Board 8 > Video Game Console Mafia - Topic 7: Bonus Round

(+) Yeah! (+)

wallmasterz posted...

I have an idea that would resolve Chris and Mzero but its ruined by Chris not revealing who he claims to have granted a vest

Is it something that has to be done today? I know you have healthy skepticism for me, but I know who Chris gave vests to.

If ctes flips town, we know that my jk action was not a roleblock on the scum killer last night. There are three possible conclusions.

1. Chris' ability saved someone
2. Scum team no-killed to either get the protection to claim (if Chris is not scum) or for chris to have evidence of his role (if Chris is scum)
3. Scum shot ctes and i actually protected him

I think Dumey was being generous at putting #3 at a 1% likelihood. I'm dismissing it.

#2 is possible. However, after coming off of a night 2 where there was no kill and they're already down a member, this is practically even riskier than bussing a teammate during the day. I'm going to put it at 5%.

So #1 is far and away the most likely. Occulam's razor and all that, right?

Also, has Ulti posted in this topic yet? He posted #451 in the previous topic and i don't think I've seen him since. Does he... know about this topic?

Corrik, care to explain the unvote?

Yeah that's the point when I'm talking about probability. It's not like we're talking about 50/50 odds, or 60/40 odds, or even 70/30 odds. I think we're literally talking about 90/10 odds at worst. Peaf just gave 95/5 odds.

Peace___Frog posted...

If ctes flips town, we know that my jk action was not a roleblock on the scum killer last night. There are three possible conclusions.
1. Chris' ability saved someone
2. Scum team no-killed to either get the protection to claim (if Chris is not scum) or for chris to have evidence of his role (if Chris is scum)
3. Scum shot ctes and i actually protected him

I think Dumey was being generous at putting #3 at a 1% likelihood. I'm dismissing it.

#2 is possible. However, after coming off of a night 2 where there was no kill and they're already down a member, this is practically even riskier than bussing a teammate during the day. I'm going to put it at 5%.

So #1 is far and away the most likely. Occulam's razor and all that, right?

Okay then why are we not killing confirmed scum Mzero then?! If we beleive Chris why are we not killing mzero???

Peace___Frog posted...

So #1 is far and away the most likely. Occulam's razor and all that, right?

That's what I think yeah, but Chris' most recent game was getting lynched when he was on a 3 person scum team in a game of 14 and was the only good role they had lol. He is not beyond taking the risks.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Okay then why are we not killing confirmed scum Mzero then?! If we beleive Chris why are we not killing mzero???

Because that situation depends on Ctes flipping town.

We don't think Ctes is town.

That's why we want to lynch Ctes first to confirm that info before trying to guess between MZero and Chris.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Okay then why are we not killing confirmed scum Mzero then?! If we beleive Chris why are we not killing mzero???

Because i don't believe chris until I'm forced to confront ctes as town.

Peace___Frog posted...

Also, has Ulti posted in this topic yet? He posted #451 in the previous topic and i don't think I've seen him since. Does he... know about this topic?

Corrik, care to explain the unvote?

They both should die.

Chris and mzero? Chris and ctes?

If scum shot didn't include ctes, then they already know if they burned a "vest" or not. So, it doesn't make sense not to claim right now.

But Chris is claiming an overpowered doctor. A doctor who can save night of and also have his saves last over time as well.

Yeah, no. I'm good on that.

##vote: Chris

Fine

I've argued my peace and say we just go Mzero 1st but fine let's go ctes.

Don't think I'm bringing anyone to my side on this one

Theory - if Chris is telling the truth he probably gifted his boy sultan a vest. If sultan and mzero are both town then scum wouldve likely tried taking out two scum in one night last night by targeting sultan. This could explain the no kill regardless of ctes alignment.

I am not saying I definitely think sultan and mzero are both town, just putting this out there

I think Chris and sultan may be scum together, but thats a conversation for another day

Not sure if he ia doing this but if Chris is Scum he is painting me as his team mate. He did this in our game on Mafia U he painted Wiz as his scum mate And we won beacuse the other town member Voted Wiz and we just piled on to win.
Could see him trying to do that to me and potentially trying to pocket me.

I don't like that theory. Surely chris would be able to evaluate who holds town equity and wouldn't be shot overnight.

Corrik7 posted...

But Chris is claiming an overpowered doctor. A doctor who can save night of and also have his saves last over time as well.

