Board 8 > Community Mafia Topic 16 - Votals Numerology

(+) Yeah! (+)

Enrolled:
1. Ben
2. Blade
3. Chang
4. Ctes
5. Death
6. FD
7. IGCD
8. Kirby
9. MI
10. Ulti

Expelled:
[LD1] Knightz - Evil Abed, MAFIA Roleblocking Rolecop Dreamateer
[LD2] Wallz - Evil Annie, MAFIA Framing Doppelganger
[KN2] Isquen - Garret, TOWN Vanilla
[LD3] Corrik - Quendra, TOWN Vanilla
[KN3] Sbell - Annie Edison, TOWN Forensics Investigator
[LD4] Peaf - Subway, TOWN Vanilla
[KN4] Mzero (Taco) - Leonard, TOWN Taunter
[LD5] Red - Vicki, TOWN Vanilla

Vanished:
[VD1] Lopen - ???

With ten alive, it takes six to lynch. Day ends Wednesday, May 15th at 6 PM EST.

Notice how quickly Ulti has switched to "MI is town, gut, let him solve" to "MI is scum"

He was trying to pocket me, it didn't work, so he switched back.

I am not upset you didn't vote anything I'm saying I don't follow the train of thought.

And yes, shooting Death only to confirm IGCD wouldn't be the best. I described the worst case scenario in what I think is a shot on scum.

Wouldn't you agree, you had your vote there in the end

Yeah I think IGCD shooting at all kinda proves him

ctesjbuvf posted...

And yes, shooting Death only to confirm IGCD wouldn't be the best. I described the worst case scenario in what I think is a shot on scum.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Wouldn't you agree, you had your vote there in the end

I don't think you seem to understand "between these two, I think this one is more likely to be scum" vs "I think scum is actually over here now that it's not just between these two"

UltimaterializerX posted...

Why?

IGCD, Chang, and ctes all town together is gross. Scum could all be dead by day 3.

which is why i firmly believe

ctes
doesn't
have
a
shot

UltimaterializerX posted...

Why?

IGCD, Chang, and ctes all town together is gross. Scum could all be dead by day 3.

Chang is not an extra kill

But yeah Ctes is the odd one out.

ctesjbuvf posted...

And yes, shooting Death only to confirm IGCD wouldn't be the best. I described the worst case scenario in what I think is a shot on scum.

If you ask me, Death flipping town would confirm four people: Blade, IGCD, you, and Ben.

But nobody seemed to even give me the time of day when I pointed that out. We're at that point of the game where town has gone full-on delusional and won't listen to each other.

I get that.

What I don't get Is thinking Death was the more likely with what you otherwise thought when he should be impossible to it on what you otherwise thought but you spent most of the day making red fit.

The vote in itself I agree with, although it came too late to matter.

Kirby321 posted...

If you ask me, Death flipping town would confirm four people: Blade, IGCD, you, and Ben.

But nobody seemed to even give me the time of day when I pointed that out. We're at that point of the game where town has gone full-on delusional and won't listen to each other.

I forget, why does it confirm Ctes?

Because Ben and Ctes agreed in their chat the IGCD was likely to be the protected person

And scum can never lie in a chat or about what is said in a chat so they had to really believe that

Seriously if yyou're gonna setup meta do a better job at it. The chance that either IGCD or me gets a shot in itself is pretty low compared to how a vig usually has it no constraints. In my case I can die trying to get it. Also scum couldn't be dead by day 3, IGCD couldn't get it that early.

Also it's a pretty convoluted theory you have in first place for how I can be scum despite the innocent scan to begin with ironically on the level of rabbit holes Lopen is often accused of making. Or when everyone agreed a couple of games ago that prosty godfather was ridiculous.

On top of the above I'm listening to

"Ctes is mafia that gave up his powers to scan innocent except he only doesn't have powers longer so probably scum teams pays votes to gain powers all together" or those of you that believe I scan guilty altogerher "uncountered cop probably has the janitored role and immediately claimed a scan on a teammate that doesn't scan innocent even though that could make the whole idea fall apart"

This is trash tier setup meta speculations and yet I have heard people use occums to describe that first one somehow.

TotallyNotMI posted...

Because Ben and Ctes agreed in their chat the IGCD was likely to be the protected person

And scum can never lie in a chat or about what is said in a chat so they had to really believe that

The thing is here that this points everything back to you as at least one scum when all is said and done And I dont know why you would bring this up when scumyou knows I would flip town.

HOWEVER
It is possible that both Ben and Ctes are scum, and they are only pretending to have talked about IGCD being protected to cover up for their mistake in actually trying to shoot IGCD.

I mean Ctes already is clearly planning to never prove that he can shoot someone.

htaeD posted...

I forget, why does it confirm Ctes?

Ctes and Ben both openly admitted that they thought IGCD would draw protection. As such, the scum person in that pair would likely avoid shooting IGCD and instead go for protection like Blade or me.

If you flip town, however, that confirms scum tried to shoot IGCD. Scum Ben or scum Ctes wouldn't make that shot, given their neighbor chat. Therefore, Ben and Ctes are both cleared.

This falls through if both Ben and Ctes are scum, since they could retroactively fib about their neighbor chat, but I doubt both of them are scum. I doubt even more that scum Ben would neighborize his teammate instead of trying to manipulate town like Ulti or Blade.

htaeD posted...

