Board 8 > Discussing Mafia Mafia Topic 11 - I Will Always Love You

(+) Yeah! (+)

I'm not going to kill SBell. Nor do I think he's scum at all. I just think it's funny I suggested that all 4 scum players bought godfather on n1 and it might actually be true

I am almost positive that what happened was:

- Han saw Sultan's claim and decided right then and there to play the long game and support Sultan just to look good. If Lopen had to die for it, that's okay because no one would logically suspect scum Han to confirm the town roleblocker.

- Lopen, betrayed by his scummate, tried to come up with a fakeclaim to refute Sultan, knowing full well that it was not true. Seeing vanilla as too lazy of a claim, Lopen decided to go for a spicier claim of Bulletproof. Perhaps they weren't expecting the protection to out themselves, but if they did, it would be perfect since they could just kill the protection the following night. Lopen's claim, however, was countered by yours truly. At this point, Lopen should've immediately fought me on this to the death. However, given that town perception ain't very high, it was clear which claim was more believable, which Lopen quickly realized. Indeed, it was the smarter play to retract the claim to have a chance at surviving, but the focus was already on Lopen.

- Seeing that the town wasn't buying the "why would I claim roleblocked as scum" argument as Han and purportedly lynching him for all the wrong reasons, Scare tried to push the logic that scum expected to set up, likely also just as infuriated as Han that town refused to take the bait that was, logically, the reason we should kill Lopen. Due to Han's persistent, analytical nature, perhaps he was seen as more valuable for digging the team out of this hole. More likely, Lopen was the harder teammate to save, while Han could still be painted as town.

Ngl if Scare didn't try to save Han, I wouldn't have caught on to him being scum. My logical conclusion would've been Mzero, but that seems unlikely now. Possible, but Scare felt like he completely broke character with the defense against Han.

##King: changmas

imo scum is in red/Scare/death and you listed two of them as your top reads so you have my sword

Lopen posted...

Ps Kirby did the same thing going into depth about how Sultan is town. Sultan is obviously town. It doesn't require a two paragraph dissertation.

These are observations of self-preservation not observations to try and solve the game

Suddenly convinced I'm not the independent? Maybe because it's in your best interests to make sure I die today since my observations about Scare were dead-on... Because I certainly said more than just Sultan being town.

I feel confident enough in this vote.
##King: changmas

I had my doubts about Sultan, but making him King was the right call yesterday. Let's make another right call today.

Kirby321 posted...

Suddenly convinced I'm not the independent?

Independent wants to survive as their primary objective just like scum

Well Sultan I wouldn't have actually been a jerk to you today, but now I need to eat some crow as well.

Maybe Tidus is a savant and I'm trash

I will say Scare looks slightly better with two GFs flipped. If scum invested in a bunch of GFs there's no need to make yourself look bad by murdering the claimed cop. In fact, he'd probably want to keep the cop alive to get the GFs scanned inno. Of course, if the rest of the team still scanned guilty they might have decided it was worth it to take Tidus out anyway

Anyways, I can't prove it obviously, but my intention was to lynch Plum when I was King before the situation with Tidus happened. And with (at least) 2 godfathers in play leaving Tidus alive would have been the right play as scum. I've failed forward a bit that this should make me more town now with the 2nd one.

I thought my logic made a lot of sense on Han that Lopen should have been scum before him. Han being scum makes me think Lopen is scum even more now., but I expect my two cents to be seen more as IOUs right now so I don't expect anyone to listen to me at this point

For what its worth I still never lynch Kirby yet, and regardless of if scum shot IGCD directly or not I don't lynch Sbell either. Sultan is off the table today for sure, RIP tonight. Chang is the last of my 'don't lynch' pile

MZero posted...

I will say Scare looks slightly better with two GFs flipped. If scum invested in a bunch of GFs there's no need to make yourself look bad by murdering the claimed cop. In fact, he'd probably want to keep the cop alive to get the GFs scanned inno. Of course, if the rest of the team still scanned guilty they might have decided it was worth it to take Tidus out anyway

Han was Tidus' top suspect. He'd essentially be cleared the next day

Lopen posted...

Independent wants to survive as their primary objective just like scum

So what do you have to say about my four-paragraph dissertation about why you, Han, and Scare are scum? I'm scumhunting more than you are. Your accusations of self-preservation are baseless when you've barely done anything yourself.

Why don't you give us a list of your town/scum rankings instead of just pointing the finger at me and Red with empty threats?

I actually came to the exact opposite conclusion, Mzero, that Scare felt he could stick his neck out further to save Han because "if Han flips godfather, lynching cop no longer looks as bad" so his scum equity doesn't go up as much.

The main guy that looks ironclad from that flip right now is Chang as I highly doubt starting with enough points for two godfather + extra kill makes sense.

