Current Events > Turnout Data Reveals the Core of Democrats' Success in Special Elections

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Humble_Novice 02/04/24 3:13:37 PM #1:	https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/02/upshot/special-elections-democrats-turnout-2024.html The source of Democratic strength in specials over the last year, our analysis confirms, is therefore quite simple: Its about turnout. Biden voters have turned out at higher rates than Trump voters in special elections, according to estimates based on voter file data. This turnout edge explains the entirety of the Democratic performance overall. Even more convincingly, turnout explains the results district by district, with special election outcomes aligning with New York Times estimates for the number of Biden voters who showed up. A similar analysis for a general election or abortion referendums looks very different. In those higher-turnout elections, turnout plays a smaller role. Not only is the turnout less volatile, but many persuadable voters join the electorate and sometimes cross over to vote for a different party or specific issue. The same story is evident in Wisconsin, where The Times has conducted more than 7,000 interviews since 2019 and can dive deeper into lower-turnout electorates than elsewhere. Unlike most states, Wisconsin has off-year general elections, with much lower turnout than in midterms. These arent special elections, but they draw from the same pool of highly engaged, partisan and older voters. The Times data suggests that almost all of the Democratic success in these recent contests, like a key state Supreme Court election in April, was attributable to a sizable turnout advantage unlike anything in a federal general election. One final piece of confirmation comes from Times/Siena polling. Since 2019, weve interviewed 1,800 respondents in districts with special elections, including 1,000 in districts with elections since the Dobbs decision. These interviews are heavily concentrated in a handful of states where weve done the most polling there are only 17 races where we have at least 10 validated special election voters. But they nonetheless show that Mr. Biden won about six percentage points more support among validated special election voters in post-Dobbs elections than registrants overall in the same districts. How is it possible for Democrats to have such a sizable turnout advantage? Its not just demographics. Yes, college graduates make up an outsize share of special electorates about 10 percentage points higher than registered voters overall, based on Times/Siena polling. But the Democratic edge runs much deeper. Across every demographic category, Democrats seem to do better among high-turnout voters than demographically identical low-turnout voters. For instance, 96 percent of college-educated registered Democrats who voted in special elections backed Mr. Biden in Times/Siena polling, compared with 83 percent of those who did not vote in specials in the same districts. This kind of deep advantage is perhaps most easily explained by something like what used to be called the Resistance liberal voters becoming extraordinarily motivated to defeat Republicans since the election of Mr. Trump and again in the wake of Roes overturning. This energy among highly engaged Democrats has powered the partys success in special elections, and in 2022 it helped the party hold its own in the midterms. --- Miss the old GameFAQs politics board? Then come here to discuss it with us: https://www.reddit.com/r/gamefaqs261/ <cite>Humble_Novice posted [p:978651783] in Turnout Da... [t:80687860]...</cite> <quote>https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/02/upshot/special-elections-democrats-turnout-2024.html<quote>The source of Democratic strength in specials over the last year, our analysis confirms, is therefore quite simple: Its about turnout.Biden voters have turned out at higher rates than Trump voters in special elections, according to estimates based on voter file data. This turnout edge explains the entirety of the Democratic performance overall. Even more convincingly, turnout explains the results district by district, with special election outcomes aligning with New York Times estimates for the number of Biden voters who showed up.A similar analysis for a general election or abortion referendums looks very different. In those higher-turnout elections, turnout plays a smaller role. Not only is the turnout less volatile, but many persuadable voters join the electorate and sometimes cross over to vote for a different party or specific issue.