Board 8 > Stock Topic 18

(+) Yeah! (+)

Also, your example is exactly why people buy Tesla stock LOL. "I love their cars." Of course someone can tell others to buy Wendy's because their food is delicious. Delicious food => customers => profits.

What a streamer can't do is imply they have inside information. Like, he can't stream and say "everyone should buy Wendy's because I know something about the company." All the information on WSB is public though.

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red sox 777 posted...

Also, your example is exactly why people buy Tesla stock LOL. "I love their cars." Of course someone can tell others to buy Wendy's because their food is delicious. Delicious food => customers => profits.

What a streamer can't do is imply they have inside information. Like, he can't stream and say "everyone should buy Wendy's because I know something about the company." All the information on WSB is public though.

So why do you believe this never happened before? no one dared to rally a stock in public. No one

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Nanis23 posted...

So why do you believe this never happened before? no one dared to rally a stock in public. No one

It happens all the time, constantly. CNBC is literally doing it 24 hours a day every day. Citron Research is doing it over and over on Twitter. There is nothing new about people talking about investments. What is possibly unprecedented is this 100%+ short interest in Gamestop.

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Responding to the interesting discussion on position sizing from last topic:

Now that I have six figures, the game plan was always to get a lot more conservative from here, I think I will still likely be investing a good portion of the money in my Ameritrade account at all times, I'm just going to diversify a lot more, do more brief swing trades with 10k or 20k invested. Don't think I'm willing to ever do a position size more than half of my portfolio anymore, no matter how high my conviction on a trade might be.

That sounds very reasonable and I'm happy to hear that. I think it is good - you have more money at risk now, money that is harder to make back if it is lost. Half is probably the most I'll put on any one position also, and only with very high conviction ideas. A regular strong conviction idea I'll probably do no more than 1/3. My average play gets allocated a little less than 10%.

To me between $1000 and $5000 sounds reasonable
Anything more than that in a high volatility stock like AMC or GME or other meme stocks is crazy

On 175k, 5k is less than 3%. Which is fine for a high variance stock in a diversified portfolio. 1k seems low. At that point, the amount of work you would need to do to fill your portfolio with investments is probably too much. Like, if you have 5-10 stocks, it's relatively easy to keep up with news and ideas about them so that you are investing intelligently. If you have 40 stocks it's like a full time job and if you have 100 stocks I don't know how one person would have enough time to do it. You might as well buy a fund at that point.

Although, from previous conversations I think you keep most of it in cash, right? In which case I guess the allocation discussion would go differently. I mean, on the one hand I think it's silly to keep a huge cash hoard like that; on the other hand, if you can't handle the emotional rollercoaster of investing it's probably better not to do it.

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Also, Nanis, to be clear, fraud is illegal. Lying about a stock or company is illegal. Telling the truth or expressing opinions is generally not illegal.

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Looking at my Realized Gains from AMC, I am insanely confused and will have to call Vanguard. Instead of simply listing one sum illustrating how much I made/lost from a purchase, it looks like my trades were broken up in pieces? And some of which are wash sales? For example, it properly lists the trade where I made ~35k yesterday off my first sell, but then it lists two more trades that I never even made!

Im probably reading it wrong but Id like to understand it.

https://youtu.be/SvVLXqJgWHo

Guys I don't know how to make sense of what I'm seeing....Sean Hannity is on the correct side of an issue. Huh. I guess when there's no political parties involved, there's no need to be a propagandist.

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Sunroof posted...

Looking at my Realized Gains from AMC, I am insanely confused and will have to call Vanguard. Instead of simply listing one sum illustrating how much I made/lost from a purchase, it looks like my trades were broken up in pieces? And some of which are wash sales? For example, it properly lists the trade where I made ~35k yesterday off my first sell, but then it lists two more trades that I never even made!

Any time you're making a big purchase of stock, you're likely not buying all from one other person's order. Especially in a stock with so much volume, a bunch of orders are getting filled at once. So that accounts for why trades may be broken up into pieces.

As for how the rest of that happened and you got wash sale'd, I have no idea.

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I bought AMC two days ago (1/28) for around $46k at $7.50. Due to a previous wash sale, it was changed to $49k at $8.01.