Yeah. Maybe if me or death didn't exist and he only has 1 use... but I'm with you here.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Not sure if he ia doing this but if Chris is Scum he is painting me as his team mate. He did this in our game on Mafia U he painted Wiz as his scum mate And we won beacuse the other town member Voted Wiz and we just piled on to win.
Could see him trying to do that to me and potentially trying to pocket me.

Yeah its definitely possible sultan. Although I feel like youre town you are still leaning Chris is town too

wallmasterz posted...

Yeah its definitely possible sultan. Although I feel like youre town you are still leaning Chris is town too

Yeah I just think that much protection makes sense beacuse they are all basically limited . Chris did not confirm or deny he had limited vests. Unless km wrong

Uh

UnderUrMattress posted...

Uh

Nderurmattress

Peace___Frog posted...

Nderurmattress

CUUUUUURSE YOU PEEEEAAAAAAAF

But idk if ctes is mafia anymore. I can't even explain why other than I feel like he might be town getting dogged on by other town.

@SirChris

Is your ability unlimited?

Peace___Frog posted...

I don't like that theory. Surely chris would be able to evaluate who holds town equity and wouldn't be shot overnight.

Yeah. Maybe if me or death didn't exist and he only has 1 use... but I'm with you here.

Ah sorry I was trying to go somewhere with this. I think Chris is scum. If hes scum mzero is almost assuredly town. If mzero is town and Chris is scum then Chris did not give out vests, meaning sultan doesnt have a vest, and yet scum did not try to kill sultan with his gun supposedly pointed at town mzero. So yeah technically scum could be worried sultan lied about where his gun is pointed but it seems really unlikely sultan is lying and if he is its still a higher chance of pointing at town. So if Chris is scum I believe one of mzero/sultan is scum with Chris. And it wouldnt be mzero.

So I think its a solid option to lynch Chris and if Chris flips scum lynch sultan next because why wouldnt scum kill two townies in a single night.

If Chris flips town he probably gave sultan a vest explaining the no kill. This means its likely imo sultan is town and mzero is scum but scum would not have killed sultan and risked mzero being shot. So theres a good chance mzero and ctes are both scum.

UnderUrMattress posted...

@SirChris

Is your ability unlimited?

No. He's already said so, and there's no way I would consider it possible if it wasn't limited.

Can someone pull up chris' claim?

If that ability is ever unlimited then we might as well start putting bp godfather serial killer strongman ninja into every game here

For those of you arguing that Chris' role is op -

I actually see ways that it can be a liability.

1. Even though they're both accounted for, there have been commuters and untargetables. So with those in play, Chris might not always succeed in his action.
2. If Sultan is town (which is the timeline we probably live in) then he can shoot a vest and have zero utility for what appears to be the only town kp that we have.
3. It may actually cause confusion in who was actually targeted and who was not. For me personally, I still have no confident idea who was targeted and who was not, and that's due to Chris' claim.
4. The more vests he hands out, the more inaccurate failed kills attached to a jailkeeper action are. We don't know for sure if a vest that Chris handed out was popped or if the kill got roleblocked. And Chris doesn't have that leisure either since his target is unaware of receiving and losing vests.
5. If Chris plays his cards wrong and vests a mafia then they can manipulate that so easily and fake clear themselves.

To add on to point 5 and why I think Chris is Just Town, I think he is playing the role exactly how a pr should, aka not flaunting it and being very discrete and secretive with actions. As far as I'm concerned, the only person that knows who has the vests is Dumey. And I think it's outrageously unlikely he is mafia considering everything. But if he is, then we're already screwed as he has information he can navigate around. And I greatly think someone's vest just got popped and Dumey wouldn't pop it, unless he's pulling all the stops by bussing his roleblocker and pulling off some grandiose 12-layered wifom scheme.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Can someone pull up chris' claim?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80435124/973330341
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80435124/973335354

Peace___Frog posted...

If that ability is ever unlimited then we might as well start putting bp godfather serial killer strongman ninja into every game here

Hey that's me!

Peace___Frog posted...

If that ability is ever unlimited then we might as well start putting bp godfather serial killer strongman ninja into every game here

they could be lynched though, so there's fair counterplay.

just cc the master yi, you know?

I think we just need to obliterate MZero today.

@ctesjbuvf

In a timeline where SirChris is mafia, what do you think happened? Or is that timeline impossible for you?

UnderUrMattress posted...

I think we just need to obliterate MZero today.

Let me just ask this. Lets assume we lynch scum MZero correctly. Where do you want to go next?

Still examine Ctes? Corrik? Sultan?

EDumey posted...

Let me just ask this. Lets assume we lynch scum MZero correctly. Where do you want to go next?