</quote><quote>The same story is evident in Wisconsin, where The Times has conducted more than 7,000 interviews since 2019 and can dive deeper into lower-turnout electorates than elsewhere. Unlike most states, Wisconsin has off-year general elections, with much lower turnout than in midterms. These arent special elections, but they draw from the same pool of highly engaged, partisan and older voters. The Times data suggests that almost all of the Democratic success in these recent contests, like a key state Supreme Court election in April, was attributable to a sizable turnout advantage unlike anything in a federal general election.One final piece of confirmation comes from Times/Siena polling. Since 2019, weve interviewed 1,800 respondents in districts with special elections, including 1,000 in districts with elections since the Dobbs decision. These interviews are heavily concentrated in a handful of states where weve done the most polling there are only 17 races where we have at least 10 validated special election voters. But they nonetheless show that Mr. Biden won about six percentage points more support among validated special election voters in post-Dobbs elections than registrants overall in the same districts.How is it possible for Democrats to have such a sizable turnout advantage? Its not just demographics. Yes, college graduates make up an outsize share of special electorates about 10 percentage points higher than registered voters overall, based on Times/Siena polling. But the Democratic edge runs much deeper. Across every demographic category, Democrats seem to do better among high-turnout voters than demographically identical low-turnout voters. For instance, 96 percent of college-educated registered Democrats who voted in special elections backed Mr. Biden in Times/Siena polling, compared with 83 percent of those who did not vote in specials in the same districts.This kind of deep advantage is perhaps most easily explained by something like what used to be called the Resistance liberal voters becoming extraordinarily motivated to defeat Republicans since the election of Mr. Trump and again in the wake of Roes overturning.This energy among highly engaged Democrats has powered the partys success in special elections, and in 2022 it helped the party hold its own in the midterms.</quote> </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Tyranthraxus 02/04/24 3:18:11 PM #2:	Shit you mean to tell me that the party that votes more wins elections!?!? --- It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha." https://i.imgur.com/dQgC4kv.jpg <cite>Tyranthraxus posted [p:978651849] in Turnout Da... [t:80687860]...</cite> <quote>Shit you mean to tell me that the party that votes more wins elections!?!? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Doom_Art 02/04/24 3:18:57 PM #3:	They need to keep it up for the general election. --- Not removing this until Mega Man 64 is released on the Wii Virtual Console. Started on: 12/1/2009 http://i.imgur.com/mPvcy.png <cite>Doom_Art posted [p:978651861] in Turnout Da... [t:80687860]...</cite> <quote>They need to keep it up for the general election. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Agonized_rufous 02/04/24 3:19:48 PM #4:	The death of democracy will be done by the majority --- "All I have is my balls and my word, and I don't break them for anyone!"-Tony Montana <cite>Agonized_rufous posted [p:978651871] in Turnout Da... [t:80687860]...</cite> <quote>The death of democracy will be done by the majority </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
GrandConjuraton 02/04/24 3:22:25 PM #5:	Agonized_rufous posted... The death of democracy will be done by the majority Explain. --- Let nothing bleed into nothing. https://imgur.com/o21DN7r <cite>GrandConjuraton posted [p:978651913] in Turnout Da... [t:80687860]...</cite> <quote>Agonized_rufous posted... </cite><quote>The death of democracy will be done by the majority</quote>Explain. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
pokeweeb30 02/05/24 9:35:46 AM #6:	GrandConjuraton posted... Explain. See Chancellor Palpatine in the Star Wars prequel trilogy. --- Formerly known as maro_man aka lugi_lad. <cite>pokeweeb30 posted [p:978664623] in Turnout Da... [t:80687860]...</cite> <quote>GrandConjuraton posted... </cite><quote>Explain.</quote>See Chancellor Palpatine in the Star Wars prequel trilogy. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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gamerofNS 02/05/24 10:37:44 AM #8:	So the TL;DR is people aren't voting for Democrats, they're voting against the MAGATs. <cite>gamerofNS posted [p:978665489] in Turnout Da... [t:80687860]...</cite> <quote>So the TL;DR is people aren't voting for Democrats, they're voting against the MAGATs.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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pokeweeb30 02/05/24 10:44:52 AM #10:	[LFAQs-redacted-quote] You underestimate the stupidity of the American people. --- Formerly known as maro_man aka lugi_lad. <cite>pokeweeb30 posted [p:978665611] in Turnout Da... [t:80687860]...</cite> <quote><cite>[LFAQs-redacted-quote]</cite> You underestimate the stupidity of the American people. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Tyranthraxus 02/05/24 10:50:57 AM #12:	[LFAQs-redacted-quote] Yeah that's something that I think a lot of people keep forgetting. 2020 voters didn't know about January 6 because it hadn't happened yet. --- It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha." https://i.imgur.com/dQgC4kv.jpg <cite>Tyranthraxus posted [p:978665698] in Turnout Da... [t:80687860]...