Current Events > Trump Underperformed Polls by 10 to 20 Points' on Super Tuesday

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Humble_Novice
03/07/24 7:05:38 AM
#1:


https://tinyurl.com/vy3m6n9e

University of Sydney Political Scientist Professor Simon Jackman says Donald Trump underperformed his polls by 10 to 20 points on Super Tuesday.

Former US president Donald Trump won 14 of the 15 states up for grabs during the Super Tuesday presidential primaries, with former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley only picking up Vermont.

Haley has now suspended her campaign but has not endorsed Trump.

Theres a lot of data in American politics, and one of the data points a lot of us are looking at today is how Trump underperformed how he did in the polls, Professor Jackman told Sky News Australia.

Theres a lot of people willing to tell a pollster, Yes, Im voting Republican in the primary; Im going to vote for Donald Trump.

On the day, except North Carolina just about every other Super Tuesday state, Trump underperformed his polls by 10 to 20 points.

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lilORANG
03/07/24 7:07:24 AM
#2:


There's not a lot of reason to show up to a primary when the frontrunner is obvious.

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Error1355
03/07/24 7:20:28 AM
#3:


The polls could tell me that every other human in America was going to vote against Trump and I would still arrive at my poll booth to add my own vote against him.

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ai123
03/07/24 7:22:01 AM
#4:


Why would someone lie about voting for Trump?

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GrandConjuraton
03/07/24 7:25:23 AM
#5:


I'm feeling somewhat good about November.

Unless something drastic happens, I think Biden will pull it off. Trump and his candidates keep underperforming and Democrats keep overperforming, so... it seems like a good sign to me.

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Humble_Novice
03/07/24 7:28:02 AM
#6:


GrandConjuraton posted...
I'm feeling somewhat good about November.

Unless something drastic happens, I think Biden will pull it off. Trump and his candidates keep underperforming and Democrats keep overperforming, so... it seems like a good sign to me.
It also helps if more of us convince people we personally know to vote for Biden and the Democrats if they can. Every vote counts.

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ButteryMales
03/07/24 7:29:10 AM
#7:


ai123 posted...
Why would someone lie about voting for Trump?
Ashamed to vote for a Catholic Zionist...
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#8
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ButteryMales
03/07/24 7:43:19 AM
#9:


shockthemonkey posted...
Your gimmick sucks
Nah, I miss the days when I would just make jokes about being Benjamin Ghazi.
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SpawnShadow
03/07/24 7:45:01 AM
#10:


ai123 posted...
Why would someone lie about voting for Trump?
Perhaps they're deep in Trump country and justifiably afraid of being lynched by Trump's cultists if they say they're voting for Biden?
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divot1338
03/07/24 9:08:11 AM
#11:


ai123 posted...
Why would someone lie about voting for Trump?
Reverse shame.

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SilvosForever
03/07/24 9:10:53 AM
#12:


I think Biden will win by more than he did in 2020. Just my prediction. But everyone still has to vote to make it happen of course.

I'm voting even in a state I know where I won't change the result. Because running up the numbers affects future decisions by the political parties.

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bfslick50
03/07/24 9:14:10 AM
#13:


This topic is a ball poll question. Polls are neither 100% trustworthy nor are they complete garbage. Yes there's error. Their best calculations of the margin of error plus sources of bias that can never be completely removed. But they do give a general idea of trends. The majority of the time the majority of the candidates fall within their predicted confidence interval and that's as good as you can expect from polls.

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UnsteadyOwl
03/07/24 9:18:54 AM
#14:


ai123 posted...
Why would someone lie about voting for Trump?
If they live in a very red part of the country they may be afraid of being socially ostracized if they don't at least pretend to support Trump. They might live with a Trump supporter and decide it's going to cause too many problems at home if they say they're going to vote for Biden.

SilvosForever posted...
I think Biden will win by more than he did in 2020. Just my prediction. But everyone still has to vote to make it happen of course.

I'm voting even in a state I know where I won't change the result. Because running up the numbers affects future decisions by the political parties.
I would like if that happens but until it's over I'm going to treat this election as if it's a dead even race.

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legendary_zell
03/07/24 9:24:43 AM
#15:


A primary election is different from a general, especially a primary where the winner was known from the start. I'd love to believe that Trump will greatly underperform his polls in the general as well, but I hoped that last time and he got more votes than in 2016. Why set up narratives that will make liberals let down their guards unnecessarily?

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creativerealms
03/07/24 9:31:13 AM
#16:


I would be more afraid to tell people I hate Trump, then tell people I like Trump. But then again I live in a deep red state.

Though I just avoid political conservations all together. That was I limit my chance of running into MAGAts.

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