Board 8 > Stock Topic 35

(+) Yeah! (+)

Moonroof posted...

FWIW, September and February are historically the worst performing months in the stock market.

And January was supposed to be the best but we all know how that turned out

No wonder why, when I started a year ago (literally a week before the GME stuff), I almost gave up because I lost like $100 and I felt there's no money for me in the stock market.

I can announce that I kept investing and I'm down about $2,000-3,000 now!

all I needed to do was just buy good ETFs like SCHD darn it

The Fed just needs to start giving more details of their ramp for rate increases and selling assets on their balance sheet. Right now it's not clear how much they are going to do so there is a lot of fear.

Well, what helped the market last year and in 2020 was the ever gracious government literally printing money fans throwing it into the economy. That obviously isnt happening anymore.

That was a tremendous surge into the close there. At this point I'm used to false starts that quickly sink into new lows so we'll see how Monday looks.

Bull trap.

I sold CRWD for a $17 (!!) profit on a $140k investment. I was down as much as $7k in it so whatever, I wanted to free up capital during these dark times.

Does anyone here actually use SOFI? Trying to do a sanity check.

I do not.

red sox 777 posted...

Does anyone here actually use SOFI? Trying to do a sanity check.

I have $100 in their automated investing platform. I don't use them much.

Apparently they're good for mortgages and I have a partial application with them as well, but I think they didn't qualify me or something based on my situation.

I know they started out with refinancing student loans, which I always thought was a bad business. I don't know why anyone would want to refinance federal student loans which have income-based repayment and forgiveness at the end of the period if you haven't made enough money to pay it off with a real loan that you have to repay regardless of how much money you make. But I take it that's only a small part of their business now.

This might be the great green day we were waiting for.

I refi'd parent plus loans to sofi to get them off my parents' books and to drive down the horrible 7+% interest rates on them. But I'm also not in the realm of the softer repayment/forgiveness alts. Expanding from that narrow service does make sense.

Good for you, CRWD *eyeroll*

I sold UBER for a nice 2% profit, thanks red. Completely liquid now ready for a big dip. Any recs?

C'mon BBIG break $5 by the end of the week so I can sell my $3 calls to exercise $2.50 calls

Bbig popped today

Still waiting on the official dividend date but the Form 10 addendum had "January ___" as the date which is making a PR today seem at least somewhat likely.

Chart looking super bullish right now though. I'm thinking $3.50 is the battleground tomorrow morning even without news.

I was *this* close to putting $260k into BBIG at close. I didnt have it in me.

Today was a good day.

BBIG up 13.37% today

Signs and portents.

Moonroof posted...

I was *this* close to putting $260k into BBIG at close. I didnt have it in me.

Do 52k and hold for 3 months instead of 260k and holding for 3 minutes

You'll generate dozens of times the returns.

Yeah. I think Ill do that in the AM or at close depending.

Be sure to buy in multiples of 10 should you do so

Get every last TYDE share you're due

I've been holding BBIG for some time, hoping for that payout.

Just so you all know BBIG is well over 95% of my portfolio currently. I'm not endorsing anything I don't believe in completely. (I have a very small amount of TWTR puts that expire 2/18 and QQQ/IWM calls)

Got $50,500 BBIG at $3.26.

Annoyed that I keep missing EVRI gains. I was waiting for it to go under $19.50.

Wtf. Apparently my BBIG stop of $3.38 hit even though I never saw it go below $3.42 since I set it. Whatever.

So if you want to make it super hard to lose money you could sell a bunch of 3.5c on BBIG that expire Friday

Not financial advice I say hold till at least double but it is an option to you to make an easy ~20% gain

Oh.

Oh.

Lol.

Everyone sees your stop orders

With a volatile stock like this it literally is a stop gain. The price will just be moved to the range to get your shares then bounce right back up.

If theres a dip Ill get back in

How much are Friday calls going for anyway?

3.5c is going in the $0.25 to $0.30 range
4c is going in the $0.13 to $0.17 range

So basically selling those would reduce your cost basis by the respective figure and you'd only lose the shares if it held above those prices (both of which are above where you bought the shares so it's win-win)

It's pretty hard to lose money on the stock if you're aggressive with those.

Nice. I just dont know if itll get back in the 2s by Friday. Or the 5s!

It's certainly possible. I don't really see it getting lower than the $3 borderline (could easily see it get pinned just below $3 though) which is why I was saying selling 3.5c doesn't seem like a terrible idea (back when your entry was at $3.26, even if it went back down to around $3 you would have made money on the exchange selling 3.5c at $0.30)

It really is a ticking time bomb though which is why I'm saying just putting a modest sum in (as in, just pretend the money doesn't exist) and holding through April is going to make you the most. Once that dividend date is in stone we're going to be well north of $10.