TidusOfTheX posted... I have no idea who is highly town but my top 3 possible scum are:
Sbell
Lopen(pretty big gap between Lopen and Sbell)
Han

If Scare is scum, that's a bad look for Lopen. Obviously scum wasn't worried about SBell or Han being scanned

Kirby321 posted...

Your accusations of self-preservation are baseless when you've barely done anything yourself.

I've actively pushed for our two scum flips of the game (and three town flips, being fair) and am going for my third. Who is being baseless here?

Lopen posted...

I've actively pushed for our two scum flips of the game (and three town flips, being fair) and am going for my third. Who is being baseless here?

Everyone suspected plum. The fact that you pointed out "post 63" was a complete fluke, as your intention wasn't to reference a post that forced plum to commit to his power hinting. I believe it was Death who pointed out the topic 1, post 63 thing. And as for Han, you only suspected him out of self-preservation. The lynch was clearly between you two, and obviously you're going to try and save yourself. You're giving yourself way too much credit here.

Meanwhile, you killed Crescent and refused to listen to everyone telling you not to kill her.

In any case, this senseless argument is just going to flood the topic. It's pretty clear that you're scum. The question now is whether Scare is your buddy or not.

Lopen posted...

I actually came to the exact opposite conclusion, Mzero, that Scare felt he could stick his neck out further to save Han because "if Han flips godfather, lynching cop no longer looks as bad" so his scum equity doesn't go up as much.

The main guy that looks ironclad from that flip right now is Chang as I highly doubt starting with enough points for two godfather + extra kill makes sense.

That is the other way to look at it, yes. I'm realizing that this is a pretty similar situation to you killing Crescent over me. He has to outlive Han for it to work... which he did. Maybe scum is just thinking two step ahead of me

Kirby321 posted...

Everyone suspected plum. The fact that you pointed out "post 63" was a complete fluke, as your intention wasn't to reference a post that forced plum to commit to his power hinting. I believe it was Death who pointed out the topic 1, post 63 thing.

Post 63 was to force plum to analyze and play the damn game, which was a way bigger scumtell than gladiator

Han-

Town
IGCD
chang
Scare
Lopen
Red

Townish
Sultan

????
MZero
Rana (Sheep)
Plum

Scummish
Tidus
Kirby
Death

Scum
SBell

plum -

Townish
Kirby
Sultan
Death

Scummish
Red
Lopen
Tidus
Sbell

Pretty much opposite lists from plum and Han, other than both leaning scum on Sbell and Tidus and townish on Sultan. Lopen, death, and red being in opposite tiers is interesting (and Kirby but not considering him today)

I agree that chang is the right king for the day.

frankly, scum will either kill confirmed town or leave me alive to try to force godfather fear and that just makes them kill one of you and thst just gives them one less body to hide in.

I don't want tonhammer king if more conversation is requested.

Obellisk posted...

there has been no legit hangut this game.

han didn't like being caught in a lie.

and here we are.

ScareChan posted...

I don't like Sbell

Day 1. Pre Kinging.

Obellisk posted...

Day 1. Pre Kinging.

You skipped over me calling out plum as soon as game started

But I also wanted to King Han without reading

Wrong topic, please ignore this. (Won't delete to avoid confusion)

Obellisk posted...

I agree that chang is the right king for the day.

frankly, scum will either kill confirmed town or leave me alive to try to force godfather fear and that just makes them kill one of you and thst just gives them one less body to hide in.

I don't want tonhammer king if more conversation is requested.

I actually think you should be king. Or gamble on king Sultan but he is further removed from being cleared.

I haven't thought too hard about king today though.

Oh I totally forgot about Sbell. Sorry! Another good King candidate there. chang deserves a chance to be a King, but if popular opinion is Sbell I am 100% okay with that.

It's really convenient that we have a handful of confirmed or very likely Townies this late in the game.

Sultan can't be King today

I mean at this rate I may have to be lynched regardless due to Process of Elimination, but I still hope it wont have to come to that.

So I wont be voting for Changmas as King today since it doesnt seem like he even wants to consider shooting anyone else.

Anyone happily voting Changmas right now looks worse for that reason though

Also I still struggle to see Lopen as scum

I already think its ridiculous that Han made that kind of claim when he should have suspected that the lack of a NK would be explained away later. I can believe it even less that both he and Lopen would make such dangerous claims when they likely knew there was still some form of protection out there.

Everyone suspected plum. The fact that you pointed out "post 63" was a complete fluke, as your intention wasn't to reference a post that forced plum to commit to his power hinting. I believe it was Death who pointed out the topic 1, post 63 thing. And as for Han, you only suspected him out of self-preservation. The lynch was clearly between you two, and obviously you're going to try and save yourself. You're giving yourself way too much credit here.

To be fair, I wasnt the first to point out post 63.. Though I forget who did.

