earlier posts about the juxtaposition of Nier's two matches. I mentioned earlier that Nier gets 81% on Hearthstone extrapolated through Divinity; when pegged through Bayonetta 2 using 2015 x-stats, however, Nier would almost break 85% on Hearthstone.

In other words, it seems like MechanicalWall was actually right about Nier SFFing Bayonetta 2 in that match, and that extrapolation even gives us an approximate gauge for how much SFF Nier scored. Frankly, that baffles me, considering the games' fundamental differences and the fact that they share zero platforms. I guess their Platinum characteristics resulted in significantly overlapping fanbases despite the aforementioned points.

Also worth keeping in mind that Hearthstone's xstats come directly through a massive blowout from OoT to the tune of 91%, so these stats need to be taken with a grain of salt as they can be extremely sensitive to any bit of noise. We've already seen in 2018 that exact rematches can have 1-2% fluctuations even a couple days later and that's normally fine when the percentages are close to 50%. However, at the extreme end, the difference between OoT scoring 89% and 91% on Hearthstone is massive for Hearthstone's xstats.

That said Divinity doing almost as well as Bayonetta 2 on Nier doesn't really pass the smell test for me, so there's probably some degree of SFF in the Bayo/Nier match.

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Safer_777 posted...

@ShortReplies It means how much each game would score against the strongest one of the division. For example Dark Souls has 50 since if it would go against iself it would score 50-50 and Hotline Miami has 17. That means that Dark Souls-Hotline Miami match would end around 83-17

So checked the results. As expected obviously.

Thanks for explaining, they already explained it earlier. I appreciate your comment TY again.

MetalmindStats posted...

You have this all wrong. GSC's faced Mario Kart Wii that round, scoring ~3% more than Majora's Mask against Chrono Cross, though ~3% worse than its own match against Advance Wars.

Also, I indeed can't fairly rule out Nier beating HGSS, because we still don't have a good idea of where HGSS stands. However, what I can say is that this result leaves Nier relying on its opposition's weakness rather than its own strength, which is never the right way to head into a debatable match.

Sorry I forgot what GSC's R2 opponent was in 2010.

Plugging Nier into the 2015 stats has it getting ~24% on Ocarina, which sounds about right.

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This performance basically guarantees Hearthstone won't be dead last in the X-Stats.
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You hate to see that

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I was excited when I checked and saw that HG/SS tanked a lot of percentage overnight

then I looked and saw Automata did too
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Depends on that rally. It's been on top all day.

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Nier probably tanked a bit more than normal because of the rally. like an extra 1% or so.

i'd take divinity 2 over rayman anyways so this isn't too bad. i honestly feel like Nier vs Pokemon will end up coming down to what manages to have a succesful rally. its close enough that that will be decisive.

Okay, plugging Nier into the 2015 stats through Hearthstone puts it roughly on Suikoden II's level, and slightly weaker than Donkey Kong Country 2. I can actually kind of buy that.

Through Bayonetta 2 though it's worth like 43% on Metal Gear Solid which seems horribly out of whack with that. Looks like the Round 1 result was SFF, or maybe Bayonetta 2 somehow lost a step between contests. Which makes no sense given Bayo herself is a decent midcarder now.

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hearthstone is likely to be stronger now though

just about everyone has heard of hearthstone by now. and for better or worse, it has been an influential game in the decade. back in 2015, considering this site's demographic, it might have been a "what even is that?" game for most of the voter base. which is probably why it was dead last in the stats

i dont believe Nier is only suikoden 2 level. that'd still leave it as basically fodder in the grand scheme of these contests.

Safer_777 posted...

It means how much each game would score against the strongest one of the division.

So Dark Souls would be at around 45 because of the The Last of Us, interesting
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It's nice to be so directly vindicated after being called crazy for claiming potential Platinum SFF. Thank you

Anyway after waking up and seeing that Skyrim has BLED percentage instead of gaining it has made my main takeaway of today's matches become:

Praise Geraldo

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MechanicalWall posted...

It's nice to be so directly vindicated after being called crazy for claiming potential Platinum SFF. Thank you

Anyway after waking up and seeing that Skyrim has BLED percentage instead of gaining it has made my main takeaway of today's matches become:

Praise Geraldo

I didn't say you were crazy! I just said it's too early to be claiming it.

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btw today's match has about 1300 more votes compared to yesterday's so far

dunno how much of that is the divinity rally, but there's something to think about.

I wasn't referring to you Leon, what you said was fair too

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Okay, setting Wind Waker and Twilight Princess equal in 2015 and taking all the associated matches at face value, Skyrim is projected to get 33% on FFVII. This result on Journey projects Skyrim to get 31%. So this MAY not be that bad of a result for Skyrim.