</cite> <quote><cite>[LFAQs-redacted-quote]</cite> Yeah that's something that I think a lot of people keep forgetting. 2020 voters didn't know about January 6 because it hadn't happened yet. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Forty_Niners 02/05/24 10:55:20 AM #13:	My biggest concern is that once Trump is no longer on the ballot, will Dems still have the edge? That's what worries me about DeSantis or whomever in 2028. They're still as bad as Trump, if not worse, but they don't have nearly the amount of baggage. --- Who cares if Bosa is racist? <cite>Forty_Niners posted [p:978665776] in Turnout Da... [t:80687860]...</cite> <quote>My biggest concern is that once Trump is no longer on the ballot, will Dems still have the edge? That's what worries me about DeSantis or whomever in 2028. They're still as bad as Trump, if not worse, but they don't have nearly the amount of baggage. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
pokeweeb30 02/05/24 10:55:32 AM #14:	Tyranthraxus posted... Yeah that's something that I think a lot of people keep forgetting. 2020 voters didn't know about January 6 because it hadn't happened yet. Trump is polling better now than he was before January 6th. Biden is polling worse now than he was before January 6th. --- Formerly known as maro_man aka lugi_lad. <cite>pokeweeb30 posted [p:978665778] in Turnout Da... [t:80687860]...</cite> <quote>Tyranthraxus posted... </cite><quote>Yeah that's something that I think a lot of people keep forgetting. 2020 voters didn't know about January 6 because it hadn't happened yet.</quote>Trump is polling better now than he was before January 6th.Biden is polling worse now than he was before January 6th. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Tyranthraxus 02/05/24 11:09:30 AM #16:	pokeweeb30 posted... Trump is polling better now than he was before January 6th. Biden is polling worse now than he was before January 6th. Remember how Hillary was polling like 80% lol --- It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha." https://i.imgur.com/dQgC4kv.jpg <cite>Tyranthraxus posted [p:978666007] in Turnout Da... [t:80687860]...</cite> <quote>pokeweeb30 posted... </cite><quote>Trump is polling better now than he was before January 6th.Biden is polling worse now than he was before January 6th.</quote>Remember how Hillary was polling like 80% lol </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
pokeweeb30 02/05/24 11:21:10 AM #17:	Tyranthraxus posted... Remember how Hillary was polling like 80% lol She was never polling at 80%, that's absurd. Here's an article from just before the 2016 election, explaining how the polls were actually close: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/ --- Formerly known as maro_man aka lugi_lad. <cite>pokeweeb30 posted [p:978666189] in Turnout Da... [t:80687860]...</cite> <quote>Tyranthraxus posted... </cite><quote>Remember how Hillary was polling like 80% lol</quote>She was never polling at 80%, that's absurd.Here's an article from just before the 2016 election, explaining how the polls were actually close:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/ </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Tyranthraxus 02/05/24 11:23:59 AM #18:	pokeweeb30 posted... She was never polling at 80%, that's absurd. Here's an article from just before the 2016 election, explaining how the polls were actually close: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/ lol my bad more like 90% https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-wang-princeton-election-consortium-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-victory-a7399671.html https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/hillary-clinton-has-90-per-cent-chance-of-winning-according-to-latest-reutersipsos-poll-20161108-gsk5ws.html Even 538 said 71% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ --- It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha." https://i.imgur.com/dQgC4kv.jpg <cite>Tyranthraxus posted [p:978666239] in Turnout Da... [t:80687860]...</cite> <quote>pokeweeb30 posted... </cite><quote>She was never polling at 80%, that's absurd.Here's an article from just before the 2016 election, explaining how the polls were actually close:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/</quote>lol my bad more like 90% https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-wang-princeton-election-consortium-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-victory-a7399671.html https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/hillary-clinton-has-90-per-cent-chance-of-winning-according-to-latest-reutersipsos-poll-20161108-gsk5ws.html Even 538 said 71% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