Scum claims have kind of been trash this whole time.

Hell you guys should know I'm not scum just on the basis of the garbage scum claims. I never would have allowed this trash.

htaeD posted...

Also I still struggle to see Lopen as scum

I already think its ridiculous that Han made that kind of claim when he should have suspected that the lack of a NK would be explained away later. I can believe it even less that both he and Lopen would make such dangerous claims when they likely knew there was still some form of protection out there.

To be fair, I wasnt the first to point out post 63.. Though I forget who did.

I am the one who pointed out post 63 from topic 1 after lopen was speaking of post 63 from the then current topic which had everyone's town/scumblists.

after a re read of topic 1 I determined that red can't be scum.

his interaction with Han alone in that topic sorta solidifies it.

Inversely you are probably town regardless of the godfather confusion due to the way you lambasted Han for his separate Sbell post and all the mess that followed.

It may go under the "caught for the wrong reason" category. But I still caught him in a lie and ultimately destroyed him for it.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Stu is dead to rights scum and Han is clearly going to kill him.

I lol'd

Man rereading day1 is more boring than I thought it would be.
Though the irony of Han liking Sultan so much is delicious

Han called Plum dumb town, also called Red and Crescent town. Called Sultan, Tidus and Chang fake/scummy and was wary of Ben. He did later change his mind about Sultan though.
Hans faith in Red being town was always a bit weird. But that could just be him trying to smooth talk red.
Han himself also disliked the idea of Mzero being King. But eh... Scum wouldnt want scumzero as king either I think.
He also called Scare scum out of nowhere and then didnt follow it up in any way. In fact he later supported the idea of Scare being King as well.

The votes for Kinging happened and Plum voted Han of course, so did Kirby and Scare. Kirby said he did just to avoid a NL. Han also said he liked Kirby's input.
Kirby did at least later get convinced to vote Lopen instead. Then again even if there was nothing else to make Kirby look good. I dont think Han berates a fellow scummate for editing his posts.
Scare also disliked Lopen for not trusting Han as king and claimed Lopen was moving goalposts. Though I am not sure Lopen even directly referenced Han that much, if at all. (even Lopen was confused)
Either way Scare voted for Han before he even read the topic (or so he claimed), largely due to Han always dying to scum N1.
Just for the sake of the record, I also voted Han (mostly because I disliked Lopens weird program promises and also didnt think it would matter much) and Ulti did too (because he wanted Sbell dead)

Red was very clearly against Han being king, which makes him look better yes.

Anyway, after all of that the notking Han claimed he would have put Sbell, Ulti, Rana, Kirby and Chang in his deathpits. Easy to say for him then sure, but still want it noted.
Later in the day he also called me and Ben scum as well for not wanting to vote him King. Kirby argued against this, which adds even more to the notscum Kirby pile.

Not much gleamed so far except that Reds town equity is rising and Scare's seems to have always been low.

Death, I reached the same conclusion after rereading topic 1 and most of topic 2.

I think chang is currently at three votes with Sbell at one. I have to travel again today, but I am perfectly fine with either candidate. I still want to avoid the No Lynch, though, so if everyone thinks Sbell is the better candidate, I'm fine with switching. But better to have that intent stated earlier than later.

As for who to kill today, I don't think Death is our best target. He's been generally deep on his analyses, and I doubt a scum would put that much effort into it. Lopen is clearly scum just based on his reactions today alone, and so Red looks better for fighting IGCD on keeping the lynch between Han and Lopen back in D4. Chang, Sbell, and Sultan are very clearly off the table.

The obvious answer for who to kill today is Lopen, but if we want to do a bit of trolling... we could keep him alive as an easy roleblock target for Sultan. In that scenario, I'd find Scare and Mzero to be the most reasonable lynches, perhaps Scare more so.

I think Sbell is the better king because I trust his judgment more.

Don't really like the "red can't be scum" mindset but there is a second scum out there. It's possible I'm wrong but I can't help that Han's bad claim was largely stemmed from Red's read of the game. That he insisted on lynching me yesterday despite a claim existing on the other candidate that should have made 0 sense. He also has avoided justifying that. Town red explains, because it's suspicious. Scum red continues to provide worthless insight like "Sultan is town" and hides behind a persona of indifference because he knows I will never be elected again.

Kirby being super aggressive towards me. Probably because he knows I will call for the safe slamdunk indie lynch should we get another scum. Doubt he actually thinks I'm scum, which functionally makes him anti-town at the moment.

##King Sbell

Lopen posted...

I think Sbell is the better king because I trust his judgment more.

Don't really like the "red can't be scum" mindset but there is a second scum out there. It's possible I'm wrong but I can't help that Han's bad claim was largely stemmed from Red's read of the game. That he insisted on lynching me yesterday despite a claim existing on the other candidate that should have made 0 sense. He also has avoided justifying that. Town red explains, because it's suspicious. Scum red continues to provide worthless insight like "Sultan is town" and hides behind a persona of indifference because he knows I will never be elected again.

