Board 8 > Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6

(+) Yeah! (+)

just going to start predicting 50 and 100 % for every match now

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Mac Arrowny posted...

Not gonna be much SFF here. What we see is going to be only a couple percent below XBC's natural strength, at most.

Though the comparison between XBC and LBW is interesting. Who do people take in that match?

Nintendo is such a closed ecosystem that I think all their first party games SFF each other to some degree. If Xenoblade is primarily a handheld series like Golden Sun and Pokemon, I'd give it more of a chance, but I think there's probably going to be at least some SFF between Xenoblade and Smash.

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My weird logic tells me that BotW is gonna perform better against ME2 than against DQXI.

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I dunno. I'm just not totally sure there's a lot of SFF here. I'm probably wrong, but we'll see!

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jrpg fans will be voting for xenoblade. i don't think there will be sff

I could see Smash going big for sure but I kept thinking that previous runs like the one Xenoblade has now points to a bandwagon.

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This might get ugly or Xenoblade could hang tight -- it's hard to say how much of the audience is from the Square side of the house, and how much is from Nintendo.

Xeno hasn't been Square since Gears, though.

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by Square I just mean RPG. though Xeno has Square roots that run pretty deep amongst the right people.

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i think XB is gonna get destroyed.

Nintendo SFF is everywhere where there might be a connection. we've seen Sonic and his pals and games constantly fold to nintendo SFF.

r s f f

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Good grief, what happened to FF15?

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KamikazePotato posted...

Good grief, what happened to FF15?

its turbotrash.

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aw darn, the board vote was super kind to Xenoblade (which makes sense)

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Man people expected Xenoblade to be a lot stronger than Zelda, huh.

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also you better believe i'm saying this now to jinx ultimate so xenoblade goes up a lot from here

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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

also you better believe i'm saying this now to jinx ultimate so xenoblade goes up a lot from here

Muchos gracias.

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so, uh

Pokemon HG/SS
Xenoblade

Super Mario Galaxy 2
The Last of Us

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ya go my xenoblade

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I'll be extremely happy if Xenoblade stays anywhere near this percentage. Resisting SFF better than a reasonably strong Zelda game is a pretty big deal.

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it probably gets above 40. Smash bleeds percentage every match, even against Mario.

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Oh hey looks like I was right!

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transience posted...

so, uh

Pokemon HG/SS
Xenoblade

Super Mario Galaxy 2
The Last of Us

Xenoblade > SMG2
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transcience posted...

it probably gets above 40. Smash bleeds percentage every match, even against Mario.

Yeah, Smash apparently has the worst Euro vote of any Nintendo series, for whatever the reason.

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European Smashers mad that their players can never make PGR because they can't go to American OR Japanese tournaments where all the top players are

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Leonhart4 posted...

Yeah, Smash apparently has the worst Euro vote of any Nintendo series, for whatever the reason.

You could also say it has the best America vote.
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well it's all a matter of perspective, of course

Smash got 58% in America and 48% in the UK
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Previous Results: Dark Souls does as expected on TLOU, and Skyrim actually impresses us for once and makes HG/SS look like MK8

Crew Predictions: 113/120

Next Round Thoughts: Of course Skyrim would show up to the contest right before it gets its most debated match yet. You can definitely make a case for both games here.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 112
Kleenex: 112
Leonhart: 107
transience: 106
Guest: 97

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Dark Souls, and Moltar gets the point for Skyrim.

Moltar: 34
transience: 26
Kleenex: 19
Leonhart: 19
Guest: 18 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (3), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall (2), Kotetsu, pjbasis, Nintendogs, SuperNiceDog, FFDragon, Sir Chris, DoctorJimmy)

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Round 5 The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs. Persona 5

Moltars Analysis

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt
Round 1 84.07% vs. Assassin's Creed Odyssey
Round 2 78.40% vs. Mass Effect 3
Round 3 60.60% vs. Super Mario Galaxy 2
Round 4 64.48% vs. God of War

Persona 5
Round 1 78.29% vs. Heavy Rain
Round 2 71.06% vs. Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag
Round 3 67.89% vs. Sonic Mania
Round 4 57.47% vs. Portal 2

Well, if anything is going to be able to beat Witcher before it gets to the finals, its looking to be this anime rpg. Witcher has overperformed now against all three of the western games it has faced. Skyrim or Dark Souls might be able to challenge it, but even those competitors look like free real estate for Witcher.