I sold yesterday (1/29) all in a single transaction. Yet, Vanguard is showing three transactions totaling the $49k. One of the three transactions is listed as a wash sale. Any idea?

That is how it was listed (three separate pics, three listed rows... so read them as if it was left to right) , with the $15.92 counted as a wash sale. How the heck is that possible?

That part makes sense to me, Blur. Just not the red number. Surely the price didnt drop so significantly and quickly that I bought it in the red during that transaction.

Thats why I trade in my Roth, so I dont worry about taxes

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https://twitter.com/alexadelman/status/1355220742024081408?s=21
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Gah! I bought a little more SPCE on Thursday and decided to sell half of my Thursday purchase on Friday for a quick gain when it rose to $49. But I forgot to choose the tax lots manually so it used FIFO and sold my low cost basis stock from August! That stock was only 6 months away from a full year and a much lower tax rate. If I end up selling my SPCE position between August 1 this year and Jan 29 next year this is probably going to cost me $200 in more taxes for not remembering to change the tax allocation.

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Nanis23 posted...

A community can't say "let's all buy X stock and hold it!". When you are small, maybe no one will notice you, but you still can't.
Pewdiepie or other super popular streamers can't just stream "Hi guys let's all buy $WEN because I like Wendy's and hamburgers are delicious"

Dumb comparison. You're treating an entire community of people like 1 person and wondering why the rules are different.

Who will you actually charge for the market manipulation? All 8 million members of the subreddit? The few ones with a high # of upvotes? It's totally arbitrary and oppressive.

And the fact is, hedge funds DO get together and collude on stocks to buy/short in small groups. Any law against reddit would absolutely go against them first. So let's see it.

Essentially what you're saying is that during the housing crisis, the people buying subprime mortgages should go to jail and not the bankers who set up the mortgages.

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Btw for anyone interested in a more normal consistent strategy to do with not play money that can have higher returns than just buy and hold, i recommend looking at the wheel with options.

It basically consists of picking a stock and selling cash covered puts and once those are executed selling covered calls and once those are executed go back to the puts. Basically you are making income from both premiums and profit off of just selling the stock in the first place. You can find guides on it online. (this is for real stocks not meme stocks)

It slightly lowers potential upside but your potential downside is slightly lower than just buying the stocks outright but more importantly in most cases where the stock doesnt go up or down like crazy you make a good deal more money

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StartTheMachine posted...

Welp, I await to hear the take from investing genius Lopen!

AMC is actually worth buying as a non-squeeze stock at these levels so just hold. No reason not to hold. Worst case scenario it goes up to a modest $20 in a year or two, back what it was in 2018. Like there's no chance AMC goes out of business now. It and Gamestop are symbols against the greed of the upper echelon of American wealth at this point.

GME is obviously still overpriced in spite of this by several times over but AMC is safe here.

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The big ? With AMC is if the roof falls off GME will inertia take down all the restricted stocks with it as first time investors flee the market entirely.

I like AMC here, but Im not dropping all of my money in it because I can see a scenario where it falls back to 4 or 5 before climbing long term as you predict.

I can make 3X more by waiting if the play is long term.

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This thing is too big now. I don't see how we lose. We have big name crypto investors coming in with millions. I need need need to get my shit from Robinhood to Fidelity. UGH.

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I don't see AMC going back to 4 or 5 ever. The floor is just higher now. Bankruptcy off the table and theaters re-opening with increasing frequency makes it go up naturally. I made fun of Chris's army of calls on it because he opened them before the bankruptcy refinancing news but his logic behind the stock going up (aside from Disney buying it out which I still think seems a bit strange) isn't completely off. If you feel safe it can weather the storm it should go up.

And that's ignoring this huge free publicity it got as a hero against corrupt money and short squeeze x-factor. It's not going to rocket to $300 but it should make steady gains and eventually those shorts will need to get out.

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Lopen posted...

I don't see AMC going back to 4 or 5 ever. The floor is just higher now. Bankruptcy off the table and theaters re-opening with increasing frequency makes it go up naturally. I made fun of Chris's army of calls on it because he opened them before the bankruptcy refinancing news but his logic behind the stock going up (aside from Disney buying it out which I still think seems a bit strange) isn't completely off. If you feel safe it can weather the storm it should go up.