Who is the first scum, Lopen? You?

I have no problem taking the reigns again.

I would like someone to assist me in reiterating current legitimate claims/night actions of alive players and dead town.

obviously Sultans roleblocking is no longer "confirmed" since Han flipped scum. although Han still could have been roleblocked and was just corroborating to come across more town. (I'm not saying Sultan is scum). just looking for a compiled list. a lot came out the last 48 hours.

Obellisk posted...

obviously Sultans roleblocking is no longer "confirmed" since Han flipped scum. although Han still could have been roleblocked and was just corroborating to come across more town. (I'm not saying Sultan is scum). just looking for a compiled list. a lot came out the last 48 hours.

His flip litterally says he was roleblocked night 2...

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

His flip litterally says he was roleblocked night 2...

it does not say that

changmas posted... okay wait a second actually. i think King SBell today may actually be incorrect.

With bodyguard dead, sultan will surely be the target tonight. Which means that whichever non-Sultan player we want to live longest (SBell) should actually be elected King tomorrow, not today.

that does give mafia the option to kill sbell tonight, but at the risk of allowing 2 more roleblocks from sultan. which i don't see happening.

##Unking for now to discuss this

thoughts on this logic above, SBell?

also to be clear as King, barring other significant developments I would plan to look at a pool of Death/Scare/Lopen as possible candidates for lynch. So if you think all 3 of those players are town, you probably shouldn't vote for me unless you can make a REALLY compelling case for someone else.

I can try to draft the list of claims / actions now gimme a sec

You know I am starting to think scum did just shoot IGCD directly, since they cant afford to leave Sultan alive for even one more night if they cannot reliably buy roleblocks on him...

Also Kirby a minor question, but did you consider your role as 'protection'?

Dead Players

Crescent - Town Bus Driver

Ulti - Town Watcher
N1 - Watched ???

Tidus - Town Cop
N1 - Investigated SBell - Not Guilty

IGCD - Town Bodyguard
N1 - Han
N2 -SBell
N3 - Chang
N4 - Protected ??? (SBell, perhaps?)

Plum - Mafia Puppet
N1 - Became Godfather

Han - Mafia Puppet
N1 - Became Godfather
N2 - Rolecop ???
N3 - Roleblocked ???

Ben - Town Vanilla
Sheep - Town Vanilla

Alive Players

Chang - Town Vigilante
N1 - Shot Ben

Sultan - Town Roleblocker
N1 - Red
N2 - Han
N3 - Lopen
N4 - Scare

Kirby - Town Bulletproof
N3 - Was shot, armor broke

SBell - Town Vanilla
Lopen - Town Vanilla

Red
Mzero
Death
Scare

htaeD posted...

You know I am starting to think scum did just shoot IGCD directly, since they cant afford to leave Sultan alive for even one more night if they cannot reliably buy roleblocks on him...

Also Kirby a minor question, but did you consider your role as 'protection'?

they absolutely shot him directly. and there likely was no downside to doing so, because we may be all out of power sans Sultan

Oh right we still need to claim.. @Mzero you still here?

it's like 3am in Japan im gonna say that's doubtful

Did he even post at all?

Isolating this part of my day2 readthrough
But Scare was very defensive of Han early on. He called Han town because he thought scumhan would have killed him night1.
He also badgered Tidus for calling Han scum, telling him to be useful instead.

But the big defense came here

We know there are 4 scum this game

[5] Han - Ulti, (Tidus), Scare, (Kirby), Masterplum, Crescent, Han, (Death)

Out of those 5 people on Han, 2 of them are now dead confirmed town, leaving you with myself, Plum, and Han who are not confirmed

in this theory you have Han as your scum. That means that either
A: You think that both Plum and I are town and neither of us are scum so scum had 0 factor in the King
B: Both Plum and I are scum and we took 3/4 of scum in a losing effort on Han
C: One of Plum or myself is scum and scum went 50/50 on who they backed yesterday

Just based on gameplay, taking my own perspective of me being town out of the equation and looking at it from someone completely uniformed, neither B or C makes sense either for the way Plum has played with either of myself or Han. Your most likely scenario for this to be true is Han and I to be scum together, and again even taking my perspective out of things, you haven't suspected me thus far

if there is always at least one scum between Lopen and Han its going to be Lopen. And even in a case where Han and Lopen are both scum that still makes Lopen scum! Lopen should always be who you should want lynched first between the two

Granted, I still dont know how likely it is that 3 of 4 scum would all pile up on Han. But its not impossible.
The more important thing to me here is that Scare could use this logic to propel town into suspecting Lopen and not Han. And him becoming a King was just a nice bonus.