Board 8 > Am I the only one surprised Tom Cruise beat Marvel?

(+) Yeah! (+)

Yeah you're right the second half that included both Infinity War and Endgame had a higher average entirely because of Black Panther

Yeah, the second half of Phase 3 was massive because of the two Avengers movies and Black Panther, but those movies were as huge as they were because of the buildup that started with the first Avengers.

LMS is trying to act like Black Panther is what made the MCU a superpower, and that's just not the case.

What's going to be really interesting is if Black Panther 2 pulls in a significantly lower amount of ticket sales - the movie has been trending downward with a lot of criticism in how the T'challa legacy is being treated. And with a suddenly swelling movement to recast the character, I wonder the series can't manage to be the cultural touchstone the first movie was.

I meant that's more what cemented it, not what made it. Otherwise fair though.

I'll fully admit this is probably personal bias talking here since I didn't really start following the MCU that much before 2018 and until the devilish double act of Black Panther and Infinity War it just seemed like one of many big franchises, whereas after it was now THE big man on campus. Like, The Last Jedi was the highest-grossing movie of 2017 and then those two movies outgrossed it within half a year of its release. Heck if you go by worldwide gross Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle beat out every MCU movie in 2017, and domestically the biggest superhero movie of the year was Wonder Woman!

(oh look what I brought up lol)

Yeah like I said, no one film was responsible. Still, the presence of all the Avengers movies is why I also posted the median - and its clear that it wasnt just Infinity War and Endgame running up the score, all of these movies were making a lot more money in Phase 3. Captain Marvel doesnt make $1.1 billion if it releases in 2014. So the reasoning is wrong but the statement that the MCU was much more of a big deal from Phase 3 on is correct I think. Just to be clear Im not agreeing with LMS in general I just think that Phase 3 was the big growth point, even if you take away the two Avengers movies.

Also I dont know if the increase in streaming movies is enough to make up for the number of theatrical releases literally halving (though tbh in raw numbers it wouldnt shock me), but its also a bit dodgy since a lot of those movies are basically the equivalent of home video bargain bin schlock, while others are cinema-worthy. There isnt really any way of making that comparison positively or negatively. What I will say is that I think streaming is a good supplement and way of extending films lifespans, but I dont think it should fully replace cinemas either, even for smaller films. Everything Everywhere All at Once likely would not have gotten the buzz that it did if it came out only on streaming. On the other hand, Nightmare Alley mega-bombed in cinemas, but did really great streaming numbers. I think you need both.

I mean I'm not saying Black Panther wasn't a huge success. But Ant-Man and Wasp and Captain Marvel giving bloated numbers is your better indicator than "average gross." You stick Avengers and Age of Ultron together in a phase that includes 6 movies and your average is going to increase a lot too.

I just think the catalyst for the MCU reaching a boiling point was not really Black Panther by any stretch. Black Panther was just as Leonhart said a beneficiary of the hype machine doing its thing combined with being a good movie that got a lot of good word of mouth. But if you just remove Black Panther from the release list I don't think your overall numbers are going to really be all that different. Feels like revisionist history to try and say the hype behind Infinity War/Endgame was remotely related to the success of Black Panther.

Northern_Cross posted...

MCU fatigue is absolutely a thing, and I suspect a lot of the people still consuming every MCU show/movie are doing so out of some weird "obligation". The truth is the mainstream appeal of the MCU (outside of Spiderman) disappeared when they put the original crew out to pasture. There are only so many C and D tier characters they can dredge up before it becomes clear that they need to let Marvel relax for 10 years before rebooting with a new cast in the big roles.

I mean no one in the mainstream cared about Iron Man, Guardians of the Galaxy, Black Panther before MCU but the MCU made people actually care about and like them and made them household names.

And honestly you could probably extend that to pretty much every superhero being a no name no one in the mainstream cares about or even recognizes outside of Superman, Batman, Wonder Woman, Spiderman, and the Hulk where you at least had some level of cultural osmosis from the old tv shows and movies.