Again though, you have to take all the matches in question at face value. FFVI/FFVII took place on the same day as a Melee rally and Skyrim/SM64 took place on the same day as an Undertale rally so that might be dangerous.

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I don't know how much Skyrim's X-stat reflects its proximity to that rally, but I remember at the time being almost certain that it was the primary beneficiary of it in the SM64 match, and that was probably the consensus.

That, and Skyrim's main problem in this contest is that if wants to make finals, it has to at minimum match its 2015 strength to hold off Witcher's meteroic rise, and honestly probably has to be a bit stronger.

Like I said earlier itt, Skyrim being three or four points weaker in 2020 would not be surprising at all, and honestly is what I expected after 5 years of Bethesda shit-flinging.

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Admittedly there's a reason I don't even have Skyrim in the semis!

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This entire division just looks awful. Nier and Skyrim for obvious reasons, but this Pokemon performance is pretty underwhelming tbh, just good in comparison because Nier's looking even worse.

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I was waffling on the Skyrim/Dark Souls/Witcher trio throughout the bracket period. Ultimately decided to stick with Skyrim and regretted it as soon as I saw what Witcher did in R1. At this point, the main goal for Skyrim backers should be to merely visit the Top 50, because we ain't finishing there.

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I am for Pokemanz winning. But why only one Pokeymannz game and a remake at that? Strange.

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So 1000 theoretical votes from a Divinity rally means NieR doesn't look as awful as we thought it did. My NieR > Pokemon faith is still there.

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Even hanging 45% on real Nintendo would be a huge victory for Nier and 2B (2B couldn't quite reach that mark against Bowser, though she did admirably for herself). I never even considered taking it for the upset.

Pokemon > Skyrim is the division upset I'm focusing on.

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i doubt that diviniy rally favors pokemon at all. nier is in trouble

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That sounds reasonable too. There's been about 1.5-2k online constantly and it has been there on first page of the subreddit the whole match.

I don't see why it would favor Rayman more than Pokmon.

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NieR was looking bad against Divinity before that rally showed up. If I remember correctly it was already under 70 right when I went to sleep.

But I don't really know man. Like I've said a million times, this Division sucks and we're not getting good readings on the top seeds because their opponents suck. My gut tells me Pokemon is looking better than Nier but that's because I don't rate Divinity at all after its hearthstone match and the fact it comes from a genre that always does bad here (CRPG, not just RPG)

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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Even hanging 45% on real Nintendo would be a huge victory for Nier and 2B (2B couldn't quite reach that mark against Bowser, though she did admirably for herself). I never even considered taking it for the upset.

Pokemon > Skyrim is the division upset I'm focusing on.

Still not worried about Pokemon winning that one.

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MechanicalWall posted...

NieR was looking bad against Divinity before that rally showed up. If I remember correctly it was already under 70 right when I went to sleep.

It was posted literally 7 minutes into the match.

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ctesjbuvf posted...

It was posted literally 7 minutes into the match.

But did anyone see it?

You know how Reddit works

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MechanicalWall posted...

But did anyone see it?

You know how Reddit works

It's been mentioned multiple times that it's been near the top the whole match.

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It has like 55ish upvotes which translates to a couple hundred views, but that doesn't mean it has any follow-thru

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This one?

https://www.reddit.com/r/DivinityOriginalSin/comments/g3xytf/gamefaqs_is_doing_a_game_of_the_decade_contest/

57 upvotes over the course of 15 hours? I don't doubt it's generating more traffic than the upvotes imply but Bloodborne's rally was at 700+ and it only moved the needle 2 or 3 percent.

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Sorry I forgot what GSC's R2 opponent was in 2010.

It's not just that; it's also that I really wouldn't use the word barely to describe a 3.5% difference in these contests.

Sharinnegan posted...

back in 2015, considering this site's demographic, it might have been a "what even is that?" game for most of the voter base.

You're grossly underestimating the automatic attention the Blizzard name still musters to this day, and heck the Warcraft brand in particular while we're at it. Next, are you going to try claiming a huge chunk of GameFAQs didn't know the first thing about Overwatch 1.5 years after its release?

Sharinnegan posted...

i dont believe Nier is only suikoden 2 level. that'd still leave it as basically fodder in the grand scheme of these contests.

Well, Shadow of the Colossus was the popular pre-contest comparison for Nier's unique fanbase, nature as a game, and general trajectory. With that in mind, it's easy to forget that SotC didn't look so hot itself when it was nearly doubled by RE4 and KH2 in its first contest - also a bit over 3 years after its release.

davidponte posted...