And that's ignoring this huge free publicity it got as a hero against corrupt money and short squeeze x-factor. It's not going to rocket to $300 but it should make steady gains and eventually those shorts will need to get out.

so you're saying... you like the stock?

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Forceful_Dragon posted...

I saw a thread on reddit about getting around the Robin Hood limitations via contracts:
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l82y7u/how_to_buy_gme_above_broker_limits/

I don't have enough knowledge to know if this is a good idea or if you are overpaying this way, but it makes it sound like it's an opportunity for people who still have resources tied up in RH to stay in on the action without waiting.

Also yes I used this method on AMC. That's how I'm up to 1400 shares after selling down to 500 and will be up to 2000 again on Monday on Robinhood.

(I am in the process on moving to E-Trade I just wanna make sure I hold AMC shares through this so I moved all of my free/expendable money first while holding AMC)

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l LIKE THE STOCK.

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Nanis23 posted...

So why do you believe this never happened before? no one dared to rally a stock in public. No one

First of all, this has happened before, on the daily in fact, as others have pointed out. But you are right that it hasnt happened on this scale, for obvious reasons. The tools and conditions for it to happen didnt exist until recently.

The first tool was the rise of social media after the Casual Revolution, leading eventually to the rise of Reddit specifically.

The second tool was the rise of easy to use stock trading via apps with low barriers to entry, such as Robinhood and others.

The condition was a Global Pandemic leading to a bunch of people with suddenly way more time on their hands to discover the second tool and then band together using the first tool to create a community around trading, ie WSB.

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The pandemic's influence wasn't giving regular people more time (I doubt that's true in general), but it awakened a consciousness of the different rules that the different classes play by when it comes to stimulus/bailout/etc. That strengthened the meme of us vs them over the entire last year. WSB/GME absolutely did not cause any class consciousness, but it is the first big outlet for expressing it. There will definitely be more outlets.

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Also, this can be seen as Occupy Wall Street 2.0

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redrocket posted...

Also, this can be seen as Occupy Wall Street 2.0

Rambo: Do we get to win this time?

Occupy Wall Street but actually works this time

I like it

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redrocket posted...

Also, this can be seen as Occupy Wall Street 2.0

ouch

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https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l8rf4k/times_square_right_now/

fucking crazy, I love it

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As an fyi, anyone that wants to get in on amc monday but at a lower risk/basically guaranteed profit. Assuming the price opens around 13.50 and option prices don't change too much.

You can buy 100 amc for 13.50 a share and sell a $16 covered call for ~4ish (not sure exactly what it will open at) a share. this would bring your cost basis down to 9.50.

This would put your cost basis at around 9.50 a share. If it ends the week above 16 you would make $650 on a $950 investment. If it doesn't you end up with 100 shares of amc with a cost basis of 9.50 which you are free to hold or sell another call on to bring your cost basis even further down with.

You can do something similar by selling a cash covered put with a 10.00 strike price for ~$200 dollars. This would require you to have $1000 down. If it finishes above $10 you just made 200 dollars for free. If it finishes below $10 you have to buy them but 100 shares at an $8 cost basis which its definitly worth more. You could also then transition to selling covered calls at this point and keep bringing your cost basis.

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Yeah covered calls is why I'm owning shares

I made 3k selling 5k worth of $30-$40 2/5 covered calls on Friday and buying 2/3s of them back for 2k at the end of the day. Very lucrative

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StartTheMachine posted...

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l8rf4k/times_square_right_now/

fucking crazy, I love it

I am just a WSB lurker and I wish I could have said I am part of this
This is so amazing
Hat's off to WSB

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https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1253516/amc-entertainment-amc-moves-to-strong-buy-rationale-behind-the-upgrade

Fuck yes

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Really think that should help some new retail come on board that are more experienced investors but are afraid of the volatility

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I'm starting to feel greedy. Not a safe feeling

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AMC at this price is a good buy regardless of short positions.

That's a big fucking regardless.

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People have come up to me who have never traded before asking how they can buy AMC. And like 5 people on the discord said they've had the same experience.

Whew I just wish we could fast forward to the end where we're all rich, but that's not the market! But...I'm starting to have faith in a more sincere way than the memery.

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Honestly as someone who sells cardboard for 1000-2000 a pop you get used to it

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I bought AMC last week but put a stop loss at $8 which it hit for like 30 seconds last week so I lost it. Not sure why I did that.

