Board 8 > B8 NFL Suicide League: Week 4

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Crescent-Moon
10/03/21 4:42:18 PM
#102:


The Bills are probably the most usable team all season in suicide. They're a good pick in 7 separate weeks!

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Xuxon
10/03/21 4:42:57 PM
#103:


LeonhartFour posted...
That was my reasoning for why the Saints were not a more popular pick.
Oh okay. That's still not a great explanation, though. Bills were the only guaranteed team and less than half the people picked them. Saints made more sense to me than Titans, so I think it's fair to wonder how there was that much of a difference in number of picks.

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LeonhartFour
10/03/21 4:43:42 PM
#104:


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Xuxon
10/03/21 4:45:26 PM
#105:


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LeonhartFour
10/03/21 4:47:10 PM
#106:


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Xuxon
10/03/21 4:49:27 PM
#107:


The original post I was responding to was about the number of Saints picks. I was saying the Saints were my second choice and also wondering why more of the people wanting to save the Bills didn't pick the Saints.

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DoomTheGyarados
10/03/21 4:50:06 PM
#108:


Because the Saints suck

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LeonhartFour
10/03/21 4:51:39 PM
#109:


Xuxon posted...
The original post I was responding to was about the number of Saints picks. I was saying the Saints were my second choice and also wondering why more of the people wanting to save the Bills didn't pick the Saints.

The Saints have been utterly unpredictable and the Giants aren't as atrocious as the Jags or Jets.

also blargh I am dead but at least it wasn't due to a tie

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Crescent-Moon
10/03/21 4:56:48 PM
#110:


Warned people all week the Titans were a trap, I just thought the Jets would totally blow it and wow did they keep trying to.

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LeonhartFour
10/03/21 4:57:55 PM
#111:


Titans were a fingertip away from stealing that game in overtime too

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KCF0107
10/03/21 4:57:55 PM
#112:


I picked the Jets outright to win, so I was never going to consider the Titans
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Crescent-Moon
10/03/21 4:58:11 PM
#113:


Xuxon posted...
The original post I was responding to was about the number of Saints picks. I was saying the Saints were my second choice and also wondering why more of the people wanting to save the Bills didn't pick the Saints.
Saints were also my second choice. I put 15 points on them to win by 8 or more!

They were supposed to be the pick if I didn't feel like risking on the Bengals, and were one of my hardest two locks of the week.

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Xuxon
10/03/21 4:58:14 PM
#114:


Jets had like 6 different opportunities to seal the win and declined all of them. It was kinda funny to watch.

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ScareChan
10/03/21 4:58:35 PM
#115:


What was that one game that killed everyone a few years back? It was like week one or two

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Xuxon
10/03/21 5:03:41 PM
#116:


Looking back through the spreadsheet I don't see just one game that killed everyone that early. There was Lions+Saints week 1 2018 and Bears+Chiefs week 1 2014. I guess week 2 2016 Lions alone were a pretty big one, too.

I remember pre-spreadsheet there was a Seahawks Giants game that eliminated tons of people but that was week 4 or 5.

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LeonhartFour
10/03/21 5:04:22 PM
#117:


looks like Vikings/Bills killed a bunch of people a few years back but that was week 3

and there was a Saints/Bucs game like 5 years ago but that was week 4

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HanOfTheNekos
10/03/21 5:05:14 PM
#118:


Lolrams?

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Crescent-Moon
10/03/21 5:11:44 PM
#119:


LeonhartFour posted...
looks like Vikings/Bills killed a bunch of people a few years back but that was week 3
I remember it was like 27-0 the wrong way at some point

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Crescent-Moon
10/03/21 5:21:17 PM
#120:


We lost 33% of the ESPN league, 36% of the Yahoo league, and a probably similar number of our league to the Titans and Saints.