Lopen posted...

Everyone sees your stop orders

With a volatile stock like this it literally is a stop gain. The price will just be moved to the range to get your shares then bounce right back up.

In general the smart money are able to exploit stop orders mercilessly. Especially large orders in low liquidity stocks.

No comment on BBIG itself.

BBIG's volume is among the highest on the exchange recently so the liquidity thing is not the issue here.

Ease of manipulation is the key. It's got such a huge short interest that it gets manipulated like it has low liquidity even though the liquidity is through the roof.

But hey if the bullflag goes low enough he may be able to get back in.

$230k BBIG $3.50, $4c this Friday

Not at all what I recommended just to put it on the record

Feel really good about you getting a modest 20% on that though

That's a buy of BBIG stock at $3.50, not $3.50 calls right?

Yeah I got $8,600 premium for it.

red sox 777 posted...

That's a buy of BBIG stock at $3.50, not $3.50 calls right?

Correct.

So mentally just realize that even if it goes down you've basically bought in at around $3.35 at this point.

I still think that market maker pinning just below $3 seems possible but I'm holding all my calls for this week expecting $5 or so on no news. Too much shorting and cost to borrow right now for this volume.

Must hold against all temptations

Also realize that even if it goes down you can do this next week too. Any sold call with 3.5 strike or higher you make money.

As I said really hard to lose right now. Too much volume and demand for options. If I wasn't out to hit the jackpot I'd be selling puts or calls right now

Well good luck to both of you.

Sounds good, Lopes. Red, are you joining the fray?

No. To be honest, over the last year, I have heard a lot of discussion about short sellers engaging in manipulation that on its face appears extremely unlikely to work and likely to cause themselves to lose money. At this point, hearing this kind of thing triggers a high level of skepticism for me. I don't think short sellers are actually stupid enough to be throwing away their money like this.

For GME, they were wrong because they didn't realize that thanks to the speed of information flow with the internet, you no longer need to have a large percentage of shares of a stock concentrated in a small number of hands for a short squeeze to occur. That's an understandable mistake, given that in recorded history we had never seen a major short squeeze without concentration of shares before GME. But I don't think they are going to make that mistake again so soon after it blew up in their faces and as for manipulation, it's one thing if they're doing it to try to dig themselves out of a hole, it's another to jump in a hole and then try to manipulate to get out. It seems much smarter just to not jump in the hole.

Lopen has very high confidence in BBIG and I respect his analytical ability but I just don't understand why the short sellers/market makers would be behaving in the way they are theorized to be behaving.

With Market Makers it's about kicking the cans down the road. The huge open interest of options week after week is what is causing it. They're making tons and tons of money by not delivering shares right now. If they can weather the storm long enough and BBIG hype dies down, the price never pops and they pocket all that premium.

Why you are mistaken in thinking there aren't similarities to GME and AMC here is those stocks the options is what moved the price violently as well. A bunch of people just buying shares doesn't do it. Options are what drove the market there.

Short Sellers I'm not entirely sure. Keep in mind they're very far up on this trade currently. The thing with short selling is it's very easy to rake lots of money on small amounts of movement. If you short BBIG at $3.50 and it falls to $1.75 you've doubled your money. Also keep in mind that a lot of really big money, they're shorting due to a computer algorithm. I worked for a company that designed computer algorithms that decided whether to buy or short a stock based on the underlying option volatility-- that was the entire basis of my job position, to let people make money wheeling stocks without paying attention, so yes it does exist, and these "poor shorting" decisions could completely be the work of a computer algorithm and not some mustache twirling evil fat cat saying "AH I'LL SHORT NOW"

Anyway the inorganic price movement in the face of impending catalysts makes it clear. People wouldn't be selling a company with all this stuff on the very near horizon. There is a stark difference between how BBIG moves and something like I don't know MMAT or SDC. But I'm not here because it gets squeezed for the squeeze's sake, I'm here because TYDE dividend, when the SEC irons it out, forces covering.

Basically your options are the following

• People following the stock are selling massively and the data showing short interest/ftds/etc is incorrect
• People are shorting, all the data we have is correct, and people actually following the stock are holding

Like you either have a tinfoil hat about fintel/ortex/nasdaq etc or you have a tinfoil hat about short selling-- no matter which scenario someone is lying.