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I'm pretty sure that, despite now having a Vanguard account, I'm still don't know how to buy stock, or even if I can buy stock.

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Just a heads up for people that care about non-meme stocks-
I am following some Israeli Telegram and online forums, some people who are very good at TA are super concered about the closing of Friday. They pretty much said that all major indicies closed below the "support" of "the tunnel" or whatever other bullshit that TA is
And this is the first sign of a correction coming
One of the people that said this is the guru of the forum. He also predicted the COVID market crash like a month before. I know that in hindsight it sounds like "well, duh" but US Stock Market kept on breaking new records up until the 20th of Feburary, and he warned the whole way

But I don't know. I am taking him seriously but...I just don't "feel" like a crash is coming. I felt it very well in Feburary 2020 and I don't feel this now. Maybe I am wrong.
They are very concered about the high exposure that the stock market gets in the last 2 weeks. They are very concered about Robinhood actions. And if those "meme stocks" are really going to fuck hedge firms and they are going to sell the normal stocks they are holding this might lead to a collapse
(Also people leaving Robinhood and selling their stocks so they can leave to another broker easily)
And the VIX doesn't look good either. Two days ago was the 3rd highest increase for a day in the history of the market

I don't panic yet and honestly maybe this is all bullshit and Monday futures are going to be green and crisis averted..again

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Nanis23 posted...

Just a heads up for people that care about non-meme stocks-
I am following some Israeli Telegram and online forums, some people who are very good at TA are super concered about the closing of Friday. They pretty much said that all major indicies closed below the "support" of "the tunnel" or whatever other bullshit that TA is
And this is the first sign of a correction coming
One of the people that said this is the guru of the forum. He also predicted the COVID market crash like a month before. I know that in hindsight it sounds like "well, duh" but US Stock Market kept on breaking new records up until the 20th of Feburary, and he warned the whole way

But I don't know. I am taking him seriously but...I just don't "feel" like a crash is coming. I felt it very well in Feburary 2020 and I don't feel this now. Maybe I am wrong.
They are very concered about the high exposure that the stock market gets in the last 2 weeks. They are very concered about Robinhood actions. And if those "meme stocks" are really going to fuck hedge firms and they are going to sell the normal stocks they are holding this might lead to a collapse
(Also people leaving Robinhood and selling their stocks so they can leave to another broker easily)
And the VIX doesn't look good either. Two days ago was the 3rd highest increase for a day in the history of the market

I don't panic yet and honestly maybe this is all bullshit and Monday futures are going to be green and crisis averted..again

Trend Analysis is voodoo. Or rather, it will always be behind the times and no longer working well unless you are actually using the latest, most sophisticated models at the best quant firms.

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So OK, here's a question. Right now we're like, "off hours" for the market right? Can you even buy stock right now?

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GANON1025 posted...

So OK, here's a question. Right now we're like, "off hours" for the market right? Can you even buy stock right now?

Nope, any order you place will hold and won't trigger until market opens.

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there's technically a chance of a crash, sure.

in order for that to happen it would require all the short sellers to NOT have left, for the stocks in question to continue going up, for them to sell everything to pay up gamestop/amc/whatever else, prompting a massive selloff across other major stocks like disney, amazon, apple, google, etc, and for others to take this as meaning they need to sell too instead of buying that dip.

so super unlikely as it's not just demanding the short sellers to be stupid but a lot of other people. you might have a few days of stocks dropping before they go right back up a week later.

now other things can contribute - super covid - but this event shouldn't cause anything. maybe something more long-term for people hunting at overly shorted stocks (e.g., silver) but expect changes and new regulations to be put in place sooner than later. only thing left after that is whether people snap and react violently or not. i'm gonna wager "not" over this but that's the only thing left.

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OK. So if the market is closed, any order you put in won't actually happen until like 8:00 AM the next business day (or whenever the exact time it opens). If that's the case, then is it possible the price of the stock can go up or down before your buys go through? Or is that just not possible?

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The prices totally change after hours. That's why you don't want to set a market buy after hours, since you have no idea what price it's going to open with then next day.

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What time does the market open Monday, and should I invest my shirt on AMC if I think it's low enough? XD