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LiquidOshawott
10/03/21 5:22:10 PM
#121:


I honestly dont really know what my next week is gonna be just from looking at the schedule

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KCF0107
10/03/21 5:22:52 PM
#122:


Only one person had the Saints, but the Titans might have been our most popular pick this week. It was them or the Bills.
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KCF0107
10/03/21 5:24:35 PM
#123:


LiquidOshawott posted...
I honestly dont really know what my next week is gonna be just from looking at the schedule

I am personally looking at Panthers or Cowboys.
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Crescent-Moon
10/03/21 5:27:11 PM
#124:


Panthers at Cardinals? That's insane.

It's Dallas or Vegas. Both teams have future value so I'll probably play ahead a little before I pick.

Add-on: Tampa is also a good pick, though like the Bills they have a ton of usable weeks.

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KCF0107
10/03/21 5:27:55 PM
#125:


I thought Panthers were hosting Eagles. Let me check again. Yeah, I am right. I also didn't see the MNF game of Ravens hosting Colts.
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Crescent-Moon
10/03/21 5:30:31 PM
#126:


KCF0107 posted...
I thought Panthers were hosting Eagles. Let me check again. Yeah, I am right. I also didn't see the MNF game of Ravens hosting Colts.
They are I started looking at the wrong week.

Somehow when I looked at the Panthers opponent I was on week 10.

They're a fair pick. I don't think they're a great one, but getting the Panthers off your board is a good thing.

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Xuxon
10/03/21 5:31:24 PM
#127:


At first I was thinking Vikings, Cowboys or Pats, but Raiders and Ravens have emerged as possibilities. Vikings and Pats also don't look as good anymore.

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Crescent-Moon
10/03/21 5:35:39 PM
#128:




Xuxon posted...
At first I was thinking Vikings, Cowboys or Pats, but Raiders and Ravens have emerged as possibilities. Vikings and Pats also don't look as good anymore.
Vikings were my lean some time ago but... Nope no thank you.

I'm still pretty sure I'm just going to use the Pats week 7 (hosting Jets) but it's not set in stone.

I'm not.. Particularly interested in suicide picking against this Colts team at home though because they're definitely better than their record but it's hard to tell by how much.

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SwiftyDC
10/03/21 8:17:44 PM
#129:


I had a bad feeling about the Titans. Sucks that I had to use the Bills but hey, still alive.

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dilateDChemist
Last minute changes killed my bracket - still would've got destroyed by azuarc
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MZero
10/03/21 8:46:03 PM
#130:


ScareChan posted...
What was that one game that killed everyone a few years back? It was like week one or two

one that comes to mind is the Steelers and Browns tying in week one. I think right after the 1-35 seasons

also the third year in a row the Steelers eliminated me if memory serves

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ScareChan
10/03/21 8:56:07 PM
#131:


The one I was thinking of inspired a 'second chance' suicide league. It was that bad

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KCF0107
10/03/21 9:09:23 PM
#132:


Entering Week 3 of the 2015-16 season, we were down to six users
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masterplum
10/03/21 10:29:18 PM
#133:


SwiftyDC posted...
I had a bad feeling about the Titans. Sucks that I had to use the Bills but hey, still alive.

Bills were just basically a bye this week, and in a league as competitive as the NFL you just cant pass up byes. You only have to win 17 weeks. Take the freebie when you can.

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SwiftyDC
10/03/21 10:48:07 PM
#134:


Kicking myself for not sticking with the Bengals, but yeah. Gotta go with the gimmies.

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dilateDChemist
Last minute changes killed my bracket - still would've got destroyed by azuarc
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Crescent-Moon
10/03/21 11:43:22 PM
#135:


Oh the Ravens are at home.

Ok yep good option.

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Xuxon
10/04/21 12:15:18 AM
#136:


ScareChan posted...
The one I was thinking of inspired a 'second chance' suicide league. It was that bad
that one wasn't one particular game. that was a ridiculous week where the 8 of the 12 teams people picked all lost, going from 64 participants to 6. granted, the Saints were a pretty big chunk of it. week 2 2015.

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Crescent-Moon
10/04/21 12:43:01 AM
#137:


Well, thanks Bengals, my OCD is in full gear now!