Still examine Ctes? Corrik? Sultan?

I think it's fair to scrutinize ctes some more, even though I'm starting to come around to him being town again.

Corrik wouldn't be a bad choice. SBell needs to be looked at more. I think i trust sultan.

UnderUrMattress posted...

@ctesjbuvf

In a timeline where SirChris is mafia, what do you think happened? Or is that timeline impossible for you?

I'm warming up to the no kill idea a bit more I think. If Chris is mafia I believe he will have set up something to confuse town, mislead them or whatever, so I would imagine some odd gample/whatever in somewhere. No kill is a decent bet then.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I'm warming up to the no kill idea a bit more I think. If Chris is mafia I believe he will have set up something to confuse town, mislead them or whatever, so I would imagine some odd gample/whatever in somewhere. No kill is a decent bet then.

So which one within MZero and Chris would you rather vote?

UnderUrMattress posted...

SBell needs to be looked at more

I'm gunna disagree with this statement. It is quite clear we have at least 2 scum amongst the claimed powers and targeted players.

Bringing up the "I think it's the miller" idea is just poor at the moment and a distraction.

Gun to my head (which I know isn't too far from the truth) currently says Chris. Setup stuff makes me think MZero while gut/looking at play makes me think Chris and my track record is way better when I'm looking at play tbh.

I had hoped to come around to dig into their posts throughout the game more than I did today but yeah.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Gun to my head (which I know isn't too far from the truth) currently says Chris. Setup stuff makes me think MZero while gut/looking at play makes me think Chris and my track record is way better when I'm looking at play tbh.

I had hoped to come around to dig into their posts throughout the game more than I did today but yeah.

Interesting.

Obellisk posted...

I'm gunna disagree with this statement. It is quite clear we have at least 2 scum amongst the claimed powers and targeted players.

Bringing up the "I think it's the miller" idea is just poor at the moment and a distraction.

Give me two sentences why I should read you town without use of the word "Miller". Go go go.

UnderUrMattress posted...

Give me two sentences why I should read you town without use of the word "Miller". Go go go.

why are you town other than mzero saying reds scan on you was innocent? go go go

Obellisk posted...

I'm gunna disagree with this statement. It is quite clear we have at least 2 scum amongst the claimed powers and targeted players.

Bringing up the "I think it's the miller" idea is just poor at the moment and a distraction.

I agree. Sbell is a possibility. Frankly, a lower probability than one where Marth is gf.

But bringing it up right now when you have ctes or chris or mzero in front of you feels like scum trying to get their buddy out of a bind.

I'm going to be gone this evening and tomorrow evening. I've gotten what i wanted out of today, except for maybe more from Ulti and corrik.

I'll be around late tonight and tomorrow morning so if day continues then obviously I'll be here to talk. But if we decide to hammer ctes i won't mind it.

Yeah I agree Marth bringing up sbell seems scummy and earlier today ctes something and Marth was like cmon, surely you dont believe that? Lol. He literally just said it

Obellisk posted...

why are you town other than mzero saying reds scan on you was innocent? go go go

you answer first then i'll answer it's only fair

Votals
[4]Chris - MZero, Ulti, (Wallz), SBell, (Corrik), Corrik
[3]Ctes - Peaf, Chris, (Marth), Dumey, (Wallz), (Corrik), (Corrik)
[2]MZero - Sultan, (Dumey), Marth
[0]SBell - (Ulti)
[0]Peaf - (Wallz)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day ends at 7PM EST Tuesday, in ~24 hours 20 mins.

UnderUrMattress posted...

you answer first then i'll answer it's only fair

Well Chris said I have tells earlier and he made it clear thst that meant I was town. So I've got that going for me.

Honestly I have done nothing here, I barely read the first 3 days. I came in, claimed, fell behind and struggled to catch up. The only thing I have going for me is the miller claim and the fact that I'm not actively trying to lynch people with absurd reasoning. I am also a nice voice of reason for those of you who might be stuck on one thing or another.

and the fact that I'm not actively trying to lynch people with absurd reasoning.

I will give you this one

Anyways, I feel like if the green check on me didn't exist you should still read me as town because of how deep I'm looking at this game aka considering all options. None of you know how I play scum since it's been 10+ years since I've randed scum on this site and like as scum I'm way more calculated, tend to have an agenda and tend to have static reads. As you can see here, my reads are constantly changing and I feel like it's easy to see that I'm arriving at my reads in a genuine matter. I think it's pretty clear that I have the town's best intentions in mind.