Persona has a shot, but admittedly its an outside shot. 57% on Portal is good, but just not a strong enough performance to be a favorite in this match.

The Galaxy 2 performance is the one to look at here, because like it, Persona should also have a more varied audience than the other western games Witcher has been facing. I dont think P5 could also 60/40 Galaxy 2 though. Looking at 2015 stats, P5 might not even be far above Mario Galaxy 2 based off the Portal match.

So yeah, like I said, P5s got an outside shot, but I havent seen any reason to think Witcher drops this match.

Moltars Bracket: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt

Moltars Prediction: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt 57%

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transiences Analysis

I'm excited to see the big four from the bottom half finally match up, after what feels like years of speculation. The bottom 64 games honestly only has four games that belong in a big boy game contest and we get all of them here, because the seeding was honestly too good this time around.

Smash/Xenoblade is convincing me that Persona 5 is pretty legit, since it suggests that Persona 4 could pull at least 40% or so. That's assuming that there isn't any SFF here, because if there is, yikes. Persona 5 does seem to be a step up from 4, though like I've said in other writeups, I think the gap is much smaller than others.

I've thought for a while that Witcher is the clear #2 in this contest, ahead of Smash, so I don't think it's likely to be at risk of dropping this match here. That said, I wouldn't be absolutely surprised if it actually got exposed here. By "exposed" I don't necessarily mean that it's in danger of losing -- though I do see that as a possible outcome -- but people are talking about Witcher like it's some kind of killer because it got 60% on Galaxy 2 and 64% on God of War, and I just don't feel that. Those games don't really belong in a big boy contest.

Persona 5 does, and while neither P5 or Dark Souls have been tested enough to draw any solid conclusions, I do think P5 is stronger than Dark Souls. So I guess I see this match as being kinda close, with P5 probably putting a real score in the first five minutes? Then again, bracket voting, so who knows! Let's hope that a crew curse does the trick here.

transience's prediction: The Witcher 3 with 54.49%

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Leonharts Analysis

Witcher 3 has been an absolute monster in three of the first four rounds. The one time it merely looked good was against Super Mario Galaxy 2, the only non-western game its faced until now. Im really curious to see what it does against Persona 5 here. This match should give us a better idea of how good both of these games are. Its hard to picture Witcher 3 actually dropping this, but I do wonder how close Persona 5 will get.

If you compare each of the matches that actually mean something, Witcher 3 got 60% on Super Mario Galaxy 2 and Persona 5 got 57% on Portal 2 (which translates to 60% on Red Dead Redemption 2). Id take Galaxy 2 over Portal 2, perhaps with a similar margin to what Persona 5 ended up getting, actually. To me, the baseline expectation for Witcher 3 is 60/40 to remain the clear favorite over Skyrim (or Dark Souls, whatever). If it cant even hit 55% here, that would actually give me some cause for concern.

Leonharts Vote: Persona 5

Leonharts Prediction: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt with 59.15%

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Kleenexs Analysis

I dont foresee too much funny business happening in this match. Persona 5 ended up looking pretty decent against Portal 2 last round, but like...come on. The Witcher has been tearing up its competition every round, and nothing Persona has done up to this point can really hold a candle to it. Its really hard to find an angle where Persona has a shot here. Maybe it can over perform slightly? But thats about the best-case scenario.

Kleenexs Prediction: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt with 56.50%

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Guests Analysis Dr Football

So here was the first of the two major upsets Persona was gonna pull off in my bracket to lead me to repeat guru glory. I like looking for an upset like this and going into the contest it didnt feel like too much of a reach. My logic was roughly

1)Persona 4 wasnt terribly far behind Witcher in the 2015 xstats
2)Persona 5 should be stronger.
3)Persona 5 Royal will have come out mid-contest and given it another boost.

Now the biggest fault in my logic was hoping Witcher 3 didnt improve over the last few years despite having a few reasons to do so. And as the contest went on it became clear Witcher 3 is definitely improved

So now the only hope is either that Witcher is overperforming due to Western SFF and will wither against Persona, and/or that the mini Persona 4 Golden rally we had comes back with a vengeance.