I now have a tentative picklist (with some flex) for every remaining week... Yay?

Two teams are locked into specific weeks that I will never take them from barring catastrophic injury.

The Texans are interesting. They were competitive with Tyrod - Too competitive to risk taking bad teams against... but with Mills as a totally non-functional QB they are by far the worst team in the league. They don't even feel like anything resembling a threat, and they're a veritable treasure trove of good suicide picks for the next several weeks. It's more about which teams they're playing that you want to save for later.

So the question's going to be: When does he come back? I currently have 4 picks against them on this sheet and if he doesn't come back at all it's going up to at least 5.

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tgs2
10/04/21 12:48:07 AM
#138:


Most have Tyrod back at week 7 against the Cardinals going by the most optimistic of estimations so that is a good starting point.
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Crescent-Moon
10/04/21 12:53:12 AM
#139:


tgs2 posted...
Most have Tyrod back at week 7 against the Cardinals going by the most optimistic of estimations so that is a good starting point.
Yep, but I don't think he's back for that game, and it wouldn't affect whether I took the Cardinals at home or not. They have no reason whatsoever to rush him back. Week 8 would be the earliest I'd think it's possible.

The week I'm personally looking at is week 9. The Dolphins are a very weak link on this sheet. I don't even trust picking them at Jacksonville in week 6.

Houston's bye immediately follows that Dolphins game. I have a sneaking suspicion he'll return week 11 after the bye, but it's actually a really big gamble if I keep the sheet as it is because I have no escape hatch week 9 if he's playing.

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Xuxon
10/04/21 3:30:02 AM
#140:


Crescent-Moon posted...
The Dolphins are a very weak link on this sheet. I don't even trust picking them at Jacksonville in week 6.
That's in London, not Jacksonville.

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Crescent-Moon
10/04/21 10:48:59 AM
#141:


....Point still stands.

I don't trust the Dolphins enough to even suicide pick them against the Jags.

The only situation in which I'd ever use them is that week 9 game if they're still stuck with Mills at QB.

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turbopuns3
10/04/21 11:11:29 AM
#142:


Just me tonight huh
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Crescent-Moon
10/04/21 11:23:00 AM
#143:


Not sure why you'd touch this game... But I'm picking the Raiders to win outright.

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masterplum
10/04/21 11:56:56 AM
#144:


Im legitimately considering the falcons next week. Send help

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turbopuns3
10/04/21 11:57:18 AM
#145:


Idk. I tend to play this league on whimsy

Raiders seem like a scam with two OT wins and no convincing wins

Chargers seem like they're in a good spot
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Crescent-Moon
10/04/21 12:00:08 PM
#146:


It's the Chargers in a divisional game at home coming off a good road win.

The Chargers have a tendency to drop this kind of game. They'll have to prove otherwise to me because I'll trust them.

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Crescent-Moon
10/04/21 12:03:16 PM
#147:


masterplum posted...
Im legitimately considering the falcons next week. Send help
Help has arrived!

The Jets defense is, somehow, much better than WFT's. Atlanta struggles in the red zone, where the Jets defense has done it's best work this season in the red zone - they nearly lead the NFL in red zone defensive efficiency. After seeing some flashes of offense competency in that game, I can no longer say for certain the Falcons are meaningfully better than the Jets. The Falcons should also be 0-4 right now.

This game is the true definition of "suicide" pick. It's that risky.

In the past 12 hours, the Falcons dropped from 16% on ESPN's suicide league to 13%. People who picked it early on are starting to bail out.

Dallas also jumped from 8% to 14% in the same timespan. The Raiders and Ravens are still only at 4% and 5%, somehow.

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turbopuns3
10/04/21 8:21:59 PM
#148:


What happens to me if MNF gets canceled jw
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KCF0107
10/04/21 8:22:57 PM
#149:


You would have to choose two teams next week
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Crescent-Moon
10/04/21 8:26:59 PM
#150:


turbopuns3 posted...
What happens to me if MNF gets canceled jw
You remain in limbo

Forever.

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