So 1000 theoretical votes from a Divinity rally means NieR doesn't look as awful as we thought it did.

I find that a suspiciously high number considering it's at a fraction of Bloodborne's 800-upvote rally (on a similarly active subreddit), which only gave it about 2,000 votes across its whole match. Maybe Divinity has a better follow-through rate, but not by enough to matter. It's worth noting that there's also been a mildly successful FF14 rally with barely a third of the Divinity rally's upvotes, but on a subreddit with 5x the active users - and said rally seems to favor Nier over Divinity.

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I didn't check 7 minutes into the match, but it's been close enough to the whole match.

No, we'll have to see votals to determine effect I suppose, upvotes aren't the best way to determine either. There are currently about 1400 more votes than this point of the day yesterday, but basically the same amount as two days ago.

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IS there a rally going on? For which game?

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Rolycoly posted...

I find that a suspiciously high number considering it's at a fraction of Bloodborne's 800-upvote rally (on a similarly active subreddit), which only gave it about 2,000 votes across its whole match. Maybe Divinity has a better follow-through rate, but not by enough to matter. It's worth noting that there's also been a mildly successful FF14 rally with barely a third of the Divinity rally's upvotes, but on a subreddit with 5x the active users - and said rally seems to favor Nier over Divinity.

I'm basing the number on the fact that we are over 1000 votes ahead of where we were during yesterday's matches. I haven't actually looked at any of the rallies.

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I know that, but my point is this sub isn't generating the kind of rally that makes Nier look good.

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Though Pokemon has also fallen a ton since its peak so maybe that won't matter

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The rally may also be negatively affecting Pokemon, however that means we can't really have it both ways.

Either the rally has had an impact, which is the reasoning for Pokemon dropping and Nier being below 70%, or the rally has had a negligible impact, which means Nier isn't particularly strong, but also that Pokemon has organically dropped and also doesn't look as strong as it did last night.

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squexa posted...

This entire division just looks awful. Nier and Skyrim for obvious reasons, but this Pokemon performance is pretty underwhelming tbh, just good in comparison because Nier's looking even worse.

The division was an eyesore from day one. Should've swapped out Nier for another 2/3 seed to make the division final interesting.

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I don't see why Divinity fans would have any real favorite between Rayman and Pokemon unless they're massive contrarians and just antivoting Pokemon cause it's popular

... which considering what I know about CRPG fans, might actually be the case.

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Rayman struggled with an indie game in Round 1.

You mean "upset a favored and higher-seeded indie game in Round 1."

Love how people are acting like Rayman had that one in the bag all along.

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davidponte posted...

The rally may also be negatively affecting Pokemon, however that means we can't really have it both ways.

Either the rally has had an impact, which is the reasoning for Pokemon dropping and Nier being below 70%, or the rally has had a negligible impact, which means Nier isn't particularly strong, but also that Pokemon has organically dropped and also doesn't look as strong as it did last night.

Some combination is possible too though. Pokemon dropping a bit during the match last time as well and Rayman did the opposite. It's could be natural trends. Mostly guessing this because I don't see at all why a Divinity rally should favor Rayman over Pokmon that one sided.

Not saying rallies couldn't be negatively influencing Pokmon. My honest best guess is that the rally is affecting NieR by a bit and not affecting Pokemon.

Doesn't mean Pokmon can't defeat NieR at all though.

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this match is now 1500 votes ahead of yesterday

rally definitely had an impact.

and yea, despite the low upvotes that topic has been in the front page forever. so it might not be too behind the bloodborne rally in total votes brought in.

Well, the Fallout rally definitely favored Stardew Valley over Galaxy 2, so I could see people just being anti-Nintendo in principle.

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I think the weirdness is all Divinity. Highly critically acclaimed game that was one of the few games I never heard of before?

Could produce a very loyal set of voters that can hold strong things down more than we expect, but completely unable to blow out fodder because it has a low ceiling?

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squexa posted...

This entire division just looks awful. Nier and Skyrim for obvious reasons, but this Pokemon performance is pretty underwhelming tbh, just good in comparison because Nier's looking even worse.

squexa posted...

This entire division just looks awful. Nier and Skyrim for obvious reasons, but this Pokemon performance is pretty underwhelming tbh, just good in comparison because Nier's looking even worse.

i dont understand posts like these. Why and how is nier awful? Its just baseless and premature on results people are just guessing with.

its a new game with unknown strength and were putting it in the conversation of maybe beating Pokemon

The only game that looks Awful is Skyrim.

A pokemon remake was never going to be that strong.


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