I definitely think theres a nonzero chance of that happening, but not enough to stick with my bracket (sorry supernicedog)

The Witcher 3 with 55.97%
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Crew Consensus: Life wont change for Persona 5

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If a Hentai Rally causes Witcher 3 to lose I will be against rallies from now on.

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Witcher will probably counter-rally in that case.

Two East vs. West matches tomorrow!

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Two East vs. West matches tomorrow!

Three games with identical aesthetics and the one with the big headed cartoon cat

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Also
Master Moltar posted...

the baseline expectation for Witcher 3 is 60/40 to remain the clear favorite over Skyrim

That's a big ask, especially considering that would imply P5 is only a little better than stuff like MK8 and HGSS. Witcher definitely doesn't need 60% here to be the favorite.

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It's ok @Dr_Football we are probably done today... we had a good run

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I think favorite status depends on both matches. Persona 5 and Dark Souls are probably pretty close, so whoever gets the higher percentage is probably going in ahead.

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MechanicalWall posted...

Also

That's a big ask, especially considering that would imply P5 is only a little better than stuff like MK8 and HGSS. Witcher definitely doesn't need 60% here to be the favorite.

That's only if you think Witcher 3 and Skyrim are peers. At this point, I don't. Persona 5 basically being Galaxy 2's equal is no shame to P5.

I think Witcher 3 can still beat Skyrim even if it doesn't get to 60. I just think 60 would basically remove all doubt.

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Round 5 Dark Souls vs. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim

Moltars Analysis

Dark Souls
Round 1 82.99% vs. Hotline Miami
Round 2 77.34% vs. Rocket League
Round 3 63.29% vs. Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain
Round 4 58.30% vs. The Last of Us

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
Round 1 84.00% vs. Subnautica
Round 2 74.98% vs. Journey
Round 3 60.90% vs. Mario Kart 8
Round 4 59.82% vs. Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version

Not gonna lie, this was looking pretty rough for Skyrim before last round. Ignoring fodder blowouts, Dark Souls out-doing its 2015 numbers on MGSV by 8% looked really good compared to 61% on Mario Kart 8.

But now its looking like MK8 is just a lot better than most of us thought, which makes some sense considering how easy it coasted to Round 3. 60% on HG/SS looks very good to me, especially when the other remakes and ports havent done way worse than their original versions in this contest. With Dark Souls good, but not great, performance against TLOU, we might have a match here.

While these games look close on paper, the final result may not be if this ~*western SFF*~ rears its head here. Both games are beloved and very well-respected, as well as two of the strongest non-Japanese games on the site. They definitely share a large audience, but is one so overwhelmingly favored that it can make the other look bad? I dont think so.

Going back to the TLOU match, the fact that Dark Souls couldnt go big there is a bit worrying. If it cant flex on TLOU, what makes me think it can pull rank on Skyrim? Skyrim has historically been the stronger game, its the more GameFAQs game, and this isnt some sort of weird Nintendo hierarchy case. I just havent seen a rock-solid reason to take Dark Souls in this match.

So yeah, give me Skyrim with some room to spare.

Moltars Bracket: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim

Moltars Prediction: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 55%

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transiences Analysis

I've been on record for a while for not really believing in Dark Souls, and also not really believing in a Skyrim deboost. People have torn down Skyrim's name based on a Nintendo game that's really unproven, and you just don't blow well-known Nintendo games out unless you're Nintendo yourself. This site has too many people that play only Nintendo games for that to be a thing.

Skyrim turned around and got that same percentage on a Pokemon game, one that probably acts more like a modern Pokemon than a classic one, but beating anything Pokemon with 60% is a good result in this contest. I trust a result on Pokemon more than I do Mario Kart which just has no data to back it up. Mario Kart might be the biggest surprise of this contest, and if it didn't run into a top 5 game like Skyrim so early in the bracket, it could have really done some damage. Imagine it in division 2 alongside Bloodborne and FE Awakening, or in Bioshock Infinite's place in division 7. It could have been a real bracket buster.

