Current Events > So it has been about a year since the Russia/Ukraine war started who is winning?

(+) Yeah! (+)

I havent followed it since April. Which side is winning? Is it going to be over soon or is it going to be like the Syria War where it goes on for 10+ years and media doesnt cover it as much.

MelbuFrahma4 posted...

I havent followed it since April. Which side is winning? Is it going to be over soon or is it going to be like the Syria War where it goes on for 10+ years and media doesnt cover it as much.

Whoever wins, the Ukrainian people lose.

The West has responded to Russias aggression by throwing materiel at Ukraine, and turned it into a proxy war. They can say theyve done their part, and leave Ukraine to bear the brunt of the damage. In terms of infrastructure, Russia deliberately targeting the civilian population and a whole generation or two of men wholl become casualties of war.

Even if Russia ultimately wins a war of attrition against Ukraine, Russias military strength is greatly diminished. Ukrainian lives are cheap to the US and NATO if it means Russias military is crippled.

March of last year.
https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCotMarch15%2C2022.png

February of this year.
https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCOTFebruary03%2C2023.png

Weapons manufacturers are winning.

Kakapo posted...

Whoever wins, the Ukrainian people lose.

The West has responded to Russias aggression by throwing materiel at Ukraine, and turned it into a proxy war. They can say theyve done their part, and leave Ukraine to bear the brunt of the damage. In terms of infrastructure, Russia deliberately targeting the civilian population and a whole generation or two of men wholl become casualties of war.

Even if Russia ultimately wins a war of attrition against Ukraine, Russias military strength is greatly diminished. Ukrainian lives are cheap to the US and NATO if it means Russias military is crippled.

Do you support a direct Western intervention then?

No side is really winning...
Russia is throwing away the lives of young men capable of engaging in war.
Ukraine is constantly losing land, civilian casualties rise over time as the war drags because of famine/extreme cold weather with increasingly scarce valuable resources to protect them such weather and largely due to the fact the Russians have been destroying critical infrastructure that would otherwise normalize the lives of the Ukrainians.

Thus no one is really winning... however it's very clear the Russians don't care about their own military, they are consistently outgunned due to the high end military gear that Ukraine has (due to overwhelming support from western nations).

Kakapo posted...

Whoever wins, the Ukrainian people lose.

The West has responded to Russias aggression by throwing materiel at Ukraine, and turned it into a proxy war. They can say theyve done their part, and leave Ukraine to bear the brunt of the damage. In terms of infrastructure, Russia deliberately targeting the civilian population and a whole generation or two of men wholl become casualties of war.

Even if Russia ultimately wins a war of attrition against Ukraine, Russias military strength is greatly diminished. Ukrainian lives are cheap to the US and NATO if it means Russias military is crippled.

this is probably the best concise summary of the war I've seen on here.

the only (minor) issue I take is that it has arguably been a proxy war for... well, it's certainly been more than a year

I cant imagine either side is winning the war from what I can see

averagejoel posted...

this is probably the best concise summary of the war I've seen on here.

the only (minor) issue I take is that it has arguably been a proxy war for... well, it's certainly been more than a year

Agreed, Russia under Putin has been trying to pull the same annexation nonsense since South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

I remember being happy when he ousted Yeltsin. He seemed like he could get Russia in the right direction. Then it turned out he was just another kleptocrat, with more mob boss undertones.

Russia has an advantage in terms of manpower (and, of course, it controls a good chunk of Ukrainian territory) and industry (larger, not subject to constant bombardment), but sanctions are definitely impacting their ability to make certain things. Still, having a sizeable numerical advantage is a good place to be, but so far the Russian command has acquitted itself poorly. The Russians have been conducting a grinding offensive around Bakhmut for months (with little success....so far) and repulsed the Ukrainians from Kreminna in Donetsk, the only front that seems especially active at this time.

The Ukrainians are outnumbered, but have better morale, are typically better supplied, and also seemingly better led. Russian terror attacks on civilian centers have (quite predictably) hardened Ukrainian resolve to resist, but also inevitably lead to more Ukrainian atrocities (anger does that). Ukraine's economy is a shambles, but it so far has received quite a lot of foreign support from NATO powers and will begin receiving NATO tanks: British Challengers and German Leopards in the medium term, and American Abrams tanks in the long term. This will increase their ability to attack and give them tank superiority.

Ukraine likely enjoys a bit of an advantage so long as Western Powers are willing to bank-roll it - and especially if that eventually translates into F-16s. It would probably lose without Western support - and certainly both Ukraine and Russia are currently far apart in what they consider an acceptable settlement. Either way, both will be severely hobbled by this war, regardless of its outcome, but that's always the end result of such short-sighted aggression. May the aggressor get the worst of it.

Oh yeah - the West won't like what Ukraine will do in Donetsk and especially Crimea, in the event that they retake either/both.

The only people/entities winning are the military industrial complex and the weapons manufacturers.

Kakapo posted...

The West has responded to Russias aggression by throwing materiel at Ukraine, and turned it into a proxy w

Ukraine is asking for the weapons so it's not like when we propped up the Mujahideen

MrResetti posted...

Ukraine is asking for the weapons so it's not like when we propped up the Mujahideen

I think you may have misinterpreted me there. I think the US has done not one iota more than it possibly can to avoid betraying the Budapest Memorandum.

Its all been very much to the letter, but not the spirit.

No one is winning

200,000 causalities. Ruined economies, food shortages, towns in ruins.

I guess if you put a gun to my head and demand an answer Ukraine is "Winning" since a year into the War Russia has failed every single one of it's military objectives and been repeatedly humiliated and exposed as incompotent as they got pushed back from all their initial gains.

But Russia is still holding onto it's annexed land in Ukraine and preparing a new offensive. Ukraine can't kick Russia out without planes and the West is refusing to give them planes.

So everyone is losing and there's no sign of that changing soon.

The United States has Ukraine's back so Ukraine is winning......

pick4six posted...

The United States has Ukraine's back so Ukraine is winning......

If we had Ukraine's back we'd give them planes

We don't have Ukraine's back we just like Russia crippling itself in this stupid war