Now, I don't think that the direction is sustainable for much longer and they probably shouldn't try to extend it past whatever big climax event they have for phase 5. And I don't think there's really a clear plan or direction for phase 4. And I can't help but think that Disney + shows are kind of a mistake in the sense of watering things down and accelerating the rate things fall apart and people lose interest - if they're not "important" to what they're building up, why should people watch them? If they are important, well you just confuse and annoy people who didn't watch them. Like with the Eternals, I think that actually would have worked much better if it were a TV show but they had to make it a movie because I assume they're building up to some sort of similar cosmic threat for phase 5 but if they made it a TV show no one would have bothered with it.

(now granted I haven't watched Strange 2/Thor 4/any of the tv shows)

The MCU movies that released around Infinity Wars and Endgame definitely benefited from the hype overload those movies generated.

I've watched everything and I will continue to watch everything because it is fun for me. :)

LightningStrikes posted...

On the other hand, Nightmare Alley mega-bombed in cinemas, but did really great streaming numbers. I think you need both.

It's an interesting discussion to me, at least, because I think it signals a new kind of blockbuster, one that can't pull in a billion dollars, but CAN pull in 80 million eyeballs still, over the course of a longer, more sustained period of time. As the numbers keep climbing for the major players in the streaming space, views will only increase, and studios can theoretically leverage that for bigger profits. But they also would gamble less on the highest-budged projects since the returns are diminished. At least that's how it appears to me. In some ways, I think the Amazon LotR fare will be the acid test for that.

Also for what it's worth, I think they made Thor 4 easy to jump into without seeing any other MCU movie (including the other Thors!), so maybe they're seeing the need for more standalone content as the MCU continues to expand.

I think Covid really fucked with Marvel's production schedule and timing, even though it was probably a bit of a blessing in disguise to have a longer break after Far From Home.

In the behind the scenes for Multiverse of Madness, they said that basically rewrote the entire movie because of the shooting delays. I think MoM was supposed to come out before No Way Home initially?

I've not seen Maverick but it's gotten very good word of mouth. It beating some of the Marvel movies is an indication of it's strength more than anything else. Marvel is going to be fine. When Avatar 2 outgrosses the Nov/Dec MCU release (and it will), this same conversation will come up again.

When it comes to streaming vs. theatrical arguments, and which is more profitable, I feel as if Disney completely misread the situation with Encanto. They looked at its "disappointing" theatrical numbers vs. its great streaming numbers as discrete, independent events, and then decided to lean into streaming (except for an already established property like Lightyear). This completely ignores the fact that Encanto probably did so well on streaming because it was released theatrically first and built up hype for the home release. The two release models can work together to create a hit; they don't need to always be in opposition.

In regards to movies outside of the franchise/fandom umbrella, I'm not sure. Most of the high profile "prestige" dramas from last year ran straight into Omicron/lingering effects of Delta, so it's hard to say. There is a school of thought that with the constant churn of pop culture these days it might be best to put something out as wide as possible right away, but paradoxically, I think the opposite might be true. People are so used to "the next big thing" coming and going so fast, that if something lingers around longer, it raises people's attention. Everything Everywhere All At Once used this strategy to great effect. We'll have to see if anyone else can replicate it.

Like, its worth noting that when you account for the pandemic and the lack of Russia and China, the MCUs popularity is still growing. Not at the same rate it was maybe, but there is still an expanding audience. I dont think this is sustainable forever, but we have not reached diminishing returns just yet.

Seanchan posted...

In the behind the scenes for Multiverse of Madness, they said that basically rewrote the entire movie because of the shooting delays. I think MoM was supposed to come out before No Way Home initially?

If I remember correctly, I think that the release order swap with No Way Home affected No Way Home more than Multiverse of Madness, but the latter still changed a lot after Scott Derrickson left. He and Jade Bartletts script was completely thrown out, they dont even get a story by credit. As glad as I am that they let Sam Raimi go full-Raimi, I would have liked to see Scott Derrickson make an MCU horror movie, hes a really underrated director.