I mean Ctes already is clearly planning to never prove that he can shoot someone.

You make it sound like a town Ctes even has an easy choice to earn his shot lol

The odds are stacked against Ctes. Ben is 100% right. Ctes earning a double vote to clear himself is far valuable than Ctes just dying a pitiful offscreen death.

I think this game state is pretty easy to solve now

Unconditionally Town
Chang (vote control role, highly unlikely to be scum)
Kirby (blocked N1 kill and confirmed roleblock after scum roleblocker flip)
Ulti (roleblocked in a position where it makes sense for him to deliver the kill, but kill happened anyway)
FD (flavor meta is strongly in his favor)

Town Confirmed if Death is Town
Ben (could have avoided shooting IGCD)
Blade (protected IGCD)
Ctes (could have avoided shooting IGCD)
IGCD (would've been shot at)

No compelling reason to believe is town
MI

Jailkept on a NK night and is highly likely scum
Death

To me, the optimal path to take is shoot Death, lynch MI. Only then is it worthwhile to start questioning our power roles to see who is the dirty liar.

Kirby, this is not the first time you've posted something as if scum can't lie

Let's assume town-Ben and scum-Ctes.

Scum chat is certain that Kirby will be protected so they put a kill in on IGCD.
Ben says in neighbor chat 'oh yeah, I think IGCD will be protected'.
Scum ctes goes 'oh yeah totally I agree' while laughing to himself because he thinks man that is wrong and Ben is a fool only for that to backfire!

htaeD posted...

I mean Ctes already is clearly planning to never prove that he can shoot someone.

Sure just ignore how fatal proving that can potentially be and how no one would have guessed correctly so far.

This is the same player that with two protection roles still alive supposedly thought it would be better if we had a town die at night.

Ctes with two protection roles out there did you consider picking no kill to earn a double vote?

Ulti would have had to report an innocent scan on me of kirby didn't block him.

So kirby calling for my head so fiercely really irks me

Then again I guess ulti could have been planning a scan on someone else and only lied that he targeted me after he was blocked

Kirby321 posted...

You make it sound like a town Ctes even has an easy choice to earn his shot lol

The odds are stacked against Ctes. Ben is 100% right. Ctes earning a double vote to clear himself is far valuable than Ctes just dying a pitiful offscreen death.

I guess that makes sense. But at this rate he is never gonna earn that vote.
Plus the odds of them both being scum is less than average.

Well, for me absolutely nothing changes because I already know I'm innocent.

TotallyNotMI posted...

Ctes with two protection roles out there did you consider picking no kill to earn a double vote?

Yeah I think I mentioned it already, I did consider it a decent bit. I actually sat within minutes of deadline being very unsure what to do. I thought something like how me losing my vote and Ulti claiming something was better than if I was wrong on the no kill and Ulti was dead. I also had Ben's opinion on that.

But yeah it's frustrating to sit and consider.

Im having an insane day at work and wont be very available but the argument to clear ben and ctes because they discussed IGCD being protected is garbage

ctes is 99% cleared if death flips is correct (supposing death is godfather)

ben is not cleared. You dont think scum discussed whether IGCD would be protected?

TotallyNotMI posted...

Kirby, this is not the first time you've posted something as if scum can't lie

Let's assume town-Ben and scum-Ctes.

Scum chat is certain that Kirby will be protected so they put a kill in on IGCD.
Ben says in neighbor chat 'oh yeah, I think IGCD will be protected'.
Scum ctes goes 'oh yeah totally I agree' while laughing to himself because he thinks man that is wrong and Ben is a fool only for that to backfire!

I mean let's be honest shooting IGCD would be a major faux pas, so odds are likelier that Death is scum and I blocked his kill

TotallyNotMI posted...

If Death is town it confirms IGCD is horrible logic since no one doubts IGCD at all.

I'm not sure I understand the point of this post

frankly scum should have expected ctes to make the cowards play

Therefore a cheeky shot on IGCD = zero town vigs

IfGodCouldDie posted...

I'm not sure I understand the point of this post

That I don't like people saying death is the right choice for you to shoot becuase it clears you if he flips town.

You don't need to be cleared.

UltimaterializerX posted...

The bit about IGCD being alive is good, outside one thing. Someone else could have sent the kill in.

What does this even mean

There are exactly four possibilities for why NK happened last night.

1) Town IGCD was protected
2) Scum Death was roleblocked from killing
3) Town Death was protected (lol)
4) Scum decided to not kill (omegalol)

Either Death delivered the kill or he didn't. If he flips town, then duh, of course somebody else had to deliver the kill ffs

Kirby321 posted...

I mean let's be honest shooting IGCD would be a major faux pas, so odds are likelier that Death is scum and I blocked his kill

Well you're about to have your faith in scum shot again

Out of curiosity who brought up the possibility of IGCD being saved first

changmas posted...

frankly scum should have expected ctes to make the cowards play

I did consider it and probbaly will every night but sure, they will still want me to guess wrong.

changmas posted...

ben is not cleared. You dont think scum discussed whether IGCD would be protected?

Why does scum Ben persuade Ctes to go for the double vote instead of letting him follow your plan to kill himself