GrandConjuraton 02/05/24 11:25:53 AM #19:	Tyranthraxus posted... lol my bad more like 90% https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-wang-princeton-election-consortium-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-victory-a7399671.html https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/hillary-clinton-has-90-per-cent-chance-of-winning-according-to-latest-reutersipsos-poll-20161108-gsk5ws.html Even 538 said 71% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ Pwned --- Let nothing bleed into nothing. https://imgur.com/o21DN7r <cite>GrandConjuraton posted [p:978666271] in Turnout Da... [t:80687860]...</cite> <quote>Tyranthraxus posted... </cite><quote>lol my bad more like 90% https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-wang-princeton-election-consortium-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-victory-a7399671.html https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/hillary-clinton-has-90-per-cent-chance-of-winning-according-to-latest-reutersipsos-poll-20161108-gsk5ws.html Even 538 said 71% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/</quote>Pwned </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
pokeweeb30 02/05/24 11:27:57 AM #20:	Tyranthraxus posted... Even 538 said 71% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ So in other words... 538 gave Trump a 29% chance of victory. That's almost a 1 in 3 chance. 1 in 3 chances happen all the time. More importantly, there's a difference between "Hillary is polling at 80%" and "Hillary has an 80% chance of winning". Most polls showed Hillary beating Trump by no more than 4%. --- Formerly known as maro_man aka lugi_lad. <cite>pokeweeb30 posted [p:978666311] in Turnout Da... [t:80687860]...</cite> <quote>Tyranthraxus posted... </cite><quote>Even 538 said 71% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/</quote>So in other words... 538 gave Trump a 29% chance of victory. That's almost a 1 in 3 chance.1 in 3 chances happen all the time.More importantly, there's a difference between "Hillary is polling at 80%" and "Hillary has an 80% chance of winning". Most polls showed Hillary beating Trump by no more than 4%. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Tyranthraxus 02/05/24 11:32:09 AM #21:	pokeweeb30 posted... So in other words... 538 gave Trump a 29% chance of victory. That's almost a 1 in 3 chance. 1 in 3 chances happen all the time. Nobody said his victory was impossible, just that it didn't even remotely go the way polls predicted it would. Saying "polls are going up" is functionally a meaningless statement. --- It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha." https://i.imgur.com/dQgC4kv.jpg <cite>Tyranthraxus posted [p:978666386] in Turnout Da... [t:80687860]...</cite> <quote>pokeweeb30 posted... </cite><quote>So in other words... 538 gave Trump a 29% chance of victory. That's almost a 1 in 3 chance.1 in 3 chances happen all the time.</quote>Nobody said his victory was impossible, just that it didn't even remotely go the way polls predicted it would. Saying "polls are going up" is functionally a meaningless statement. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Forty_Niners 02/05/24 12:12:45 PM #23:	Tyranthraxus posted... lol my bad more like 90% https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-wang-princeton-election-consortium-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-victory-a7399671.html https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/hillary-clinton-has-90-per-cent-chance-of-winning-according-to-latest-reutersipsos-poll-20161108-gsk5ws.html Even 538 said 71% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ Those aren't polls. --- Who cares if Bosa is racist? <cite>Forty_Niners posted [p:978667134] in Turnout Da... [t:80687860]...</cite> <quote>Tyranthraxus posted... </cite><quote>lol my bad more like 90% https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-wang-princeton-election-consortium-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-victory-a7399671.html https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/hillary-clinton-has-90-per-cent-chance-of-winning-according-to-latest-reutersipsos-poll-20161108-gsk5ws.html Even 538 said 71% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/</quote>Those aren't polls. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Tyranthraxus 02/05/24 12:22:36 PM #24:	Forty_Niners posted... Those aren't polls. Ah my bad a Princeton election consortium survey must be a totally different thing from a poll. What's the difference? Also what is the Reuters Ipsos poll since in your expert opinion they blatantly lied about it being a poll? --- It says right here in Matthew 16:4 "Jesus doth not need a giant Mecha." https://i.imgur.com/dQgC4kv.jpg <cite>Tyranthraxus posted [p:978667322] in Turnout Da... [t:80687860]...</cite> <quote>Forty_Niners posted... </cite><quote>Those aren't polls.</quote>Ah my bad a Princeton election consortium survey must be a totally different thing from a poll. What's the difference?Also what is the Reuters Ipsos poll since in your expert opinion they blatantly lied about it being a poll? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Current Events > Turnout Data Reveals the Core of Democrats' Success in Special Elections (+) Yeah! (+)

Current Events > Turnout Data Reveals the Core of Democrats' Success in Special Elections