Yesmar_ posted...

People are so used to "the next big thing" coming and going so fast, that if something lingers around longer, it raises people's attention. Everything Everywhere All At Once used this strategy to great effect. We'll have to see if anyone else can replicate it.

I mean in terms of EEAAO's marketing it seems like it's just following the typical indie film fest premiere into theatrical release circuits, it just has a bit wider appeal that gives it better word of mouth. And actually, a major blockbuster did try this - WB did it with Joker. The main differences for EEAAO compared to other indies are:

1) It has the A24 indie hype machine behind it
2) it's truly an exceptional movie that also appeals to a wide audience

Even then while successful it didn't even crack 100 mil, that's 1/10th of what Strange 2 made, so I'm not sure the definitions of success are on the same level here.

Itll hit 100 million. The international release was weird. Ultra-late release in a lot of places and still hasnt come out in many countries. A better worldwide release strategy and it probably would have ended up at more like 150 million.

It also cost 1/10th of what Doctor Strange cost!

I think it's an apples-to-oranges comparison. It's fantastic that it ended up beating the odds and expanding over several weeks though - I think it's a sign that word-of-mouth might be back in force.

A few thoughts:

1. I am very curious what the original vision of Strange 2 was. I heard the initial public reception of the script was not good, not sure if this was during Derrickson's tenure or after, and they changed things to better suit the public's tastes
2. Captain Marvel really benefitted from the Phase 3 finale hype. My eyes opened wide when I saw the numbers it pulled in. Not a bad movie, but definitely wouldn't have done those numbers without the hype. She still feels like a tacked on character and pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things
3. If I had to guess, I would think the original release schedule of Phase 4 was going to be more spread out pre-covid, but after covid hit, perhaps they decided to accelerate things to make up for lost time. They don't seem that concerned about MCU fatigue
4. Thor 4 pulling in those opening numbers is interesting. Perhaps it's because it's been so long since the original cast had a movie that wasn't Black Widow. I haven't heard good reviews about Thor 4 and it just seems like an unnecessary addition

One thing I'd like to add to the MCU box office discussion is that its sterling audience track record during Phases 2 and 3 has, relatively speaking, collapsed of late. Throughout those phases, only Thor: The Dark World and Ant-Man and the Wasp had CinemaScores (the gold standard in American in-theater audience polling) as low as an A-. In Phase 4, in contrast, only Shang-Chi and No Way Home have exceeded an A- so far, while three movies are in the B/B+ range the last two phases never approached - worse than Phase 1, when the MCU was still finding its footing. Rotten Tomatoes verified audience scores (i.e. from verified ticket buyers only, so starting with Far From Home) and PostTrak in-theater audience polling (where available) also tell similar stories.

The correlation between audience polling and domestic multiple (i.e. total gross divided by opening weekend) historically hasn't been quite as clear-cut due to the size of an opening (and of the core fanbase fueling that opening) generally being inversely proportional to a movie's multiple. It certainly has been in Phase 4, however, as Shang-Chi and No Way Home both had multiples right around 3x, while the other three movies with full theatrical runs so far have all been comfortably under 2.5x - even though two of those latter three had among the lowest openings of the post-Phase 1 MCU. Perhaps Love and Thunder will break this chain, to be fair - it's still in the early days of its run, though preliminary indications aren't positive.

As scarlet astutely pointed out, Wakanda Forever represents one of the MCU's biggest challenges yet, seeking to sell a sequel to the widely beloved Black Panther without the titular Black Panther in tow. The oversaturation and related chronology confusion others have mentioned could also be a point against the MCU of late, as with the current apparent absence of Thanos arc-style buildup to keep audiences eager. These are factors I don't think would matter if the MCU had simply continued along its Phase 3 course, and indeed "solo" MCU movies still seem to be at their 2018-19 box office peak, adjusted for COVID/country-specific circumstances. Now that this formerly Teflon franchise is finally starting to show a few cracks in its armor, however, paying audiences' box office and word-of-mouth reception to Wakanda Forever should be telling.