No, the real reason that Skyrim is questioned so hard is that Witcher has looked like a killer -- something that was highly speculated on pre-contest! It isn't a surprise that it looks so good. Skyrim probably isn't riding high like it was in 2011-2012, but I don't think anyone thought it was since it barely beat Metroid Prime in 2015. It's probably still around that same range, maybe slightly below but nothing super notable.

Dark Souls, on the other hand, has had one of the more pathetic divisions of all time. It's done what it needed to do to look decent, but 63% on MGS5 doesn't really impress me, and 58% on Last of Us really isn't all that great either.

(I don't believe in some 'controversy factor' hobbling Last of Us, but if you want to believe in such a thing, that just makes Dark Souls look worse. For the record, I don't think there's some goofy 'western SFF' with God of War/Witcher, either. Next you'll tell me there's 'japanese SFF' with BOTW/FF15. Overlap? Sure, because people play more than one video game in their lifetimes, but that's part and parcel of a popularity contest.)

I'd pick Pokemon over Last of Us, and I'd probably pick Mario Kart too given what we've seen out of Last of Us. Mario Kart 8 probably beats Xenoblade 2 without too much trouble.

I've seen a lot of doomsayers who talk a big game with Dark Souls, something about 'wrpg hierarchy', whatever that means, and I just don't see it. Skyrim's results are better, it's more this site's kind of game, and even without the Pokemon result I would have picked it here. I think Skyrim legitimizes itself here as a candidate to challenge Witcher. It shouldn't be the favourite, but it's not totally out of it yet.

transience's prediction: Skyrim with 55.52%

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Leonharts Analysis

I know a lot of people have been pushing for Dark Souls to win here, but Ive never really bought into it. I feel like the main result to hold against Skyrim is the Journey one, but after seeing all the games that have finished below it in the X-Stats for Division 8, Id guess that Journey is better this year than it was in 2015, for whatever the reason. You can point to the Mario Kart 8 result, too, I guess, but Id say thats more of a black mark for its chances against Witcher 3, not this match, especially after it put up a similar number on Pokemon.

Its hard to know what to make of Dark Souls/The Last of Us in the aftermath of the TLOU2 leaks, but I dont think it goes that high if you hold this match a week earlier (in other words, if Allen hadnt delayed the contest twice! Augh my poor bracket). I dont think much of its win against Metal Gear Solid V, at least as far as beating Skyrim goes. I have a hard time thinking MGSV is all that much better than the likes of Final Fantasy XV or Kingdom Hearts III, and weve seen how badly those have been exposed as the contest has gone along.

The board vote should be the most interesting part of the match because both games have had horrendous ones. Dark Souls spikes for a few updates after that and then spends the rest of the match falling back to earth. Skyrim just keeps going up for most of the match. I wouldnt be surprised if Dark Souls leads for the first hour or so, but I think Skyrim will eventually rise past it and win going away.

Leonharts Vote: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim

Leonharts Prediction: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim with 54.86%

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Kleenexs Analysis

I suspect a lot of people are going to have a lot to say about this match, but not me! For one, Im on a bit of a time crunch. Secondly, the last round convinced me. I was definitely a bit down on Skyrim early on, but you know what? I think it has looked fine. Dark Souls has looked good, but I also dont think particularly highly of most of its competition. I think all the games it beat kinda suck, and Im not willing to put Pokemon and Nier so far down the shitter to make Skyrim look bad after that last match. Western hierarchy or whatever can toss off. Skyrim is still super popular and its going to win this. Next round is a different story, but well get there when we get there.

Kleenexs Prediction: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim with 52.25%

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Guests Analysis MechanicalWall

I said that the optics in Division Finals for both these games were gonna be all over the place... and I was right. I also said that Mario/Smash and Skyrim/Dark Souls were the only interesting matches after Top 16 started and was... mostly right (still reeling from P4/XBC tbh).

Oh boy, where to begin now that there's two entire Divisions worth of data to work with? I guess I'll start with Dark Souls 'cause it had the dumber match and there's not as much to say. Dark Souls was never gonna look good. Period. Either it retained the ridiculous 63% it started the match with, and we'd figure, "Well obviously that's nonsense and the leaks completely doinked TLOU, so the result is illegimate". Or it settles at the percent it actually got and we'd figure, "Well Dark Souls is obviously underperforming because TLOU should have gotten doinked harder by those leaks."

