Poll of the Day > Fiction as a method of hypothesis testing

(+) Yeah! (+)

Say you have a hypothesis such as the simulation hypothesis or the just world hypothesis. One way of testing to see if it might be true is to write fiction about it. Then show the fiction to people and if they like it the hypothesis is more likely to be true

I feel like you are invoking a type of argumentative fallacy.

This one, to be specific: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum
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Likely a hypothesis doesn't make it true.

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You could be onto something, TC! People love fiction. That's how a lot of conspiracy theories are born!

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people like reading about vampires so vampires are likely to be real, scientifically speaking

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gbagcn posted...

Say you have a hypothesis such as the simulation hypothesis or the just world hypothesis. One way of testing to see if it might be true is to write fiction about it. Then show the fiction to people and if they like it the hypothesis is more likely to be true

What. the. fuck?

One, you can't "test a hypothesis" when you decide the outcome. That would be like running an experiment while putting down whatever you want as the results. Second, showing people fiction doesn't make a fiction any more likely that it'll work in reality (although they can point out it wouldn't work)

User Info: gbagcn
? Block User Since: Jun 2002Karma: 5844Active Posts: 6

Okay, who the fuck is this dude? His weird posting style seems familiar.


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everyone please like and 5* my book about george bush and ronald reagan being tortured in hell

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Mead posted...

people like reading about vampires so vampires are likely to be real, scientifically speaking

I never said it proved the hypothesis true. Even though it tests the hypothesis it doesn't do it that well but you have to start somewhere. Also consider this. What is more likely to be true: something someone wrote down or something no one ever wrote down?

gbagcn posted...

I never said it proved the hypothesis true. Even though it tests the hypothesis it doesn't do it that well but you have to start somewhere. Also consider this. What is more likely to be true: something someone wrote down or something no one ever wrote down?

what's your favorite hypothesis

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Part of the point of genre fiction is to raise possibilities that could be explored later - for example, sci-fi stories about the potential drawbacks of robot rebellion and AI evolving to the point of self-awareness and then immediately turning against humanity mean that, when we DO reach a point of technological sophistication where we CAN build robots and AI, we'll likely take precautions against those sorts of things. So fiction can basically serve as a sort of large group brainstorming session to all attention to potential dangers.

That's not really "testing a hypothesis", though, as much as it is proposing a hypothesis.
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The problem is theres too much the average person doesn't know so they can't accurately assess if the events added up or not.

I guess technically if no one used your fiction to disprove the hypothesis it's slightly more likely to be true, but not by a meaningful amount. The question is basically asking, if you talk to a bunch of people about your hypothesis and none of them come up with reasons it can't work, is it more likely to be true than if you didn't do that. More likely, yes, but not necessarily likely in general.

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