Current Events > Insane that betting odds have Dems taking the Senate

(+) Yeah! (+)

Not to mention Trump falling to 40% reelection odds. Obviously betting odds aren't prophetic but they've been Trump and Repub favoring for the whole election cycle.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

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whats insane is that repubs ever had a chance

have you seen republicans lately? There are people that actually support them

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They only got a net gain of 1 seat in 2018 (with a bunch of fuckery to just barely steal a few elections), and that was their best map.

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Bullet_Wing posted...

It's the Trump Effect. He's fucked his party to the point where only Republicans like them. The GOP has been bleeding independents throughout his presidency even though Republican support remains strong. Unfortunately for them, independents are required to win elections.

Also, less people are identifying as Republican than in 2016.

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BLAKUboy posted...

that [2018] was their best map.

what are you talking about

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/

the 2020 flip is likely via 50/50 split with vp making the deciding vote

which was enough for the old party to pass massive tax cuts for the rich on a party line vote, so it should be enough for the new party to rescind those same cuts

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Sackgurl posted...

what are you talking about

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/

the 2020 flip is likely via 50/50 split with vp making the deciding vote

which was enough for the old party to pass massive tax cuts for the rich on a party line vote, so it should be enough for the new party to rescind those same cuts

It was their best map in that they only had to defend 9 seats, and could even afford to lose 1 and still maintain control. This time they're on the defensive (23 of 35 seats up for grabs) and they can only afford to lose net 2 or they risk losing control of the Senate.
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BLAKUboy posted...

They only got a net gain of 1 seat in 2018 (with a bunch of fuckery to just barely steal a few elections), and that was their best map.

What did they do to steal elections in 2018?

Bio1590 posted...

It was their best map in that they only had to defend 9 seats, and could even afford to lose 1 and still maintain control. This time they're on the defensive (23 of 35 seats up for grabs) and they can only afford to lose net 2 or they risk losing control of the Senate.

i get it now, when he said 'their' he meant republicans

was super confused since the topic title made democrats the subject

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Yeah, the Dems lost seats in the Senate primarily on the back of Blue Dogs failing to hang on in red states and unlikely flips like Texas and Tennessee not materializing.

For comparison with the above: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/
The Dems have four obvious pick-up opportunities against weak incumbents, including two in blue states(CO+ME). All four races feature a deeply unpopular incumbent Republican. There are also two open seats in Georgia and various other unlikely but not impossible pick-up opportunities. Importantly, the only clear pick-up opportunity the Republicans have is in Alabama. None of the other Democratic incumbents seem particularly likely to lose.