How much are those leaks worth? 2%? 5%? Impossible to know and honestly it's not worth speculating too hard about. What I will say is that 58% really isn't that far off from what many would have projected based on the previous Rounds, so it could just be that the leaks didn't hurt the game much. If that's the case then Dark Souls still looks pretty dang good! Or maybe they did and it looks bad! Oh darn let's move on 'cause this isn't getting us anywhere.

As for Skyrim... well. I'll be upfront and say I really don't think much of Pokemon's half of the Division; NieR is GOOD, certainly a good midcarder, but I was vocal about it being overhyped from the word go; it was probably one of the weaker 2 seeds. R2 of Division 8 and Pokemon only outperforming Nier by a bit in R3 signaled to me that neither game was the potential beast many had worried they would be. And then it turns out MK8 was right around that level? Ehh I'm sure MK8 is GOOD but there has to be a ceiling to how good it could possibly be. Skyrim certainly deserves props for not embarrassing itself on its way to Top 8, but I feel its match was more an indictment on Pokemon and NieR than it was some massive demonstration of strength.

But let the comparisons begin! I have 0 idea what I would take between HGSS/Nier and TLOU because the bottom of Div 8 was so pathetically weak; I THINK I would take TLOU pre-debauchery, but let's look elsewhere for comparison. MK8 60-40'd Uncharted 4, which I feel pretty safe in saying is weaker than UC2. TLOU was SUBSTANTIALLY stronger than UC2 in 2015 (65-35 according to x-stats but I feel UC2 is probably underrated due to Sonic-Pokemon weirdness; maybe it'd be 60-40 instead?). But would a weakened TLOU still do better than 60-40 on UC4 (SFF aside)? I'm kinda feeling it, but I'm kinda not, so, uh...

Y'know, the more I write, the more I realize that TLOU just throws too much of a wrench into any kind of levelheaded analysis of the potential strength of all the pieces involved. So let's do this dumb-dumb style. Dark Souls' percent on its opponent was lower than Skyrim's, AND Dark Souls' opponent has more reason to suck even if it may have originally been stronger than Skyrim's opponent. Therefore Skyrim stronger? Sure, I guess.

Wow, maybe I should have gone dumb-dumb style for every guest analysis I've done instead of writing novels no one reads. Woulda saved me a lot of time.

But one more thing. I have a sneaking suspicion that whatever wins will do so pretty comfortably, ie by more than a single point. Why do I think this? Zero actual reason other than a gut feeling that one of these games has been coasting more than the other through their weakass Divisions. I'm gonna take Skyrim, but if Dark Souls socks it in the jaw I wouldn't be shocked.

MechanicalWall Prediction: Skyrim 53%

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Crew Consensus: The ol Skyrim Sweep

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Why does everyone think Dark Souls is a western game?

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Master Moltar posted...

The ol Skyrim Sweep

Looks like a win for Dark Souls it is.

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Dark Souls fanbase despise western rpgs for the most part btw.

The curse was so strong this time I think I saw my laptop shake a little.

Sharinnegan posted...

Dark Souls fanbase despise western rpgs for the most part btw.

That fanbase despises most things tbh

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MechanicalWall posted...

Why does everyone think Dark Souls is a western game?

because Dark Souls supporters need a reason to think it can beat Skyrim even if it's weaker
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finally a low prediction!!!

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Dark Souls vs. Persona 5 go

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Looking at the results, Skyrim probably has this with ~52%. I feel like it has still clearly lost a step and Dark Souls gained, but it turns out the gap from 2015 was too big to close.

Two West > East results tomorrow. Yay?

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transcience posted...

Dark Souls vs. Persona 5 go

Honestly, the fact XBC is holding up so well despite potential SFF against Smash tells me that P5 could very well have been running VERY close to Ultimate here.

I think a lot P5, which is why I honestly don't think Witcher is in much trouble next round if their match is close. Persona has looked legit this contest.

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I agree


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So much for boxing Kleenex, he just ended up almost perfect!

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Ive never felt less sure of whats going to happen during a board vote

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